Leo Anthony Celi

Eric Lehman, Vladislav Lialin, Katelyn Y. Legaspi et al.

Existing question answering (QA) datasets derived from electronic health records (EHR) are artificially generated and consequently fail to capture realistic physician information needs. We present Discharge Summary Clinical Questions (DiSCQ), a newly curated question dataset composed of 2,000+ questions paired with the snippets of text (triggers) that prompted each question. The questions are generated by medical experts from 100+ MIMIC-III discharge summaries. We analyze this dataset to characterize the types of information sought by medical experts. We also train baseline models for trigger detection and question generation (QG), paired with unsupervised answer retrieval over EHRs. Our baseline model is able to generate high quality questions in over 62% of cases when prompted with human selected triggers. We release this dataset (and all code to reproduce baseline model results) to facilitate further research into realistic clinical QA and QG: https://github.com/elehman16/discq.

Hammaad Adam, Ming Ying Yang, Kenrick Cato et al.

Clinical notes are becoming an increasingly important data source for machine learning (ML) applications in healthcare. Prior research has shown that deploying ML models can perpetuate existing biases against racial minorities, as bias can be implicitly embedded in data. In this study, we investigate the level of implicit race information available to ML models and human experts and the implications of model-detectable differences in clinical notes. Our work makes three key contributions. First, we find that models can identify patient self-reported race from clinical notes even when the notes are stripped of explicit indicators of race. Second, we determine that human experts are not able to accurately predict patient race from the same redacted clinical notes. Finally, we demonstrate the potential harm of this implicit information in a simulation study, and show that models trained on these race-redacted clinical notes can still perpetuate existing biases in clinical treatment decisions.

Mohamed Elgaar, Jiali Cheng, Nidhi Vakil et al.

Medical decisions directly impact individuals' health and well-being. Extracting decision spans from clinical notes plays a crucial role in understanding medical decision-making processes. In this paper, we develop a new dataset called "MedDec", which contains clinical notes of eleven different phenotypes (diseases) annotated by ten types of medical decisions. We introduce the task of medical decision extraction, aiming to jointly extract and classify different types of medical decisions within clinical notes. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the dataset, develop a span detection model as a baseline for this task, evaluate recent span detection approaches, and employ a few metrics to measure the complexity of data samples. Our findings shed light on the complexities inherent in clinical decision extraction and enable future work in this area of research. The dataset and code are available through https://github.com/CLU-UML/MedDec.

Ryan Wang, Li-Ching Chen, Lama Moukheiber et al.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most common chronic illnesses in the world and the third leading cause of mortality worldwide. It is often underdiagnosed or not diagnosed until later in the disease course. Spirometry tests are the gold standard for diagnosing COPD but can be difficult to obtain, especially in resource-poor countries. Chest X-rays (CXRs), however, are readily available and may serve as a screening tool to identify patients with COPD who should undergo further testing. Currently, no research applies deep learning (DL) algorithms that use large multi-site and multi-modal data to detect COPD patients and evaluate fairness across demographic groups. We use three CXR datasets in our study, CheXpert to pre-train models, MIMIC-CXR to develop, and Emory-CXR to validate our models. The CXRs from patients in the early stage of COPD and not on mechanical ventilation are selected for model training and validation. We visualize the Grad-CAM heatmaps of the true positive cases on the base model for both MIMIC-CXR and Emory-CXR test datasets. We further propose two fusion schemes, (1) model-level fusion, including bagging and stacking methods using MIMIC-CXR, and (2) data-level fusion, including multi-site data using MIMIC-CXR and Emory-CXR, and multi-modal using MIMIC-CXRs and MIMIC-IV EHR, to improve the overall model performance. Fairness analysis is performed to evaluate if the fusion schemes have a discrepancy in the performance among different demographic groups. The results demonstrate that DL models can detect COPD using CXRs, which can facilitate early screening, especially in low-resource regions where CXRs are more accessible than spirometry. The multi-site data fusion scheme could improve the model generalizability on the Emory-CXR test data. Further studies on using CXR or other modalities to predict COPD ought to be in future work.

Jonathan A. Sobel, Ronit Almog, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

A datathon is a time-constrained competition involving data science applied to a specific problem. In the past decade, datathons have been shown to be a valuable bridge between fields and expertise . Biomedical data analysis represents a challenging area requiring collaboration between engineers, biologists and physicians to gain a better understanding of patient physiology and of guide decision processes for diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutic interventions to improve care practice. Here, we reflect on the outcomes of an event that we organized in Israel at the end of March 2022 between the MIT Critical Data group, Rambam Health Care Campus (Rambam) and the Technion Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) in Haifa. Participants were asked to complete a survey about their skills and interests, which enabled us to identify current needs in machine learning training for medical problem applications. This work describes opportunities and limitations in medical data science in the Israeli context.

Changho Han, Songsoo Kim, Dong Won Kim et al.

Large language models (LLMs), trained on vast datasets, encode extensive real-world knowledge within their parameters, yet their black-box nature obscures the mechanisms and extent of this encoding. Surrogate modeling, which uses simplified models to approximate complex systems, can offer a path toward better interpretability of black-box models. We propose a surrogate modeling framework that quantitatively explains LLM-encoded knowledge. For a specific hypothesis derived from domain knowledge, this framework approximates the latent LLM knowledge space using observable elements (input-output pairs) through extensive prompting across a comprehensive range of simulated scenarios. Through proof-of-concept experiments in medical predictions, we demonstrate our framework's effectiveness in revealing the extent to which LLMs "perceive" each input variable in relation to the output. Particularly, given concerns that LLMs may perpetuate inaccuracies and societal biases embedded in their training data, our experiments using this framework quantitatively revealed both associations that contradict established medical knowledge and the persistence of scientifically refuted racial assumptions within LLM-encoded knowledge. By disclosing these issues, our framework can act as a red-flag indicator to support the safe and reliable application of these models.

Mingxuan Liu, Yilin Ning, Salinelat Teixayavong et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated the ability to extract insights from data, but the issue of fairness remains a concern in high-stakes fields such as healthcare. Despite extensive discussion and efforts in algorithm development, AI fairness and clinical concerns have not been adequately addressed. In this paper, we discuss the misalignment between technical and clinical perspectives of AI fairness, highlight the barriers to AI fairness' translation to healthcare, advocate multidisciplinary collaboration to bridge the knowledge gap, and provide possible solutions to address the clinical concerns pertaining to AI fairness.

Gregory Holste, Yiliang Zhou, Song Wang et al.

