Madhav Marathe

Swapna Thorve, Young Yun Baek, Samarth Swarup et al.

Efficient energy consumption is crucial for achieving sustainable energy goals in the era of climate change and grid modernization. Thus, it is vital to understand how energy is consumed at finer resolutions such as household in order to plan demand-response events or analyze the impacts of weather, electricity prices, electric vehicles, solar, and occupancy schedules on energy consumption. However, availability and access to detailed energy-use data, which would enable detailed studies, has been rare. In this paper, we release a unique, large-scale, synthetic, residential energy-use dataset for the residential sector across the contiguous United States covering millions of households. The data comprise of hourly energy use profiles for synthetic households, disaggregated into Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL) and appliance use. The underlying framework is constructed using a bottom-up approach. Diverse open-source surveys and first principles models are used for end-use modeling. Extensive validation of the synthetic dataset has been conducted through comparisons with reported energy-use data. We present a detailed, open, high-resolution, residential energy-use dataset for the United States.

Kazi Ashik Islam, Da Qi Chen, Madhav Marathe et al.

Evacuation planning is a crucial part of disaster management. However, joint optimization of its two essential components, routing and scheduling, with objectives such as minimizing average evacuation time or evacuation completion time, is a computationally hard problem. To approach it, we present MIP-LNS, a scalable optimization method that utilizes heuristic search with mathematical optimization and can optimize a variety of objective functions. We also present the method MIP-LNS-SIM, where we combine agent-based simulation with MIP-LNS to estimate delays due to congestion, as well as, find optimized plans considering such delays. We use Harris County in Houston, Texas, as our study area. We show that, within a given time limit, MIP-LNS finds better solutions than existing methods in terms of three different metrics. However, when congestion dependent delay is considered, MIP-LNS-SIM outperforms MIP-LNS in multiple performance metrics. In addition, MIP-LNS-SIM has a significantly lower percent error in estimated evacuation completion time compared to MIP-LNS.

Zirou Qiu, Chen Chen, Madhav V. Marathe et al.

Networked discrete dynamical systems are often used to model the spread of contagions and decision-making by agents in coordination games. Fixed points of such dynamical systems represent configurations to which the system converges. In the dissemination of undesirable contagions (such as rumors and misinformation), convergence to fixed points with a small number of affected nodes is a desirable goal. Motivated by such considerations, we formulate a novel optimization problem of finding a nontrivial fixed point of the system with the minimum number of affected nodes. We establish that, unless P = NP, there is no polynomial time algorithm for approximating a solution to this problem to within the factor n^1-εfor any constant epsilon > 0. To cope with this computational intractability, we identify several special cases for which the problem can be solved efficiently. Further, we introduce an integer linear program to address the problem for networks of reasonable sizes. For solving the problem on larger networks, we propose a general heuristic framework along with greedy selection methods. Extensive experimental results on real-world networks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed heuristics.

Saurav Ghosh, Prithwish Chakraborty, Bryan L. Lewis et al.

Real-time monitoring and responses to emerging public health threats rely on the availability of timely surveillance data. During the early stages of an epidemic, the ready availability of line lists with detailed tabular information about laboratory-confirmed cases can assist epidemiologists in making reliable inferences and forecasts. Such inferences are crucial to understand the epidemiology of a specific disease early enough to stop or control the outbreak. However, construction of such line lists requires considerable human supervision and therefore, difficult to generate in real-time. In this paper, we motivate Guided Deep List, the first tool for building automated line lists (in near real-time) from open source reports of emerging disease outbreaks. Specifically, we focus on deriving epidemiological characteristics of an emerging disease and the affected population from reports of illness. Guided Deep List uses distributed vector representations (ala word2vec) to discover a set of indicators for each line list feature. This discovery of indicators is followed by the use of dependency parsing based techniques for final extraction in tabular form. We evaluate the performance of Guided Deep List against a human annotated line list provided by HealthMap corresponding to MERS outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. We demonstrate that Guided Deep List extracts line list features with increased accuracy compared to a baseline method. We further show how these automatically extracted line list features can be used for making epidemiological inferences, such as inferring demographics and symptoms-to-hospitalization period of affected individuals.

Zirou Qiu, Abhijin Adiga, Madhav V. Marathe et al.

Networked dynamical systems are widely used as formal models of real-world cascading phenomena, such as the spread of diseases and information. Prior research has addressed the problem of learning the behavior of an unknown dynamical system when the underlying network has a single layer. In this work, we study the learnability of dynamical systems over multilayer networks, which are more realistic and challenging. First, we present an efficient PAC learning algorithm with provable guarantees to show that the learner only requires a small number of training examples to infer an unknown system. We further provide a tight analysis of the Natarajan dimension which measures the model complexity. Asymptotically, our bound on the Nararajan dimension is tight for almost all multilayer graphs. The techniques and insights from our work provide the theoretical foundations for future investigations of learning problems for multilayer dynamical systems.

