Uncertainty Quantification via Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Model for Zero-inflated and Long-tail Travel Demand PredictionXinke Jiang, Dingyi Zhuang, Xianghui Zhang et al.
Understanding Origin-Destination (O-D) travel demand is crucial for transportation management. However, traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models grapple with addressing the sparse and long-tail characteristics in high-resolution O-D matrices and quantifying prediction uncertainty. This dilemma arises from the numerous zeros and over-dispersed demand patterns within these matrices, which challenge the Gaussian assumption inherent to deterministic deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach: the Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD). The STTD introduces the Tweedie distribution as a compelling alternative to the traditional 'zero-inflated' model and leverages spatial and temporal embeddings to parameterize travel demand distributions. Our evaluations using real-world datasets highlight STTD's superiority in providing accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals, particularly in high-resolution scenarios.
Infinite-Horizon Graph Filters: Leveraging Power Series to Enhance Sparse Information AggregationRuizhe Zhang, Xinke Jiang, Yuchen Fang et al.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown considerable effectiveness in a variety of graph learning tasks, particularly those based on the message-passing approach in recent years. However, their performance is often constrained by a limited receptive field, a challenge that becomes more acute in the presence of sparse graphs. In light of the power series, which possesses infinite expansion capabilities, we propose a novel Graph Power Filter Neural Network (GPFN) that enhances node classification by employing a power series graph filter to augment the receptive field. Concretely, our GPFN designs a new way to build a graph filter with an infinite receptive field based on the convergence power series, which can be analyzed in the spectral and spatial domains. Besides, we theoretically prove that our GPFN is a general framework that can integrate any power series and capture long-range dependencies. Finally, experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the superiority of our GPFN over state-of-the-art baselines.