Ross D. King

Hector Zenil, Jesper Tegnér, Felipe S. Abrahão et al. · cambridge

Recent advances in machine learning and AI, including Generative AI and LLMs, are disrupting technological innovation, product development, and society as a whole. AI's contribution to technology can come from multiple approaches that require access to large training data sets and clear performance evaluation criteria, ranging from pattern recognition and classification to generative models. Yet, AI has contributed less to fundamental science in part because large data sets of high-quality data for scientific practice and model discovery are more difficult to access. Generative AI, in general, and Large Language Models in particular, may represent an opportunity to augment and accelerate the scientific discovery of fundamental deep science with quantitative models. Here we explore and investigate aspects of an AI-driven, automated, closed-loop approach to scientific discovery, including self-driven hypothesis generation and open-ended autonomous exploration of the hypothesis space. Integrating AI-driven automation into the practice of science would mitigate current problems, including the replication of findings, systematic production of data, and ultimately democratisation of the scientific process. Realising these possibilities requires a vision for augmented AI coupled with a diversity of AI approaches able to deal with fundamental aspects of causality analysis and model discovery while enabling unbiased search across the space of putative explanations. These advances hold the promise to unleash AI's potential for searching and discovering the fundamental structure of our world beyond what human scientists have been able to achieve. Such a vision would push the boundaries of new fundamental science rather than automatize current workflows and instead open doors for technological innovation to tackle some of the greatest challenges facing humanity today.

Abbi Abdel-Rehim, Oghenejokpeme Orhobor, Hang Lou et al.

The goal of Protein Structure Prediction (PSP) problem is to predict a protein's 3D structure (confirmation) from its amino acid sequence. The problem has been a 'holy grail' of science since the Noble prize-winning work of Anfinsen demonstrated that protein conformation was determined by sequence. A recent and important step towards this goal was the development of AlphaFold2, currently the best PSP method. AlphaFold2 is probably the highest profile application of AI to science. Both AlphaFold2 and RoseTTAFold (another impressive PSP method) have been published and placed in the public domain (code & models). Stacking is a form of ensemble machine learning ML in which multiple baseline models are first learnt, then a meta-model is learnt using the outputs of the baseline level model to form a model that outperforms the base models. Stacking has been successful in many applications. We developed the ARStack PSP method by stacking AlphaFold2 and RoseTTAFold. ARStack significantly outperforms AlphaFold2. We rigorously demonstrate this using two sets of non-homologous proteins, and a test set of protein structures published after that of AlphaFold2 and RoseTTAFold. As more high quality prediction methods are published it is likely that ensemble methods will increasingly outperform any single method.

Ievgeniia A. Tiukova, Daniel Brunnsåker, Erik Y. Bjurström et al.

The cutting edge of applying AI to science is the closed-loop automation of scientific research: robot scientists. We have previously developed two robot scientists: `Adam' (for yeast functional biology), and `Eve' (for early-stage drug design)). We are now developing a next generation robot scientist Genesis. With Genesis we aim to demonstrate that an area of science can be investigated using robot scientists unambiguously faster, and at lower cost, than with human scientists. Here we report progress on the Genesis project. Genesis is designed to automatically improve system biology models with thousands of interacting causal components. When complete Genesis will be able to initiate and execute in parallel one thousand hypothesis-led closed-loop cycles of experiment per-day. Here we describe the core Genesis hardware: the one thousand computer-controlled $μ$-bioreactors. For the integrated Mass Spectrometry platform we have developed AutonoMS, a system to automatically run, process, and analyse high-throughput experiments. We have also developed Genesis-DB, a database system designed to enable software agents access to large quantities of structured domain information. We have developed RIMBO (Revisions for Improvements of Models in Biology Ontology) to describe the planned hundreds of thousands of changes to the models. We have demonstrated the utility of this infrastructure by developed two relational learning bioinformatic projects. Finally, we describe LGEM+ a relational learning system for the automated abductive improvement of genome-scale metabolic models.

Abbi Abdel-Rehim, Oghenejokpeme Orhobor, Gareth Griffiths et al.

The concept of personalised medicine in cancer therapy is becoming increasingly important. There already exist drugs administered specifically for patients with tumours presenting well-defined mutations. However, the field is still in its infancy, and personalised treatments are far from being standard of care. Personalised medicine is often associated with the utilisation of omics data. Yet, implementation of multi-omics data has proven difficult, due to the variety and scale of the information within the data, as well as the complexity behind the myriad of interactions taking place within the cell. An alternative approach to precision medicine is to employ a function-based profile of the cell. This involves screening a range of drugs against patient derived cells. Here we demonstrate a proof-of-concept, where a collection of drug screens against a highly diverse set of patient-derived cell lines, are leveraged to identify putative treatment options for a 'new patient'. We show that this methodology is highly efficient in ranking the drugs according to their activity towards the target cells. We argue that this approach offers great potential, as activities can be efficiently imputed from various subsets of the drug treated cell lines that do not necessarily originate from the same tissue type.

