Semon Rezchikov

Muthu Chidambaram, Holden Lee, Colin McSwiggen et al.

Informally, a model is calibrated if its predictions are correct with a probability that matches the confidence of the prediction. By far the most common method in the literature for measuring calibration is the expected calibration error (ECE). Recent work, however, has pointed out drawbacks of ECE, such as the fact that it is discontinuous in the space of predictors. In this work, we ask: how fundamental are these issues, and what are their impacts on existing results? Towards this end, we completely characterize the discontinuities of ECE with respect to general probability measures on Polish spaces. We then use the nature of these discontinuities to motivate a novel continuous, easily estimated miscalibration metric, which we term Logit-Smoothed ECE (LS-ECE). By comparing the ECE and LS-ECE of pre-trained image classification models, we show in initial experiments that binned ECE closely tracks LS-ECE, indicating that the theoretical pathologies of ECE may be avoidable in practice.

Samuel L. Smith, Daniel Duckworth, Semon Rezchikov et al.

Recent work has argued that stochastic gradient descent can approximate the Bayesian uncertainty in model parameters near local minima. In this work we develop a similar correspondence for minibatch natural gradient descent (NGD). We prove that for sufficiently small learning rates, if the model predictions on the training set approach the true conditional distribution of labels given inputs, the stationary distribution of minibatch NGD approaches a Bayesian posterior near local minima. The temperature $T = εN / (2B)$ is controlled by the learning rate $ε$, training set size $N$ and batch size $B$. However minibatch NGD is not parameterisation invariant and it does not sample a valid posterior away from local minima. We therefore propose a novel optimiser, "stochastic NGD", which introduces the additional correction terms required to preserve both properties.