Jerome H. Friedman

Jerome H. Friedman

The output of a machine learning algorithm can usually be represented by one or more multivariate functions of its input variables. Knowing the global properties of such functions can help in understanding the system that produced the data as well as interpreting and explaining corresponding model predictions. A method is presented for representing a general multivariate function as a tree of simpler functions. This tree exposes the global internal structure of the function by uncovering and describing the combined joint influences of subsets of its input variables. Given the inputs and corresponding function values, a function tree is constructed that can be used to rapidly identify and compute all of the function's main and interaction effects up to high order. Interaction effects involving up to four variables are graphically visualized.

Gilmer Valdes, Wilmer Arbelo, Yannet Interian et al.

Many regression and classification procedures fit a parameterized function $f(x;w)$ of predictor variables $x$ to data $\{x_{i},y_{i}\}_1^N$ based on some loss criterion $L(y,f)$. Often, regularization is applied to improve accuracy by placing a constraint $P(w)\leq t$ on the values of the parameters $w$. Although efficient methods exist for finding solutions to these constrained optimization problems for all values of $t\geq0$ in the special case when $f$ is a linear function, none are available when $f$ is non-linear (e.g. Neural Networks). Here we present a fast algorithm that provides all such solutions for any differentiable function $f$ and loss $L$, and any constraint $P$ that is an increasing monotone function of the absolute value of each parameter. Applications involving sparsity inducing regularization of arbitrary Neural Networks are discussed. Empirical results indicate that these sparse solutions are usually superior to their dense counterparts in both accuracy and interpretability. This improvement in accuracy can often make Neural Networks competitive with, and sometimes superior to, state-of-the-art methods in the analysis of tabular data.

Jerome H. Friedman

The goal of regression analysis is to predict the value of a numeric outcome variable y given a vector of joint values of other (predictor) variables x. Usually a particular x-vector does not specify a repeatable value for y, but rather a probability distribution of possible y--values, p(y|x). This distribution has a location, scale and shape, all of which can depend on x, and are needed to infer likely values for y given x. Regression methods usually assume that training data y-values are perfect numeric realizations from some well behaived p(y|x). Often actual training data y-values are discrete, truncated and/or arbitrary censored. Regression procedures based on an optimal transformation strategy are presented for estimating location, scale and shape of p(y|x) as general functions of x, in the possible presence of such imperfect training data. In addition, validation diagnostics are presented to ascertain the quality of the solutions.

Jerome H. Friedman

Often machine learning methods are applied and results reported in cases where there is little to no information concerning accuracy of the output. Simply because a computer program returns a result does not insure its validity. If decisions are to be made based on such results it is important to have some notion of their veracity. Contrast trees represent a new approach for assessing the accuracy of many types of machine learning estimates that are not amenable to standard (cross) validation methods. In situations where inaccuracies are detected boosted contrast trees can often improve performance. A special case, distribution boosting, provides an assumption free method for estimating the full probability distribution of an outcome variable given any set of joint input predictor variable values.

E. D. Gennatas, J. H. Friedman, L. H. Ungar et al.

Machine Learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption by the level of trust that models afford users. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of man and machine. Here we present Expert-Augmented Machine Learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We use a large dataset of intensive care patient data to predict mortality and show that we can extract expert knowledge using an online platform, help reveal hidden confounders, improve generalizability on a different population and learn using less data. EAML presents a novel framework for high performance and dependable machine learning in critical applications.

J. Kenneth Tay, Jerome Friedman, Robert Tibshirani

We propose a new method for supervised learning, especially suited to wide data where the number of features is much greater than the number of observations. The method combines the lasso ($\ell_1$) sparsity penalty with a quadratic penalty that shrinks the coefficient vector toward the leading principal components of the feature matrix. We call the proposed method the "principal components lasso" ("pcLasso"). The method can be especially powerful if the features are pre-assigned to groups (such as cell-pathways, assays or protein interaction networks). In that case, pcLasso shrinks each group-wise component of the solution toward the leading principal components of that group. In the process, it also carries out selection of the feature groups. We provide some theory for this method and illustrate it on a number of simulated and real data examples.

Noah Simon, Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie

In this paper we purpose a blockwise descent algorithm for group-penalized multiresponse regression. Using a quasi-newton framework we extend this to group-penalized multinomial regression. We give a publicly available implementation for these in R, and compare the speed of this algorithm to a competing algorithm --- we show that our implementation is an order of magnitude faster than its competitor, and can solve gene-expression-sized problems in real time.