Many real-world image recognition problems, such as diagnostic medical imaging exams, are "long-tailed" $\unicode{x2013}$ there are a few common findings followed by many more relatively rare conditions. In chest radiography, diagnosis is both a long-tailed and multi-label problem, as patients often present with multiple findings simultaneously. While researchers have begun to study the problem of long-tailed learning in medical image recognition, few have studied the interaction of label imbalance and label co-occurrence posed by long-tailed, multi-label disease classification. To engage with the research community on this emerging topic, we conducted an open challenge, CXR-LT, on long-tailed, multi-label thorax disease classification from chest X-rays (CXRs). We publicly release a large-scale benchmark dataset of over 350,000 CXRs, each labeled with at least one of 26 clinical findings following a long-tailed distribution. We synthesize common themes of top-performing solutions, providing practical recommendations for long-tailed, multi-label medical image classification. Finally, we use these insights to propose a path forward involving vision-language foundation models for few- and zero-shot disease classification.

Eran Zvuloni, Leo Anthony Celi, Joachim A. Behar

The scientific community is increasingly recognizing the importance of generalization in medical AI for translating research into practical clinical applications. A three-level scale is introduced to characterize out-of-distribution generalization performance of medical AI models. This scale addresses the diversity of real-world medical scenarios as well as whether target domain data and labels are available for model recalibration. It serves as a tool to help researchers characterize their development settings and determine the best approach to tackling the challenge of out-of-distribution generalization.

Carolina A. M. Heming, Mohamed Abdalla, Shahram Mohanna et al.

Clinical AI model reporting cards should be expanded to incorporate a broad bias reporting of both social and non-social factors. Non-social factors consider the role of other factors, such as disease dependent, anatomic, or instrument factors on AI model bias, which are essential to ensure safe deployment.

Sebastian Cajas, Ashaba Judith, Rahul Gorijavolu et al.

Latent diffusion models for medical image super-resolution universally inherit variational autoencoders designed for natural photographs. We show that this default choice, not the diffusion architecture, is the dominant constraint on reconstruction quality. In a controlled experiment holding all other pipeline components fixed, replacing the generic Stable Diffusion VAE with MedVAE, a domain-specific autoencoder pretrained on more than 1.6 million medical images, yields +2.91 to +3.29 dB PSNR improvement across knee MRI, brain MRI, and chest X-ray (n = 1,820; Cohen's d = 1.37 to 1.86, all p < 10^{-20}, Wilcoxon signed-rank). Wavelet decomposition localises the advantage to the finest spatial frequency bands encoding anatomically relevant fine structure. Ablations across inference schedules, prediction targets, and generative architectures confirm the gap is stable within plus or minus 0.15 dB, while hallucination rates remain comparable between methods (Cohen's h < 0.02 across all datasets), establishing that reconstruction fidelity and generative hallucination are governed by independent pipeline components. These results provide a practical screening criterion: autoencoder reconstruction quality, measurable without diffusion training, predicts downstream SR performance (R^2 = 0.67), suggesting that domain-specific VAE selection should precede diffusion architecture search. Code and trained model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/sebasmos/latent-sr.

Thomas Sounack, Raffaele Giancotti, Catherine A. Gao et al.

Analytical code is essential for reproducing diagnostic and prognostic prediction model research, yet code availability in the published literature remains limited. While the TRIPOD statements set standards for reporting prediction model methods, they do not define explicit standards for repository structure and documentation. This review quantifies current code-sharing practices to inform the development of TRIPOD-Code, a TRIPOD extension reporting guideline focused on code sharing. We conducted a scoping review of PubMed-indexed articles citing TRIPOD or TRIPOD+AI as of Aug 11, 2025, restricted to studies retrievable via the PubMed Central Open Access API. Eligible studies developed, updated, or validated multivariable prediction models. A large language model-assisted pipeline was developed to screen articles and extract code availability statements and repository links. Repositories were assessed with the same LLM against 14 predefined reproducibility-related features. Our code is made publicly available. Among 3,967 eligible articles, 12.2% included code sharing statements. Code sharing increased over time, reaching 15.8% in 2025, and was higher among TRIPOD+AI-citing studies than TRIPOD-citing studies. Sharing prevalence varied widely by journal and country. Repository assessment showed substantial heterogeneity in reproducibility features: most repositories contained a README file (80.5%), but fewer specified dependencies (37.6%; version-constrained 21.6%) or were modular (42.4%). In prediction model research, code sharing remains relatively uncommon, and when shared, often falls short of being reusable. These findings provide an empirical baseline for the TRIPOD-Code extension and underscore the need for clearer expectations beyond code availability, including documentation, dependency specification, licensing, and executable structure.

Donna Tjandra, Trenton Chang, Sonali Parbhoo et al.

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational data. We present a roadmap for applying causal ML to observational data. Materials and methods: We outline the importance of assessing validity assumptions within available data and applying causal ML responsibly for clinical experts using causal ML and ML practitioners with limited clinical expertise. Observations: Despite advances in causal ML, its limitations remain largely under-appreciated across disciplines. This gap in shared knowledge may impact the validity of findings. Discussion: Causal assumptions must be satisfied and modeling choices justified. Otherwise, these approaches risk producing biased or misleading results, with consequences for clinical research and patient care. Conclusion: Causal ML can be a powerful tool for generating causal hypotheses. We provide a template to strengthen the rigor and interpretability of causal analyses.

Sebastian Cajas Ordóñez, Felipe Ocampo Osorio, Dax Enshan Koh et al.

We provide evidence of quantum kernel advantage under noiseless simulation in binary insurance classification on MIMIC-CXR chest radiographs using quantum support vector machines (QSVM) with frozen embeddings from three medical foundation models (MedSigLIP-448, RAD-DINO, ViT-patch32). We propose a two-tier fair comparison framework in which both classifiers receive identical PCA-q features. At Tier 1 (untuned QSVM vs. untuned linear SVM, C = 1 both sides), QSVM wins minority-class F1 in all 18 tested configurations (17 at p < 0.001, 1 at p < 0.01). The classical linear kernel collapses to majority-class prediction on 90-100% of seeds at every qubit count, while QSVM maintains non-trivial recall. At q = 11 (MedSigLIP-448 plateau center), QSVM achieves mean F1 = 0.343 vs. classical F1 = 0.050 (F1 gain = +0.293, p < 0.001) without hyperparameter tuning. Under Tier 2 (untuned QSVM vs. C-tuned RBF SVM), QSVM wins all seven tested configurations (mean gain +0.068, max +0.112). Eigenspectrum analysis reveals quantum kernel effective rank reaches 69.80 at q = 11, far exceeding linear kernel rank, while classical collapse remains C-invariant. A full qubit sweep reveals architecture-dependent concentration onset across models. Code: https://github.com/sebasmos/qml-medimage