Adnan Mahmud, Oghenejokpeme Orhobor, Ross D. King

This study explores the application and performance of Transformational Machine Learning (TML) in drug discovery. TML, a meta learning algorithm, excels in exploiting common attributes across various domains, thus developing composite models that outperform conventional models. The drug discovery process, which is complex and time-consuming, can benefit greatly from the enhanced prediction accuracy, improved interpretability and greater generalizability provided by TML. We explore the efficacy of different machine learning classifiers, where no individual classifier exhibits distinct superiority, leading to the consideration of ensemble classifiers such as the Random Forest. Our findings show that TML outperforms base Machine Learning (ML) as the number of training datasets increases, due to its capacity to better approximate the correct hypothesis, overcome local optima, and expand the space of representable functions by combining separate classifiers capabilities. However, this superiority is relative to the resampling methods applied, with Near Miss demonstrating poorer performance due to noisy data, overlapping classes, and nonlinear class boundaries. Conversely, Random Over Sampling (ROS) provides a more robust performance given its resistance to noise and outliers, improved class overlap management, and suitability for nonlinear class boundaries.

Abbi Abdel-Rehim, Hector Zenil, Oghenejokpeme Orhobor et al.

Large language models LLMs have transformed AI and achieved breakthrough performance on a wide range of tasks In science the most interesting application of LLMs is for hypothesis formation A feature of LLMs which results from their probabilistic structure is that the output text is not necessarily a valid inference from the training text These are termed hallucinations and are harmful in many applications In science some hallucinations may be useful novel hypotheses whose validity may be tested by laboratory experiments Here we experimentally test the application of LLMs as a source of scientific hypotheses using the domain of breast cancer treatment We applied the LLM GPT4 to hypothesize novel synergistic pairs of FDA-approved noncancer drugs that target the MCF7 breast cancer cell line relative to the nontumorigenic breast cell line MCF10A In the first round of laboratory experiments GPT4 succeeded in discovering three drug combinations out of twelve tested with synergy scores above the positive controls GPT4 then generated new combinations based on its initial results this generated three more combinations with positive synergy scores out of four tested We conclude that LLMs are a valuable source of scientific hypotheses.

Alexander H. Gower, Konstantin Korovin, Daniel Brunnsåker et al.

The process of developing theories and models and testing them with experiments is fundamental to the scientific method. Automating the entire scientific method then requires not only automation of the induction of theories from data, but also experimentation from design to implementation. This is the idea behind a robot scientist -- a coupled system of AI and laboratory robotics that has agency to test hypotheses with real-world experiments. In this chapter we explore some of the fundamentals of robot scientists in the philosophy of science. We also map the activities of a robot scientist to machine learning paradigms, and argue that the scientific method shares an analogy with active learning. We demonstrate these concepts using examples from previous robot scientists, and also from Genesis: a next generation robot scientist designed for research in systems biology, comprising a micro-fluidic system with 1000 computer-controlled micro-bioreactors and interpretable models based in controlled vocabularies and logic.

Stefan Kramer, Mattia Cerrato, Jannis Brugger et al.

The paper surveys automated scientific discovery, from equation discovery and symbolic regression to autonomous discovery systems and agents. It discusses the individual approaches from a "big picture" perspective and in context, but also discusses open issues and recent topics like the various roles of deep neural networks in this area, aiding in the discovery of human-interpretable knowledge. Further, we will present closed-loop scientific discovery systems, starting with the pioneering work on the Adam system up to current efforts in fields from material science to astronomy. Finally, we will elaborate on autonomy from a machine learning perspective, but also in analogy to the autonomy levels in autonomous driving. The maximal level, level five, is defined to require no human intervention at all in the production of scientific knowledge. Achieving this is one step towards solving the Nobel Turing Grand Challenge to develop AI Scientists: AI systems capable of making Nobel-quality scientific discoveries highly autonomously at a level comparable, and possibly superior, to the best human scientists by 2050.

Lam Pham, Alexander Schindler, Mina Schütz et al.

In this paper, we present deep learning frameworks for audio-visual scene classification (SC) and indicate how individual visual and audio features as well as their combination affect SC performance. Our extensive experiments, which are conducted on DCASE (IEEE AASP Challenge on Detection and Classification of Acoustic Scenes and Events) Task 1B development dataset, achieve the best classification accuracy of 82.2%, 91.1%, and 93.9% with audio input only, visual input only, and both audio-visual input, respectively. The highest classification accuracy of 93.9%, obtained from an ensemble of audio-based and visual-based frameworks, shows an improvement of 16.5% compared with DCASE baseline.

