Wencong Cheng

Wencong Cheng, Yan Yan, Jiangjiang Xia et al.

Recently, multiple data-driven models based on machine learning for weather forecasting have emerged. These models are highly competitive in terms of accuracy compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In particular, the Pangu-Weather model, which is open source for non-commercial use, has been validated for its forecasting performance by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and has recently been published in the journal "Nature". In this paper, we evaluate the compatibility of the Pangu-Weather model with several commonly used NWP operational analyses through case studies. The results indicate that the Pangu-Weather model is compatible with different operational analyses from various NWP systems as the model initial conditions, and it exhibits a relatively stable forecasting capability. Furthermore, we have verified that improving the quality of global or local initial conditions significantly contributes to enhancing the forecasting performance of the Pangu-Weather model.

Tianye Li, Qi Liu, Hao Li et al.

Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal periodicity. In addition, conventional autoregressive training is computationally expensive and limits forecast horizons due to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we propose the Shifted Earth Transformer (Searth Transformer), a physics-informed architecture that incorporates zonal periodicity and meridional boundaries into window-based self-attention for physically consistent global information exchange. We further introduce a Relay Autoregressive (RAR) fine-tuning strategy that enables learning long-range atmospheric evolution under constrained memory and computational budgets. Based on these methods, we develop YanTian, a global medium-range weather forecasting model. YanTian achieves higher accuracy than the high-resolution forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and performs competitively with state-of-the-art AI models at one-degree resolution, while requiring roughly 200 times lower computational cost than standard autoregressive fine-tuning. Furthermore, YanTian attains a longer skillful forecast lead time for Z500 (10.3 days) than HRES (9 days). Beyond weather forecasting, this work establishes a robust algorithmic foundation for predictive modeling of complex global-scale geophysical circulation systems, offering new pathways for Earth system science.

Fang Huang, Wencong Cheng, PanFeng Wang et al.

Meteorological satellite imagery is critical for meteorologists. The data have played an important role in monitoring and analyzing weather and climate changes. However, satellite imagery is a kind of observation data and exists a significant time delay when transmitting the data back to Earth. It is important to make accurate predictions for meteorological satellite images, especially the nowcasting prediction up to 2 hours ahead. In recent years, there has been growing interest in the research of nowcasting prediction applications of weather radar images based on deep learning. Compared to the weather radar images prediction problem, the main challenge for meteorological satellite images prediction is the large-scale observation areas and therefore the large sizes of the observation products. Here we present a deep multi-scales extrapolation fusion method, to address the challenge of the meteorological satellite images nowcasting prediction. First, we downsample the original satellite images dataset with large size to several images datasets with smaller resolutions, then we use a deep spatiotemporal sequences prediction method to generate the multi-scales prediction images with different resolutions separately. Second, we fuse the multi-scales prediction results to the targeting prediction images with the original size by a conditional generative adversarial network. The experiments based on the FY-4A meteorological satellite data show that the proposed method can generate realistic prediction images that effectively capture the evolutions of the weather systems in detail. We believe that the general idea of this work can be potentially applied to other spatiotemporal sequence prediction tasks with a large size.

Wencong Cheng

Meteorology satellite visible light images is critical for meteorology support and forecast. However, there is no such kind of data during night time. To overcome this, we propose a method based on deep learning to create synthetic satellite visible light images during night. Specifically, to produce more realistic products, we train a Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) model to generate visible light images given the corresponding satellite infrared images and numerical weather prediction(NWP) products. To better model the nonlinear relationship from infrared data and NWP products to visible light images, we propose to use the channel-wise attention mechanics, e.g., SEBlock to quantitative weight the input channels. The experiments based on the ECMWF NWP products and FY-4A meteorology satellite visible light and infrared channels date show that the proposed methods can be effective to create realistic synthetic satellite visible light images during night.