Jiageng Wu, Bowen Gu, Ren Zhou et al. · harvard, mit

Large language models (LLMs) hold great promise for medical applications and are evolving rapidly, with new models being released at an accelerated pace. However, benchmarking on large-scale real-world data such as electronic health records (EHRs) is critical, as clinical decisions are directly informed by these sources, yet current evaluations remain limited. Most existing benchmarks rely on medical exam-style questions or PubMed-derived text, failing to capture the complexity of real-world clinical data. Others focus narrowly on specific application scenarios, limiting their generalizability across broader clinical use. To address this gap, we present BRIDGE, a comprehensive multilingual benchmark comprising 87 tasks sourced from real-world clinical data sources across nine languages. It covers eight major task types spanning the entire continuum of patient care across six clinical stages and 20 representative applications, including triage and referral, consultation, information extraction, diagnosis, prognosis, and billing coding, and involves 14 clinical specialties. We systematically evaluated 95 LLMs (including DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4o, Gemini series, and Qwen3 series) under various inference strategies. Our results reveal substantial performance variation across model sizes, languages, natural language processing tasks, and clinical specialties. Notably, we demonstrate that open-source LLMs can achieve performance comparable to proprietary models, while medically fine-tuned LLMs based on older architectures often underperform versus updated general-purpose models. The BRIDGE and its corresponding leaderboard serve as a foundational resource and a unique reference for the development and evaluation of new LLMs in real-world clinical text understanding. The BRIDGE leaderboard: https://huggingface.co/spaces/YLab-Open/BRIDGE-Medical-Leaderboard

Chi-Yu Chen, Rawan Abulibdeh, Arash Asgari et al.

Artificial intelligence is revealing what medicine never intended to encode. Deep vision models, trained on chest X-rays, can now detect not only disease but also invisible traces of social inequality. In this study, we show that state-of-the-art architectures (DenseNet121, SwinV2-B, MedMamba) can predict a patient's health insurance type, a strong proxy for socioeconomic status, from normal chest X-rays with significant accuracy (AUC around 0.67 on MIMIC-CXR-JPG, 0.68 on CheXpert). The signal persists even when age, race, and sex are controlled for, and remains detectable when the model is trained exclusively on a single racial group. Patch-based occlusion reveals that the signal is diffuse rather than localized, embedded in the upper and mid-thoracic regions. This suggests that deep networks may be internalizing subtle traces of clinical environments, equipment differences, or care pathways; learning socioeconomic segregation itself. These findings challenge the assumption that medical images are neutral biological data. By uncovering how models perceive and exploit these hidden social signatures, this work reframes fairness in medical AI: the goal is no longer only to balance datasets or adjust thresholds, but to interrogate and disentangle the social fingerprints embedded in clinical data itself.

Xiao Xiang, David Restrepo, Hyewon Jeong et al.

Learning from electronic health records (EHRs) time series is challenging due to irregular sam- pling, heterogeneous missingness, and the resulting sparsity of observations. Prior self-supervised meth- ods either impute before learning, represent missingness through a dedicated input signal, or optimize solely for imputation, reducing their capacity to efficiently learn representations that support clinical downstream tasks. We propose the Augmented-Intrinsic Dual-Masked Autoencoder (AID-MAE), which learns directly from incomplete time series by applying an intrinsic missing mask to represent naturally missing values and an augmented mask that hides a subset of observed values for reconstruction during training. AID-MAE processes only the unmasked subset of tokens and consistently outperforms strong baselines, including XGBoost and DuETT, across multiple clinical tasks on two datasets. In addition, the learned embeddings naturally stratify patient cohorts in the representation space.

Rajna Fani, Rafi Al Attrach, David Restrepo et al.

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking, implicitly assuming all features are equally predictable. In reality, laboratory tests exhibit substantial heterogeneity in volatility: some biomarkers (e.g., sodium) remain stable, while others (e.g., lactate) fluctuate considerably and are more difficult to model. Clinically, volatile biomarkers often signal acute pathophysiology and require more sophisticated modeling to capture their complex temporal patterns. We propose a volatility-aware pretraining strategy, Coefficient of Variation Masking (CV-Masking), that adaptively adjusts masking probabilities according to the intrinsic variability of each feature. Combined with a value-only masking objective aligned with clinical workflows, CV-Masking yields systematic improvements over random and variance-based strategies. Experiments on a large panel of laboratory tests show that CV-Masking enhances reconstruction, improves downstream predictive performance, and accelerates convergence, producing more robust and clinically meaningful EHR representations.

Sebastián Andrés Cajas Ordóñez, Luis Fernando Torres Torres, Mackenzie J. Meni et al.

Deploying deep neural networks on resource-constrained devices faces two critical challenges: maintaining accuracy under aggressive quantization while ensuring predictable inference latency. We present a curiosity-driven quantized Mixture-of-Experts framework that addresses both through Bayesian epistemic uncertainty-based routing across heterogeneous experts (BitNet ternary, 1-16 bit BitLinear, post-training quantization). Evaluated on audio classification benchmarks (ESC-50, Quinn, UrbanSound8K), our 4-bit quantization maintains 99.9 percent of 16-bit accuracy (0.858 vs 0.859 F1) with 4x compression and 41 percent energy savings versus 8-bit. Crucially, curiosity-driven routing reduces MoE latency variance by 82 percent (p = 0.008, Levene's test) from 230 ms to 29 ms standard deviation, enabling stable inference for battery-constrained devices. Statistical analysis confirms 4-bit/8-bit achieve practical equivalence with full precision (p > 0.05), while MoE architectures introduce 11 percent latency overhead (p < 0.001) without accuracy gains. At scale, deployment emissions dominate training by 10000x for models serving more than 1,000 inferences, making inference efficiency critical. Our information-theoretic routing demonstrates that adaptive quantization yields accurate (0.858 F1, 1.2M params), energy-efficient (3.87 F1/mJ), and predictable edge models, with simple 4-bit quantized architectures outperforming complex MoE for most deployments.

Rafi Al Attrach, Pedro Moreira, Rajna Fani et al.

As ever-larger clinical datasets become available, they have the potential to unlock unprecedented opportunities for medical research. Foremost among them is Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV), the world's largest open-source EHR database. However, the inherent complexity of these datasets, particularly the need for sophisticated querying skills and the need to understand the underlying clinical settings, often presents a significant barrier to their effective use. M3 lowers the technical barrier to understanding and querying MIMIC-IV data. With a single command it retrieves MIMIC-IV from PhysioNet, launches a local SQLite instance (or hooks into the hosted BigQuery), and-via the Model Context Protocol (MCP)-lets researchers converse with the database in plain English. Ask a clinical question in natural language; M3 uses a language model to translate it into SQL, executes the query against the MIMIC-IV dataset, and returns structured results alongside the underlying query for verifiability and reproducibility. Demonstrations show that minutes of dialogue with M3 yield the kind of nuanced cohort analyses that once demanded hours of handcrafted SQL and relied on understanding the complexities of clinical workflows. By simplifying access, M3 invites the broader research community to mine clinical critical-care data and accelerates the translation of raw records into actionable insight.