Alexander Schindler, Andrew Lindley, Anahid Jalali et al.

The forensic investigation of a terrorist attack poses a significant challenge to the investigative authorities, as often several thousand hours of video footage must be viewed. Large scale Video Analytic Platforms (VAP) assist law enforcement agencies (LEA) in identifying suspects and securing evidence. Current platforms focus primarily on the integration of different computer vision methods and thus are restricted to a single modality. We present a video analytic platform that integrates visual and audio analytic modules and fuses information from surveillance cameras and video uploads from eyewitnesses. Videos are analyzed according their acoustic and visual content. Specifically, Audio Event Detection is applied to index the content according to attack-specific acoustic concepts. Audio similarity search is utilized to identify similar video sequences recorded from different perspectives. Visual object detection and tracking are used to index the content according to relevant concepts. Innovative user-interface concepts are introduced to harness the full potential of the heterogeneous results of the analytical modules, allowing investigators to more quickly follow-up on leads and eyewitness reports.

Ivan Olier, Oghenejokpeme I. Orhobor, Joaquin Vanschoren et al.

The key to success in machine learning (ML) is the use of effective data representations. Traditionally, data representations were hand-crafted. Recently it has been demonstrated that, given sufficient data, deep neural networks can learn effective implicit representations from simple input representations. However, for most scientific problems, the use of deep learning is not appropriate as the amount of available data is limited, and/or the output models must be explainable. Nevertheless, many scientific problems do have significant amounts of data available on related tasks, which makes them amenable to multi-task learning, i.e. learning many related problems simultaneously. Here we propose a novel and general representation learning approach for multi-task learning that works successfully with small amounts of data. The fundamental new idea is to transform an input intrinsic data representation (i.e., handcrafted features), to an extrinsic representation based on what a pre-trained set of models predict about the examples. This transformation has the dual advantages of producing significantly more accurate predictions, and providing explainable models. To demonstrate the utility of this transformative learning approach, we have applied it to three real-world scientific problems: drug-design (quantitative structure activity relationship learning), predicting human gene expression (across different tissue types and drug treatments), and meta-learning for machine learning (predicting which machine learning methods work best for a given problem). In all three problems, transformative machine learning significantly outperforms the best intrinsic representation.

Ivan Olier, Noureddin Sadawi, G. Richard Bickerton et al.

We investigate the learning of quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) as a case-study of meta-learning. This application area is of the highest societal importance, as it is a key step in the development of new medicines. The standard QSAR learning problem is: given a target (usually a protein) and a set of chemical compounds (small molecules) with associated bioactivities (e.g. inhibition of the target), learn a predictive mapping from molecular representation to activity. Although almost every type of machine learning method has been applied to QSAR learning there is no agreed single best way of learning QSARs, and therefore the problem area is well-suited to meta-learning. We first carried out the most comprehensive ever comparison of machine learning methods for QSAR learning: 18 regression methods, 6 molecular representations, applied to more than 2,700 QSAR problems. (These results have been made publicly available on OpenML and represent a valuable resource for testing novel meta-learning methods.) We then investigated the utility of algorithm selection for QSAR problems. We found that this meta-learning approach outperformed the best individual QSAR learning method (random forests using a molecular fingerprint representation) by up to 13%, on average. We conclude that meta-learning outperforms base-learning methods for QSAR learning, and as this investigation is one of the most extensive ever comparisons of base and meta-learning methods ever made, it provides evidence for the general effectiveness of meta-learning over base-learning.

Ross D. King

Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general form of information - computer programs. The key advantage that using programs for money (program-money) adds to the technology of money is agency. Program-money is active and thereby can fully participate in economics as economic agents. I describe the three basic technologies required to implement program-money: computational languages/logics to unambiguously describe the actions and interactions of program-money; computational cryptography to ensure that only the correct actions and interactions are performed; and a distributed computational environment in which the money can execute. I demonstrate that most of the technology for program-money has already been developed. The adoption of program-money transfers responsibility from human economic agents to money itself and has great potential economic advantages over the current passive form of money. For example in microeconomics, adding agency to money will simplify the exchange of ownership, ensure money is only used legally, automate the negotiation and forming of contracts, etc. Similar advantages occur in macroeconomics, where for example the control of the money supply could be transferred from central banks to money. It is also possible to envisage money that is not owned by any external human agent or corporation. One motivation for this is to force economic systems to behave more rationally and/or more like a specific economic theory, thereby increasing the success of economic forecasting.