Bruce Kogut

Kriste Krstovski, Angela Soomin Ryu, Bruce Kogut

We present a novel collection of news articles originating from fake and real news media sources for the analysis and prediction of news virality. Unlike existing fake news datasets which either contain claims or news article headline and body, in this collection each article is supported with a Facebook engagement count which we consider as an indicator of the article virality. In addition we also provide the article description and thumbnail image with which the article was shared on Facebook. These images were automatically annotated with object tags and color attributes. Using cloud based vision analysis tools, thumbnail images were also analyzed for faces and detected faces were annotated with facial attributes. We empirically investigate the use of this collection on an example task of article virality prediction.

Tianyi Peng, George Gui, Daniel J. Merlau et al.

Digital representations of individuals ("digital twins") promise to transform social science and decision-making. Yet it remains unclear whether such twins truly mirror the people they emulate. We conducted 19 preregistered studies with a representative U.S. panel and their digital twins, each constructed from rich individual-level data, enabling direct comparisons between human and twin behavior across a wide range of domains and stimuli (including never-seen-before ones). Twins reproduced individual responses with 75% accuracy and seemingly low correlation with human answers (approximately 0.2). However, this apparently high accuracy was no higher than that achieved by generic personas based on demographics only. In contrast, correlation improved when twins incorporated detailed personal information, even outperforming traditional machine learning benchmarks that require additional data. Twins exhibited systematic strengths and weaknesses - performing better in social and personality domains, but worse in political ones - and were more accurate for participants with higher education, higher income, and moderate political views and religious attendance. Together, these findings delineate both the promise and the current limits of digital twins: they capture some relative differences among individuals but not yet the unique judgments of specific people. All data and code are publicly available to support the further development and evaluation of digital twin pipelines.