Jack Gallifant, Shan Chen, Pedro Moreira et al.

Medical knowledge is context-dependent and requires consistent reasoning across various natural language expressions of semantically equivalent phrases. This is particularly crucial for drug names, where patients often use brand names like Advil or Tylenol instead of their generic equivalents. To study this, we create a new robustness dataset, RABBITS, to evaluate performance differences on medical benchmarks after swapping brand and generic drug names using physician expert annotations. We assess both open-source and API-based LLMs on MedQA and MedMCQA, revealing a consistent performance drop ranging from 1-10\%. Furthermore, we identify a potential source of this fragility as the contamination of test data in widely used pre-training datasets. All code is accessible at https://github.com/BittermanLab/RABBITS, and a HuggingFace leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/AIM-Harvard/rabbits-leaderboard.

Joy Tzung-yu Wu, Miguel Ángel Armengol de la Hoz, Po-Chih Kuo et al.

The unprecedented global crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked numerous efforts to create predictive models for the detection and prognostication of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the goal of helping health systems allocate resources. Machine learning models, in particular, hold promise for their ability to leverage patient clinical information and medical images for prediction. However, most of the published COVID-19 prediction models thus far have little clinical utility due to methodological flaws and lack of appropriate validation. In this paper, we describe our methodology to develop and validate multi-modal models for COVID-19 mortality prediction using multi-center patient data. The models for COVID-19 mortality prediction were developed using retrospective data from Madrid, Spain (N=2547) and were externally validated in patient cohorts from a community hospital in New Jersey, USA (N=242) and an academic center in Seoul, Republic of Korea (N=336). The models we developed performed differently across various clinical settings, underscoring the need for a guided strategy when employing machine learning for clinical decision-making. We demonstrated that using features from both the structured electronic health records and chest X-ray imaging data resulted in better 30-day-mortality prediction performance across all three datasets (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.87), 0.76 (0.70-0.82), and 0.95 (0.92-0.98)). We discuss the rationale for the decisions made at every step in developing the models and have made our code available to the research community. We employed the best machine learning practices for clinical model development. Our goal is to create a toolkit that would assist investigators and organizations in building multi-modal models for prediction, classification and/or optimization.

Stephen R. Pfohl, Heather Cole-Lewis, Rory Sayres et al.

Large language models (LLMs) hold promise to serve complex health information needs but also have the potential to introduce harm and exacerbate health disparities. Reliably evaluating equity-related model failures is a critical step toward developing systems that promote health equity. We present resources and methodologies for surfacing biases with potential to precipitate equity-related harms in long-form, LLM-generated answers to medical questions and conduct a large-scale empirical case study with the Med-PaLM 2 LLM. Our contributions include a multifactorial framework for human assessment of LLM-generated answers for biases, and EquityMedQA, a collection of seven datasets enriched for adversarial queries. Both our human assessment framework and dataset design process are grounded in an iterative participatory approach and review of Med-PaLM 2 answers. Through our empirical study, we find that our approach surfaces biases that may be missed via narrower evaluation approaches. Our experience underscores the importance of using diverse assessment methodologies and involving raters of varying backgrounds and expertise. While our approach is not sufficient to holistically assess whether the deployment of an AI system promotes equitable health outcomes, we hope that it can be leveraged and built upon towards a shared goal of LLMs that promote accessible and equitable healthcare.

David Restrepo, Chenwei Wu, Constanza Vásquez-Venegas et al.

In the big data era, integrating diverse data modalities poses significant challenges, particularly in complex fields like healthcare. This paper introduces a new process model for multimodal Data Fusion for Data Mining, integrating embeddings and the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining with the existing Data Fusion Information Group model. Our model aims to decrease computational costs, complexity, and bias while improving efficiency and reliability. We also propose "disentangled dense fusion", a novel embedding fusion method designed to optimize mutual information and facilitate dense inter-modality feature interaction, thereby minimizing redundant information. We demonstrate the model's efficacy through three use cases: predicting diabetic retinopathy using retinal images and patient metadata, domestic violence prediction employing satellite imagery, internet, and census data, and identifying clinical and demographic features from radiography images and clinical notes. The model achieved a Macro F1 score of 0.92 in diabetic retinopathy prediction, an R-squared of 0.854 and sMAPE of 24.868 in domestic violence prediction, and a macro AUC of 0.92 and 0.99 for disease prediction and sex classification, respectively, in radiological analysis. These results underscore the Data Fusion for Data Mining model's potential to significantly impact multimodal data processing, promoting its adoption in diverse, resource-constrained settings.

Yevgeniy Men, Jonathan Fhima, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a prevalent complication of diabetes associated with a significant risk of vision loss. Timely identification is critical to curb vision impairment. Algorithms for DR staging from digital fundus images (DFIs) have been recently proposed. However, models often fail to generalize due to distribution shifts between the source domain on which the model was trained and the target domain where it is deployed. A common and particularly challenging shift is often encountered when the source- and target-domain supports do not fully overlap. In this research, we introduce DRStageNet, a deep learning model designed to mitigate this challenge. We used seven publicly available datasets, comprising a total of 93,534 DFIs that cover a variety of patient demographics, ethnicities, geographic origins and comorbidities. We fine-tune DINOv2, a pretrained model of self-supervised vision transformer, and implement a multi-source domain fine-tuning strategy to enhance generalization performance. We benchmark and demonstrate the superiority of our method to two state-of-the-art benchmarks, including a recently published foundation model. We adapted the grad-rollout method to our regression task in order to provide high-resolution explainability heatmaps. The error analysis showed that 59\% of the main errors had incorrect reference labels. DRStageNet is accessible at URL [upon acceptance of the manuscript].

David Restrepo, Chenwei Wu, Zhengxu Tang et al.