Oishee Bintey Hoque, Samarth Swarup, Abhijin Adiga et al.

Irrigation mapping plays a crucial role in effective water management, essential for preserving both water quality and quantity, and is key to mitigating the global issue of water scarcity. The complexity of agricultural fields, adorned with diverse irrigation practices, especially when multiple systems coexist in close quarters, poses a unique challenge. This complexity is further compounded by the nature of Landsat's remote sensing data, where each pixel is rich with densely packed information, complicating the task of accurate irrigation mapping. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach that employs a progressive training method, which strategically increases patch sizes throughout the training process, utilizing datasets from Landsat 5 and 7, labeled with the WRLU dataset for precise labeling. This initial focus allows the model to capture detailed features, progressively shifting to broader, more general features as the patch size enlarges. Remarkably, our method enhances the performance of existing state-of-the-art models by approximately 20%. Furthermore, our analysis delves into the significance of incorporating various spectral bands into the model, assessing their impact on performance. The findings reveal that additional bands are instrumental in enabling the model to discern finer details more effectively. This work sets a new standard for leveraging remote sensing imagery in irrigation mapping.

Zirou Qiu, Abhijin Adiga, Madhav V. Marathe et al.

Discrete dynamical systems are commonly used to model the spread of contagions on real-world networks. Under the PAC framework, existing research has studied the problem of learning the behavior of a system, assuming that the underlying network is known. In this work, we focus on a more challenging setting: to learn both the behavior and the underlying topology of a black-box system. We show that, in general, this learning problem is computationally intractable. On the positive side, we present efficient learning methods under the PAC model when the underlying graph of the dynamical system belongs to some classes. Further, we examine a relaxed setting where the topology of an unknown system is partially observed. For this case, we develop an efficient PAC learner to infer the system and establish the sample complexity. Lastly, we present a formal analysis of the expressive power of the hypothesis class of dynamical systems where both the topology and behavior are unknown, using the well-known formalism of the Natarajan dimension. Our results provide a theoretical foundation for learning both the behavior and topology of discrete dynamical systems.

Oishee Bintey Hoque, Abhijin Adiga, Aniruddha Adiga et al.

Accurate canal network mapping is essential for water management, including irrigation planning and infrastructure maintenance. State-of-the-art semantic segmentation models for infrastructure mapping, such as roads, rely on large, well-annotated remote sensing datasets. However, incomplete or inadequate ground truth can hinder these learning approaches. Many infrastructure networks have graph-level properties such as reachability to a source (like canals) or connectivity (roads) that can be leveraged to improve these existing ground truth. This paper develops a novel iterative framework IGraSS, combining a semantic segmentation module-incorporating RGB and additional modalities (NDWI, DEM)-with a graph-based ground-truth refinement module. The segmentation module processes satellite imagery patches, while the refinement module operates on the entire data viewing the infrastructure network as a graph. Experiments show that IGraSS reduces unreachable canal segments from around 18% to 3%, and training with refined ground truth significantly improves canal identification. IGraSS serves as a robust framework for both refining noisy ground truth and mapping canal networks from remote sensing imagery. We also demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of IGraSS using road networks as an example, applying a different graph-theoretic constraint to complete road networks.

Kazi Ashik Islam, Zakaria Mehrab, Mahantesh Halappanavar et al.

Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained by sparse sensor networks, where only a limited subset of locations may have sensors due to budget constraints. To approach this challenge, we present DIFF -SPARSE, a masked conditional diffusion model designed for probabilistic coastal inundation forecasting from sparse sensor observations. DIFF -SPARSE primarily utilizes the inundation history of a location and its neighboring locations from a context time window as spatiotemporal context. The fundamental challenge of spatiotemporal prediction based on sparse observations in the context window is addressed by introducing a novel masking strategy during training. Digital elevation data and temporal co-variates are utilized as additional spatial and temporal contexts, respectively. A convolutional neural network and a conditional UNet architecture with cross-attention mechanism are employed to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics in the data. We trained and tested DIFF -SPARSE on coastal inundation data from the Eastern Shore of Virginia and systematically assessed the performance of DIFF -SPARSE across different sparsity levels 0%, 50%, 95% missing observations. Our experiment results show that DIFF -SPARSE achieves upto 62% improvement in terms of two forecasting performance metrics compared to existing methods, at 95% sparsity level. Moreover, our ablation studies reveal that digital elevation data becomes more useful at high sparsity levels compared to temporal co-variates.

