Mohammad Hossein Samaei

Mousa Alizadeh, Mohammad Hossein Samaei, Azam Seilsepour et al.

Effective epidemic modeling is essential for managing public health crises, requiring robust methods to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces a novel deep learning framework that advances time series forecasting for infectious diseases, with its application to COVID 19 data as a critical case study. Our hybrid approach integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to capture spatial and temporal dynamics of disease transmission across diverse regions. The CNN extracts spatial features from raw epidemiological data, while the LSTM models temporal patterns, yielding precise and adaptable predictions. To maximize performance, we employ a hybrid optimization strategy combining the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) to fine tune hyperparameters, such as learning rates, batch sizes, and training epochs enhancing model efficiency and accuracy. Applied to COVID 19 case data from 24 countries across six continents, our method outperforms established benchmarks, including ARIMA and standalone LSTM models, with statistically significant gains in predictive accuracy (e.g., reduced RMSE). This framework demonstrates its potential as a versatile method for forecasting epidemic trends, offering insights for resource planning and decision making in both historical contexts, like the COVID 19 pandemic, and future outbreaks.

Mohammad Hossein Samaei, Faryad Darabi Sahneh, Lee W. Cohnstaedt et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to automate complex interdisciplinary research domains. Epidemic modeling, characterized by its complexity and reliance on network science, dynamical systems, epidemiology, and stochastic simulations, represents a prime candidate for leveraging LLM-driven automation. We introduce \textbf{EpidemIQs}, a novel multi-agent LLM framework that integrates user inputs and autonomously conducts literature review, analytical derivation, network modeling, mechanistic modeling, stochastic simulations, data visualization and analysis, and finally documentation of findings in a structured manuscript. We introduced two types of agents: a scientist agent for planning, coordination, reflection, and generation of final results, and a task-expert agent to focus exclusively on one specific duty serving as a tool to the scientist agent. The framework consistently generated complete reports in scientific article format. Specifically, using GPT 4.1 and GPT 4.1 mini as backbone LLMs for scientist and task-expert agents, respectively, the autonomous process completed with average total token usage 870K at a cost of about \$1.57 per study, achieving a 100\% completion success rate through our experiments. We evaluate EpidemIQs across different epidemic scenarios, measuring computational cost, completion success rate, and AI and human expert reviews of generated reports. We compare EpidemIQs to the single-agent LLM, which has the same system prompts and tools, iteratively planning, invoking tools, and revising outputs until task completion. The comparison shows consistently higher performance of the proposed framework across five different scenarios. EpidemIQs represents a step forward in accelerating scientific research by significantly reducing costs and turnaround time of discovery processes, and enhancing accessibility to advanced modeling tools.