Current ophthalmology clinical workflows are plagued by over-referrals, long waits, and complex and heterogeneous medical records. Large language models (LLMs) present a promising solution to automate various procedures such as triaging, preliminary tests like visual acuity assessment, and report summaries. However, LLMs have demonstrated significantly varied performance across different languages in natural language question-answering tasks, potentially exacerbating healthcare disparities in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). This study introduces the first multilingual ophthalmological question-answering benchmark with manually curated questions parallel across languages, allowing for direct cross-lingual comparisons. Our evaluation of 6 popular LLMs across 7 different languages reveals substantial bias across different languages, highlighting risks for clinical deployment of LLMs in LMICs. Existing debiasing methods such as Translation Chain-of-Thought or Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) by themselves fall short of closing this performance gap, often failing to improve performance across all languages and lacking specificity for the medical domain. To address this issue, We propose CLARA (Cross-Lingual Reflective Agentic system), a novel inference time de-biasing method leveraging retrieval augmented generation and self-verification. Our approach not only improves performance across all languages but also significantly reduces the multilingual bias gap, facilitating equitable LLM application across the globe.

Lasse Hyldig Hansen, Nikolaj Andersen, Jack Gallifant et al.

Background Advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) hold transformative potential in healthcare, however, recent work has raised concern about the tendency of these models to produce outputs that display racial or gender biases. Although training data is a likely source of such biases, exploration of disease and demographic associations in text data at scale has been limited. Methods We conducted a large-scale textual analysis using a dataset comprising diverse web sources, including Arxiv, Wikipedia, and Common Crawl. The study analyzed the context in which various diseases are discussed alongside markers of race and gender. Given that LLMs are pre-trained on similar datasets, this approach allowed us to examine the potential biases that LLMs may learn and internalize. We compared these findings with actual demographic disease prevalence as well as GPT-4 outputs in order to evaluate the extent of bias representation. Results Our findings indicate that demographic terms are disproportionately associated with specific disease concepts in online texts. gender terms are prominently associated with disease concepts, while racial terms are much less frequently associated. We find widespread disparities in the associations of specific racial and gender terms with the 18 diseases analyzed. Most prominently, we see an overall significant overrepresentation of Black race mentions in comparison to population proportions. Conclusions Our results highlight the need for critical examination and transparent reporting of biases in LLM pretraining datasets. Our study suggests the need to develop mitigation strategies to counteract the influence of biased training data in LLMs, particularly in sensitive domains such as healthcare.

Mingquan Lin, Gregory Holste, Song Wang et al.

The CXR-LT series is a community-driven initiative designed to enhance lung disease classification using chest X-rays (CXR). It tackles challenges in open long-tailed lung disease classification and enhances the measurability of state-of-the-art techniques. The first event, CXR-LT 2023, aimed to achieve these goals by providing high-quality benchmark CXR data for model development and conducting comprehensive evaluations to identify ongoing issues impacting lung disease classification performance. Building on the success of CXR-LT 2023, the CXR-LT 2024 expands the dataset to 377,110 chest X-rays (CXRs) and 45 disease labels, including 19 new rare disease findings. It also introduces a new focus on zero-shot learning to address limitations identified in the previous event. Specifically, CXR-LT 2024 features three tasks: (i) long-tailed classification on a large, noisy test set, (ii) long-tailed classification on a manually annotated "gold standard" subset, and (iii) zero-shot generalization to five previously unseen disease findings. This paper provides an overview of CXR-LT 2024, detailing the data curation process and consolidating state-of-the-art solutions, including the use of multimodal models for rare disease detection, advanced generative approaches to handle noisy labels, and zero-shot learning strategies for unseen diseases. Additionally, the expanded dataset enhances disease coverage to better represent real-world clinical settings, offering a valuable resource for future research. By synthesizing the insights and innovations of participating teams, we aim to advance the development of clinically realistic and generalizable diagnostic models for chest radiography.

Drago Plecko, Paul Secombe, Andrea Clarke et al.

The new era of large-scale data collection and analysis presents an opportunity for diagnosing and understanding the causes of health inequities. In this study, we describe a framework for systematically analyzing health disparities using causal inference. The framework is illustrated by investigating racial and ethnic disparities in intensive care unit (ICU) outcome between majority and minority groups in Australia (Indigenous vs. Non-Indigenous) and the United States (African-American vs. White). We demonstrate that commonly used statistical measures for quantifying inequity are insufficient, and focus on attributing the observed disparity to the causal mechanisms that generate it. We find that minority patients are younger at admission, have worse chronic health, are more likely to be admitted for urgent and non-elective reasons, and have higher illness severity. At the same time, however, we find a protective direct effect of belonging to a minority group, with minority patients showing improved survival compared to their majority counterparts, with all other variables kept equal. We demonstrate that this protective effect is related to the increased probability of being admitted to ICU, with minority patients having an increased risk of ICU admission. We also find that minority patients, while showing improved survival, are more likely to be readmitted to ICU. Thus, due to worse access to primary health care, minority patients are more likely to end up in ICU for preventable conditions, causing a reduction in the mortality rates and creating an effect that appears to be protective. Since the baseline risk of ICU admission may serve as proxy for lack of access to primary care, we developed the Indigenous Intensive Care Equity (IICE) Radar, a monitoring system for tracking the over-utilization of ICU resources by the Indigenous population of Australia across geographical areas.

Amin Adibi, Xu Cao, Zongliang Ji et al.

The fourth Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) symposium was held in person on December 15th and 16th, 2024, in the traditional, ancestral, and unceded territories of the Musqueam, Squamish, and Tsleil-Waututh Nations in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The symposium included research roundtable sessions to foster discussions between participants and senior researchers on timely and relevant topics for the ML4H community. The organization of the research roundtables at the conference involved 13 senior and 27 junior chairs across 13 tables. Each roundtable session included an invited senior chair (with substantial experience in the field), junior chairs (responsible for facilitating the discussion), and attendees from diverse backgrounds with an interest in the session's topic.

Balagopal Unnikrishnan, Ariel Guerra Adames, Amin Adibi et al. · harvard, mit

While ethical arguments for fairness in healthcare AI are well-established, the economic and strategic value of inclusive design remains underexplored. This perspective introduces the ``inclusive innovation dividend'' -- the counterintuitive principle that solutions engineered for diverse, constrained use cases generate superior economic returns in broader markets. Drawing from assistive technologies that evolved into billion-dollar mainstream industries, we demonstrate how inclusive healthcare AI development creates business value beyond compliance requirements. We identify four mechanisms through which inclusive innovation drives returns: (1) market expansion via geographic scalability and trust acceleration; (2) risk mitigation through reduced remediation costs and litigation exposure; (3) performance dividends from superior generalization and reduced technical debt, and (4) competitive advantages in talent acquisition and clinical adoption. We present the Healthcare AI Inclusive Innovation Framework (HAIIF), a practical scoring system that enables organizations to evaluate AI investments based on their potential to capture these benefits. HAIIF provides structured guidance for resource allocation, transforming fairness and inclusivity from regulatory checkboxes into sources of strategic differentiation. Our findings suggest that organizations investing incrementally in inclusive design can achieve expanded market reach and sustained competitive advantages, while those treating these considerations as overhead face compounding disadvantages as network effects and data advantages accrue to early movers.