George Li, Ann Li, Madhav Marathe et al.

In response to COVID-19, many countries have mandated social distancing and banned large group gatherings in order to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These social interventions along with vaccines remain the best way forward to reduce the spread of SARS CoV-2. In order to increase vaccine accessibility, states such as Virginia have deployed mobile vaccination centers to distribute vaccines across the state. When choosing where to place these sites, there are two important factors to take into account: accessibility and equity. We formulate a combinatorial problem that captures these factors and then develop efficient algorithms with theoretical guarantees on both of these aspects. Furthermore, we study the inherent hardness of the problem, and demonstrate strong impossibility results. Finally, we run computational experiments on real-world data to show the efficacy of our methods.

Lijing Wang, Dipanjan Ghosh, Maria Teresa Gonzalez Diaz et al.

Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same input the user would expect the same output, especially for correct outputs, or in other words consistently correct outputs. This paper studies a model behavior in the context of periodic retraining of deployed models where the outputs from successive generations of the models might not agree on the correct labels assigned to the same input. We formally define consistency and correct-consistency of a learning model. We prove that consistency and correct-consistency of an ensemble learner is not less than the average consistency and correct-consistency of individual learners and correct-consistency can be improved with a probability by combining learners with accuracy not less than the average accuracy of ensemble component learners. To validate the theory using three datasets and two state-of-the-art deep learning classifiers we also propose an efficient dynamic snapshot ensemble method and demonstrate its value.

Lijing Wang, Aniruddha Adiga, Srinivasan Venkatramanan et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep learning-based time series models for forecasting have recently gained popularity and have been successfully used for epidemic forecasting. Here we focus on the design and analysis of deep learning-based models for COVID-19 forecasting. We implement multiple recurrent neural network-based deep learning models and combine them using the stacking ensemble technique. In order to incorporate the effects of multiple factors in COVID-19 spread, we consider multiple sources such as COVID-19 confirmed and death case count data and testing data for better predictions. To overcome the sparsity of training data and to address the dynamic correlation of the disease, we propose clustering-based training for high-resolution forecasting. The methods help us to identify the similar trends of certain groups of regions due to various spatio-temporal effects. We examine the proposed method for forecasting weekly COVID-19 new confirmed cases at county-, state-, and country-level. A comprehensive comparison between different time series models in COVID-19 context is conducted and analyzed. The results show that simple deep learning models can achieve comparable or better performance when compared with more complicated models. We are currently integrating our methods as a part of our weekly forecasts that we provide state and federal authorities.

Aniruddha Adiga, Devdatt Dubhashi, Bryan Lewis et al.

COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis in the last 100 years. Its economic, social and health impact continues to grow and is likely to end up as one of the worst global disasters since the 1918 pandemic and the World Wars. Mathematical models have played an important role in the ongoing crisis; they have been used to inform public policies and have been instrumental in many of the social distancing measures that were instituted worldwide. In this article we review some of the important mathematical models used to support the ongoing planning and response efforts. These models differ in their use, their mathematical form and their scope.

Lijing Wang, Jiangzhuo Chen, Madhav Marathe

Influenza-like illness (ILI) places a heavy social and economic burden on our society. Traditionally, ILI surveillance data is updated weekly and provided at a spatially coarse resolution. Producing timely and reliable high-resolution spatiotemporal forecasts for ILI is crucial for local preparedness and optimal interventions. We present TDEFSI (Theory Guided Deep Learning Based Epidemic Forecasting with Synthetic Information), an epidemic forecasting framework that integrates the strengths of deep neural networks and high-resolution simulations of epidemic processes over networks. TDEFSI yields accurate high-resolution spatiotemporal forecasts using low-resolution time series data. During the training phase, TDEFSI uses high-resolution simulations of epidemics that explicitly model spatial and social heterogeneity inherent in urban regions as one component of training data. We train a two-branch recurrent neural network model to take both within-season and between-season low-resolution observations as features, and output high-resolution detailed forecasts. The resulting forecasts are not just driven by observed data but also capture the intricate social, demographic and geographic attributes of specific urban regions and mathematical theories of disease propagation over networks. We focus on forecasting the incidence of ILI and evaluate TDEFSI's performance using synthetic and real-world testing datasets at the state and county levels in the USA. The results show that, at the state level, our method achieves comparable/better performance than several state-of-the-art methods. At the county level, TDEFSI outperforms the other methods. The proposed method can be applied to other infectious diseases as well.