Sean Kulinski

Sean Kulinski, David I. Inouye

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

Zeyu Zhou, Ruqi Bai, Sean Kulinski et al.

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables, such as pixels in images. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), which may be infeasible in practice due to requiring strong assumptions, e.g., linearity of the causal mechanisms or perfect atomic interventions. Meanwhile, more practical ML-based approaches using naive domain translation models to generate counterfactual samples lack theoretical grounding and may construct invalid counterfactuals. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by analyzing a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). We show that recovering the latent SCM is unnecessary for estimating domain counterfactuals, thereby sidestepping some of the theoretic challenges. By assuming invertibility and sparsity of intervention, we prove domain counterfactual estimation error can be bounded by a data fit term and intervention sparsity term. Building upon our theoretical results, we develop a theoretically grounded practical algorithm that simplifies the modeling process to generative model estimation under autoregressive and shared parameter constraints that enforce intervention sparsity. Finally, we show an improvement in counterfactual estimation over baseline methods through extensive simulated and image-based experiments.

Sean Kulinski, Nicholas R. Waytowich, James Z. Hare et al.

Spatial reasoning tasks in multi-agent environments such as event prediction, agent type identification, or missing data imputation are important for multiple applications (e.g., autonomous surveillance over sensor networks and subtasks for reinforcement learning (RL)). StarCraft II game replays encode intelligent (and adversarial) multi-agent behavior and could provide a testbed for these tasks; however, extracting simple and standardized representations for prototyping these tasks is laborious and hinders reproducibility. In contrast, MNIST and CIFAR10, despite their extreme simplicity, have enabled rapid prototyping and reproducibility of ML methods. Following the simplicity of these datasets, we construct a benchmark spatial reasoning dataset based on StarCraft II replays that exhibit complex multi-agent behaviors, while still being as easy to use as MNIST and CIFAR10. Specifically, we carefully summarize a window of 255 consecutive game states to create 3.6 million summary images from 60,000 replays, including all relevant metadata such as game outcome and player races. We develop three formats of decreasing complexity: Hyperspectral images that include one channel for every unit type (similar to multispectral geospatial images), RGB images that mimic CIFAR10, and grayscale images that mimic MNIST. We show how this dataset can be used for prototyping spatial reasoning methods. All datasets, code for extraction, and code for dataset loading can be found at https://starcraftdata.davidinouye.com

Jonathan D. Chang, Andrew Drozdov, Shubham Toshniwal et al.

We present a system for training enterprise search agents via reinforcement learning that achieves state-of-the-art performance across a diverse suite of hard-to-verify agentic search tasks. Our work makes four core contributions. First, we introduce KARLBench, a multi-capability evaluation suite spanning six distinct search regimes, including constraint-driven entity search, cross-document report synthesis, tabular numerical reasoning, exhaustive entity retrieval, procedural reasoning over technical documentation, and fact aggregation over internal enterprise notes. Second, we show that models trained across heterogeneous search behaviors generalize substantially better than those optimized for any single benchmark. Third, we develop an agentic synthesis pipeline that employs long-horizon reasoning and tool use to generate diverse, grounded, and high-quality training data, with iterative bootstrapping from increasingly capable models. Fourth, we propose a new post-training paradigm based on iterative large-batch off-policy RL that is sample efficient, robust to train-inference engine discrepancies, and naturally extends to multi-task training with out-of-distribution generalization. Compared to Claude 4.6 and GPT 5.2, KARL is Pareto-optimal on KARLBench across cost-quality and latency-quality trade-offs, including tasks that were out-of-distribution during training. With sufficient test-time compute, it surpasses the strongest closed models. These results show that tailored synthetic data in combination with multi-task reinforcement learning enables cost-efficient and high-performing knowledge agents for grounded reasoning.

Alnur Ali, Ashutosh Baheti, Jonathan Chang et al.

Developing custom reasoning models via Reinforcement Learning (RL) that can incorporate organization-specific knowledge has great potential to address problems faced by enterprise customers. In many of these problems, the reward function is verifiable, a setting termed RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). We apply RLVR to a popular data science benchmark called BIRD that measures the ability of an AI agent to convert a natural language query for a database to SQL executions. We apply a simple and general-purpose training recipe involving careful prompt and model selection, a warm-up stage using our offline RL approach called TAO, followed by rigorous online RLVR training. With no additional training data beyond the BIRD training set and no use of proprietary models, our very first submission to the BIRD leaderboard reached state-of-the-art accuracy on the private test set: 73.56% without self-consistency and 75.68% with self-consistency. In the latter case, our model also required fewer generations than the second-best approach. While BIRD is only a proxy task, the simplicity of our framework makes it broadly applicable to enterprise domains such as business intelligence, data science, and coding.

Sean Kulinski, Saurabh Bagchi, David I. Inouye

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.