Amirhossein Zare, Amirhessam Zare, Parmida Sadat Pezeshki et al.

Class imbalance remains a major challenge in machine learning, especially for high-dimensional biomedical data where nonlinear manifold structures dominate. Traditional oversampling methods such as SMOTE rely on local linear interpolation, often producing implausible synthetic samples. Deep generative models like Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAEs) better capture nonlinear distributions, but standard variants treat all minority samples equally, neglecting the importance of uncertain, boundary-region examples emphasized by heuristic methods like Borderline-SMOTE and ADASYN. We propose Local Entropy-Guided Oversampling with a CVAE (LEO-CVAE), a generative oversampling framework that explicitly incorporates local uncertainty into both representation learning and data generation. To quantify uncertainty, we compute Shannon entropy over the class distribution in a sample's neighborhood: high entropy indicates greater class overlap, serving as a proxy for uncertainty. LEO-CVAE leverages this signal through two mechanisms: (i) a Local Entropy-Weighted Loss (LEWL) that emphasizes robust learning in uncertain regions, and (ii) an entropy-guided sampling strategy that concentrates generation in these informative, class-overlapping areas. Applied to clinical genomics datasets (ADNI and TCGA lung cancer), LEO-CVAE consistently improves classifier performance, outperforming both traditional oversampling and generative baselines. These results highlight the value of uncertainty-aware generative oversampling for imbalanced learning in domains governed by complex nonlinear structures, such as omics data.

João Matos, Ben Van Calster, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Predictive artificial intelligence (AI) offers an opportunity to improve clinical practice and patient outcomes, but risks perpetuating biases if fairness is inadequately addressed. However, the definition of "fairness" remains unclear. We conducted a scoping review to identify and critically appraise fairness metrics for clinical predictive AI. We defined a "fairness metric" as a measure quantifying whether a model discriminates (societally) against individuals or groups defined by sensitive attributes. We searched five databases (2014-2024), screening 820 records, to include 41 studies, and extracted 62 fairness metrics. Metrics were classified by performance-dependency, model output level, and base performance metric, revealing a fragmented landscape with limited clinical validation and overreliance on threshold-dependent measures. Eighteen metrics were explicitly developed for healthcare, including only one clinical utility metric. Our findings highlight conceptual challenges in defining and quantifying fairness and identify gaps in uncertainty quantification, intersectionality, and real-world applicability. Future work should prioritise clinically meaningful metrics.

Lucas McCullum, Pelagie Ami Agassi, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Currently, a considerable research effort is devoted to comparing LLMs to a group of human experts, where the term "expert" is often ill-defined or variable, at best, in a state of constantly updating LLM releases. Without proper safeguards in place, LLMs will threaten to cause harm to the established structure of safe delivery of patient care which has been carefully developed throughout history to keep the safety of the patient at the forefront. A key driver of LLM innovation is founded on community research efforts which, if continuing to operate under "humans versus LLMs" principles, will expedite this trend. Therefore, research efforts moving forward must focus on effectively characterizing the safe use of LLMs in clinical settings that persist across the rapid development of novel LLM models. In this communication, we demonstrate that rather than comparing LLMs to humans, there is a need to develop strategies enabling efficient work of humans with LLMs in an almost symbiotic manner.

David Restrepo, Chenwei Wu, Constanza Vásquez-Venegas et al.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in healthcare has demonstrated substantial potential for enhancing clinical decision-making, administrative efficiency, and patient outcomes. However, the underrepresentation of diverse groups in the development and application of these models can perpetuate biases, leading to inequitable healthcare delivery. This paper presents a comprehensive scientometric analysis of LLM research for healthcare, including data from January 1, 2021, to July 1, 2024. By analyzing metadata from PubMed and Dimensions, including author affiliations, countries, and funding sources, we assess the diversity of contributors to LLM research. Our findings highlight significant gender and geographic disparities, with a predominance of male authors and contributions primarily from high-income countries (HICs). We introduce a novel journal diversity index based on Gini diversity to measure the inclusiveness of scientific publications. Our results underscore the necessity for greater representation in order to ensure the equitable application of LLMs in healthcare. We propose actionable strategies to enhance diversity and inclusivity in artificial intelligence research, with the ultimate goal of fostering a more inclusive and equitable future in healthcare innovation.

David Restrepo, Chenwei Wu, Sebastián Andrés Cajas et al.

Large-scale multi-modal deep learning models have revolutionized domains such as healthcare, highlighting the importance of computational power. However, in resource-constrained regions like Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), limited access to GPUs and data poses significant challenges, often leaving CPUs as the sole resource. To address this, we advocate for leveraging vector embeddings to enable flexible and efficient computational methodologies, democratizing multimodal deep learning across diverse contexts. Our paper investigates the efficiency and effectiveness of using vector embeddings from single-modal foundation models and multi-modal Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for multimodal deep learning in low-resource environments, particularly in healthcare. Additionally, we propose a simple yet effective inference-time method to enhance performance by aligning image-text embeddings. Comparing these approaches with traditional methods, we assess their impact on computational efficiency and model performance using metrics like accuracy, F1-score, inference time, training time, and memory usage across three medical modalities: BRSET (ophthalmology), HAM10000 (dermatology), and SatelliteBench (public health). Our findings show that embeddings reduce computational demands without compromising model performance. Furthermore, our alignment method improves performance in medical tasks. This research promotes sustainable AI practices by optimizing resources in constrained environments, highlighting the potential of embedding-based approaches for efficient multimodal learning. Vector embeddings democratize multimodal deep learning in LMICs, particularly in healthcare, enhancing AI adaptability in varied use cases.

Shan Chen, Jack Gallifant, Mingye Gao et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly essential in processing natural languages, yet their application is frequently compromised by biases and inaccuracies originating in their training data. In this study, we introduce Cross-Care, the first benchmark framework dedicated to assessing biases and real world knowledge in LLMs, specifically focusing on the representation of disease prevalence across diverse demographic groups. We systematically evaluate how demographic biases embedded in pre-training corpora like $ThePile$ influence the outputs of LLMs. We expose and quantify discrepancies by juxtaposing these biases against actual disease prevalences in various U.S. demographic groups. Our results highlight substantial misalignment between LLM representation of disease prevalence and real disease prevalence rates across demographic subgroups, indicating a pronounced risk of bias propagation and a lack of real-world grounding for medical applications of LLMs. Furthermore, we observe that various alignment methods minimally resolve inconsistencies in the models' representation of disease prevalence across different languages. For further exploration and analysis, we make all data and a data visualization tool available at: www.crosscare.net.

Kuan-Ting Kuo, Dana Moukheiber, Sebastian Cajas Ordonez et al.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

Ming Ying Yang, Gloria Hyunjung Kwak, Tom Pollard et al.

Social determinants of health (SDOH) -- the conditions in which people live, grow, and age -- play a crucial role in a person's health and well-being. There is a large, compelling body of evidence in population health studies showing that a wide range of SDOH is strongly correlated with health outcomes. Yet, a majority of the risk prediction models based on electronic health records (EHR) do not incorporate a comprehensive set of SDOH features as they are often noisy or simply unavailable. Our work links a publicly available EHR database, MIMIC-IV, to well-documented SDOH features. We investigate the impact of such features on common EHR prediction tasks across different patient populations. We find that community-level SDOH features do not improve model performance for a general patient population, but can improve data-limited model fairness for specific subpopulations. We also demonstrate that SDOH features are vital for conducting thorough audits of algorithmic biases beyond protective attributes. We hope the new integrated EHR-SDOH database will enable studies on the relationship between community health and individual outcomes and provide new benchmarks to study algorithmic biases beyond race, gender, and age.

Ramtin Keramati, Omer Gottesman, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Off-policy policy evaluation methods for sequential decision making can be used to help identify if a proposed decision policy is better than a current baseline policy. However, a new decision policy may be better than a baseline policy for some individuals but not others. This has motivated a push towards personalization and accurate per-state estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Given the limited data present in many important applications, individual predictions can come at a cost to accuracy and confidence in such predictions. We develop a method to balance the need for personalization with confident predictions by identifying subgroups where it is possible to confidently estimate the expected difference in a new decision policy relative to a baseline. We propose a novel loss function that accounts for uncertainty during the subgroup partitioning phase. In experiments, we show that our method can be used to form accurate predictions of HTEs where other methods struggle.

Imon Banerjee, Ananth Reddy Bhimireddy, John L. Burns et al.

Background: In medical imaging, prior studies have demonstrated disparate AI performance by race, yet there is no known correlation for race on medical imaging that would be obvious to the human expert interpreting the images. Methods: Using private and public datasets we evaluate: A) performance quantification of deep learning models to detect race from medical images, including the ability of these models to generalize to external environments and across multiple imaging modalities, B) assessment of possible confounding anatomic and phenotype population features, such as disease distribution and body habitus as predictors of race, and C) investigation into the underlying mechanism by which AI models can recognize race. Findings: Standard deep learning models can be trained to predict race from medical images with high performance across multiple imaging modalities. Our findings hold under external validation conditions, as well as when models are optimized to perform clinically motivated tasks. We demonstrate this detection is not due to trivial proxies or imaging-related surrogate covariates for race, such as underlying disease distribution. Finally, we show that performance persists over all anatomical regions and frequency spectrum of the images suggesting that mitigation efforts will be challenging and demand further study. Interpretation: We emphasize that model ability to predict self-reported race is itself not the issue of importance. However, our findings that AI can trivially predict self-reported race -- even from corrupted, cropped, and noised medical images -- in a setting where clinical experts cannot, creates an enormous risk for all model deployments in medical imaging: if an AI model secretly used its knowledge of self-reported race to misclassify all Black patients, radiologists would not be able to tell using the same data the model has access to.

Behrooz Mamandipoor, Wesley Yeung, Louis Agha-Mir-Salim et al.

Purpose. Elevations in initially obtained serum lactate levels are strong predictors of mortality in critically ill patients. Identifying patients whose serum lactate levels are more likely to increase can alert physicians to intensify care and guide them in the frequency of tending the blood test. We investigate whether machine learning models can predict subsequent serum lactate changes. Methods. We investigated serum lactate change prediction using the MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD datasets in internal as well as external validation of the eICU cohort on the MIMIC-III cohort. Three subgroups were defined based on the initial lactate levels: i) normal group (<2 mmol/L), ii) mild group (2-4 mmol/L), and iii) severe group (>4 mmol/L). Outcomes were defined based on increase or decrease of serum lactate levels between the groups. We also performed sensitivity analysis by defining the outcome as lactate change of >10% and furthermore investigated the influence of the time interval between subsequent lactate measurements on predictive performance. Results. The LSTM models were able to predict deterioration of serum lactate values of MIMIC-III patients with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.762-0.771) for the normal group, 0.77 (95% CI 0.768-0.772) for the mild group, and 0.85 (95% CI 0.840-0.851) for the severe group, with a slightly lower performance in the external validation. Conclusion. The LSTM demonstrated good discrimination of patients who had deterioration in serum lactate levels. Clinical studies are needed to evaluate whether utilization of a clinical decision support tool based on these results could positively impact decision-making and patient outcomes.

Gloria Hyunjung Kwak, Christina Chen, Lowell Ling et al.

Hyperkalemia is a potentially life-threatening condition that can lead to fatal arrhythmias. Early identification of high risk patients can inform clinical care to mitigate the risk. While hyperkalemia is often a complication of acute kidney injury (AKI), it also occurs in the absence of AKI. We developed predictive models to identify intensive care unit (ICU) patients at risk of developing hyperkalemia by using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Our methodology focused on building multiple models, optimizing for interpretability through model selection, and simulating various clinical scenarios. In order to determine if our models perform accurately on patients with and without AKI, we evaluated the following clinical cases: (i) predicting hyperkalemia after AKI within 14 days of ICU admission, (ii) predicting hyperkalemia within 14 days of ICU admission regardless of AKI status, and compared different lead times for (i) and (ii). Both clinical scenarios were modeled using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and XGBoost. Using observations from the first day in the ICU, our models were able to predict hyperkalemia with an AUC of (i) 0.79, 0.81, 0.81 and (ii) 0.81, 0.85, 0.85 for LR, RF, and XGBoost respectively. We found that 4 out of the top 5 features were consistent across the models. AKI stage was significant in the models that included all patients with or without AKI, but not in the models which only included patients with AKI. This suggests that while AKI is important for hyperkalemia, the specific stage of AKI may not be as important. Our findings require further investigation and confirmation.

Kristine Zhang, Yuanheng Wang, Jianzhun Du et al.

Many batch RL health applications first discretize time into fixed intervals. However, this discretization both loses resolution and forces a policy computation at each (potentially fine) interval. In this work, we develop a novel framework to compress continuous trajectories into a few, interpretable decision points --places where the batch data support multiple alternatives. We apply our approach to create recommendations from a cohort of hypotensive patients dataset. Our reduced state space results in faster planning and allows easy inspection by a clinical expert.

Amir Pouran Ben Veyseh, Franck Dernoncourt, Thien Huu Nguyen et al.

Acronyms are the short forms of longer phrases and they are frequently used in writing, especially scholarly writing, to save space and facilitate the communication of information. As such, every text understanding tool should be capable of recognizing acronyms in text (i.e., acronym identification) and also finding their correct meaning (i.e., acronym disambiguation). As most of the prior works on these tasks are restricted to the biomedical domain and use unsupervised methods or models trained on limited datasets, they fail to perform well for scientific document understanding. To push forward research in this direction, we have organized two shared task for acronym identification and acronym disambiguation in scientific documents, named AI@SDU and AD@SDU, respectively. The two shared tasks have attracted 52 and 43 participants, respectively. While the submitted systems make substantial improvements compared to the existing baselines, there are still far from the human-level performance. This paper reviews the two shared tasks and the prominent participating systems for each of them.

Patrick Schwab, Arash Mehrjou, Sonali Parbhoo et al.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with rapid human-to-human transmission and a high case fatality rate particularly in older patients. Due to the exponential growth of infections, many healthcare systems across the world are under pressure to care for increasing amounts of at-risk patients. Given the high number of infected patients, identifying patients with the highest mortality risk early is critical to enable effective intervention and optimal prioritisation of care. Here, we present the COVID-19 Early Warning System (CovEWS), a clinical risk scoring system for assessing COVID-19 related mortality risk. CovEWS provides continuous real-time risk scores for individual patients with clinically meaningful predictive performance up to 192 hours (8 days) in advance, and is automatically derived from patients' electronic health records (EHRs) using machine learning. We trained and evaluated CovEWS using de-identified data from a cohort of 66430 COVID-19 positive patients seen at over 69 healthcare institutions in the United States (US), Australia, Malaysia and India amounting to an aggregated total of over 2863 years of patient observation time. On an external test cohort of 5005 patients, CovEWS predicts COVID-19 related mortality from $78.8\%$ ($95\%$ confidence interval [CI]: $76.0$, $84.7\%$) to $69.4\%$ ($95\%$ CI: $57.6, 75.2\%$) specificity at a sensitivity greater than $95\%$ between respectively 1 and 192 hours prior to observed mortality events - significantly outperforming existing generic and COVID-19 specific clinical risk scores. CovEWS could enable clinicians to intervene at an earlier stage, and may therefore help in preventing or mitigating COVID-19 related mortality.

Edward T. Moseley, Joy T. Wu, Jonathan Welt et al.

A crucial step within secondary analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is to identify the patient cohort under investigation. While EHRs contain medical billing codes that aim to represent the conditions and treatments patients may have, much of the information is only present in the patient notes. Therefore, it is critical to develop robust algorithms to infer patients' conditions and treatments from their written notes. In this paper, we introduce a dataset for patient phenotyping, a task that is defined as the identification of whether a patient has a given medical condition (also referred to as clinical indication or phenotype) based on their patient note. Nursing Progress Notes and Discharge Summaries from the Intensive Care Unit of a large tertiary care hospital were manually annotated for the presence of several high-context phenotypes relevant to treatment and risk of re-hospitalization. This dataset contains 1102 Discharge Summaries and 1000 Nursing Progress Notes. Each Discharge Summary and Progress Note has been annotated by at least two expert human annotators (one clinical researcher and one resident physician). Annotated phenotypes include treatment non-adherence, chronic pain, advanced/metastatic cancer, as well as 10 other phenotypes. This dataset can be utilized for academic and industrial research in medicine and computer science, particularly within the field of medical natural language processing.

Omer Gottesman, Joseph Futoma, Yao Liu et al.

Off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning offers the chance of using observational data to improve future outcomes in domains such as healthcare and education, but safe deployment in high stakes settings requires ways of assessing its validity. Traditional measures such as confidence intervals may be insufficient due to noise, limited data and confounding. In this paper we develop a method that could serve as a hybrid human-AI system, to enable human experts to analyze the validity of policy evaluation estimates. This is accomplished by highlighting observations in the data whose removal will have a large effect on the OPE estimate, and formulating a set of rules for choosing which ones to present to domain experts for validation. We develop methods to compute exactly the influence functions for fitted Q-evaluation with two different function classes: kernel-based and linear least squares, as well as importance sampling methods. Experiments on medical simulations and real-world intensive care unit data demonstrate that our method can be used to identify limitations in the evaluation process and make evaluation more robust.

Xiaoli Liu, Pan Hu, Zhi Mao et al.

Background: Elderly patients with MODS have high risk of death and poor prognosis. The performance of current scoring systems assessing the severity of MODS and its mortality remains unsatisfactory. This study aims to develop an interpretable and generalizable model for early mortality prediction in elderly patients with MODS. Methods: The MIMIC-III, eICU-CRD and PLAGH-S databases were employed for model generation and evaluation. We used the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model with the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to conduct early and interpretable predictions of patients' hospital outcome. Three types of data source combinations and five typical evaluation indexes were adopted to develop a generalizable model. Findings: The interpretable model, with optimal performance developed by using MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD datasets, was separately validated in MIMIC-III, eICU-CRD and PLAGH-S datasets (no overlapping with training set). The performances of the model in predicting hospital mortality as validated by the three datasets were: AUC of 0.858, sensitivity of 0.834 and specificity of 0.705; AUC of 0.849, sensitivity of 0.763 and specificity of 0.784; and AUC of 0.838, sensitivity of 0.882 and specificity of 0.691, respectively. Comparisons of AUC between this model and baseline models with MIMIC-III dataset validation showed superior performances of this model; In addition, comparisons in AUC between this model and commonly used clinical scores showed significantly better performance of this model. Interpretation: The interpretable machine learning model developed in this study using fused datasets with large sample sizes was robust and generalizable. This model outperformed the baseline models and several clinical scores for early prediction of mortality in elderly ICU patients. The interpretative nature of this model provided clinicians with the ranking of mortality risk features.

Andrew Slavin Ross, Weiwei Pan, Leo Anthony Celi et al.

Ensembles depend on diversity for improved performance. Many ensemble training methods, therefore, attempt to optimize for diversity, which they almost always define in terms of differences in training set predictions. In this paper, however, we demonstrate the diversity of predictions on the training set does not necessarily imply diversity under mild covariate shift, which can harm generalization in practical settings. To address this issue, we introduce a new diversity metric and associated method of training ensembles of models that extrapolate differently on local patches of the data manifold. Across a variety of synthetic and real-world tasks, we find that our method improves generalization and diversity in qualitatively novel ways, especially under data limits and covariate shift.