Simon Godsill

Nermin Caber, Bashar I. Ahmad, Jiaming Liang et al.

Monitoring drivers' mental workload facilitates initiating and maintaining safe interactions with in-vehicle information systems, and thus delivers adaptive human machine interaction with reduced impact on the primary task of driving. In this paper, we tackle the problem of workload estimation from driving performance data. First, we present a novel on-road study for collecting subjective workload data via a modified peripheral detection task in naturalistic settings. Key environmental factors that induce a high mental workload are identified via video analysis, e.g. junctions and behaviour of vehicle in front. Second, a supervised learning framework using state-of-the-art time series classifiers (e.g. convolutional neural network and transform techniques) is introduced to profile drivers based on the average workload they experience during a journey. A Bayesian filtering approach is then proposed for sequentially estimating, in (near) real-time, the driver's instantaneous workload. This computationally efficient and flexible method can be easily personalised to a driver (e.g. incorporate their inferred average workload profile), adapted to driving/environmental contexts (e.g. road type) and extended with data streams from new sources. The efficacy of the presented profiling and instantaneous workload estimation approaches are demonstrated using the on-road study data, showing $F_{1}$ scores of up to 92% and 81%, respectively.

Yaman Kındap, Simon Godsill

Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail to model uncertainty adequately and may over-smooth inferences. Here we extend the GP framework into a new class of time-changed GPs that allow for straightforward modelling of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian behaviours, while retaining a tractable conditional GP structure through an infinite mixture of non-homogeneous GPs representation. The conditional GP structure is obtained by conditioning the observations on a latent transformed input space and the random evolution of the latent transformation is modelled using a Lévy process which allows Bayesian inference in both the posterior predictive density and the latent transformation function. We present Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures for this model and demonstrate the potential benefits compared to a standard GP.

James M. Cozens, Simon J. Godsill

We introduce a new method for estimating the Ideal Time-Frequency Representation (ITFR) of complex nonstationary signals. The Reconstructive Ideal Fractional Transform (RIFT) computes a constellation of Continuous Fractional Wavelet Transforms (CFWTs) aligned to different local time-frequency curvatures. This constellation is combined into a single optimised time-frequency energy representation via a localised entropy-based sparsity measure, designed to resolve auto-terms and attenuate cross-terms. Finally, a positivity-constrained Lucy-Richardson deconvolution with total-variation regularisation is applied to estimate the ITFR, achieving auto-term resolution comparable to that of the Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD), yielding the high-resolution RIFT representation. The required Cohen's class convolutional kernels are fully derived in the paper for the chosen CFWT constellations. Additionally, the optimisation yields an Instantaneous Phase Direction (IPD) field, which allows the localised curvature in speech or music extracts to be visualised and utilised within a Kalman tracking scheme, enabling the extraction of signal component trajectories and the construction of the Spline-RIFT variant. Evaluation on synthetic and real-world signals demonstrates the algorithm's ability to effectively suppress cross-terms and achieve superior time-frequency precision relative to competing methods. This advance holds significant potential for a wide range of applications requiring high-resolution cross-term-free time-frequency analysis.

Runze Gan, Qing Li, Simon J. Godsill et al.

Multi-object detection and tracking from noisy point clouds remain challenging in many data-scarce radar applications. Current Bayesian trackers based on Poisson measurement models offer a training-free solution but struggle to achieve accuracy and efficiency under severe clutter, large object populations, and full-resolution Doppler point clouds. We address this with PiVoT, a fast, clutter-resilient multi-object tracker for both positional and Doppler measurements. PiVoT performs end-to-end detection and tracking of a large and time-varying number of objects without external clustering or detectors, through joint inference of object states, shapes, existence probabilities, data association, and measurement rates. Its efficiency is driven by several variational inference innovations, such as theoretically justified birth pruning, quadratic-to-linear complexity reductions for exact updates, and a computationally efficient Doppler Poisson model. Experiments show that PiVoT substantially outperforms existing Bayesian trackers in challenging scenes, while also demonstrating exceptional scalability to a thousand objects, robustness to clutter visually inseparable from objects, and real-time operation on full-scale modern automotive radar datasets, where it attains performance comparable to a deep-learning detection benchmark as a training-free joint detector and tracker.

Qing Li, Runze Gan, Simon Godsill

This paper tackles the challenge of multi-sensor multi-object tracking by proposing various decentralised Variational Inference (VI) schemes that match the tracking performance of centralised sensor fusion with only local message exchanges among neighboring sensors. We first establish a centralised VI sensor fusion scheme as a benchmark and analyse the limitations of its decentralised counterpart, which requires sensors to await consensus at each VI iteration. Therefore, we propose a decentralised gradient-based VI framework that optimises the Locally Maximised Evidence Lower Bound (LM-ELBO) instead of the standard ELBO, which reduces the parameter search space and enables faster convergence, making it particularly beneficial for decentralised tracking. This proposed framework is inherently self-evolving, improving with advancements in decentralised optimisation techniques for convergence guarantees and efficiency. Further, we enhance the convergence speed of proposed decentralised schemes using natural gradients and gradient tracking strategies. Results verify that our decentralised VI schemes are empirically equivalent to centralised fusion in tracking performance. Notably, the decentralised natural gradient VI method is the most communication-efficient, with communication costs comparable to suboptimal decentralised strategies while delivering notably higher tracking accuracy.

Fred Lydeard, Bashar I. Ahmad, Simon Godsill

This paper presents a computationally efficient multi-object tracking approach that can minimise track breaks (e.g., in challenging environments and against agile targets), learn the measurement model parameters on-line (e.g., in dynamically changing scenes) and infer the class of the tracked objects, if joint tracking and kinematic behaviour classification is sought. It capitalises on the flexibilities offered by the integrated Gaussian process as a motion model and the convenient statistical properties of non-homogeneous Poisson processes as a suitable observation model. This can be combined with the proposed effective track revival / stitching mechanism. We accordingly introduce the two robust and adaptive trackers, Gaussian and Poisson Process with Classification (GaPP-Class) and GaPP with Revival and Classification (GaPP-ReaCtion). They employ an appropriate particle filtering inference scheme that efficiently integrates track management and hyperparameter learning (including the object class, if relevant). GaPP-ReaCtion extends GaPP-Class with the addition of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo kernel applied to each particle permitting track revival and stitching (e.g., within a few time steps after deleting a trajectory). Performance evaluation and benchmarking using synthetic and real data show that GaPP-Class and GaPP-ReaCtion outperform other state-of-the-art tracking algorithms. For example, GaPP-ReaCtion significantly reduces track breaks (e.g., by around 30% from real radar data and markedly more from simulated data).

Matthew Hawes, Lyudmila Mihaylova, Francois Septier et al.

In this paper, we look to address the problem of estimating the dynamic direction of arrival (DOA) of a narrowband signal impinging on a sensor array from the far field. The initial estimate is made using a Bayesian compressive sensing (BCS) framework and then tracked using a Bayesian compressed sensing Kalman filter (BCSKF). The BCS framework splits the angular region into N potential DOAs and enforces a belief that only a few of the DOAs will have a non-zero valued signal present. A BCSKF can then be used to track the change in the DOA using the same framework. There can be an issue when the DOA approaches the endfire of the array. In this angular region current methods can struggle to accurately estimate and track changes in the DOAs. To tackle this problem, we propose changing the traditional sparse belief associated with BCS to a belief that the estimated signals will match the predicted signals given a known DOA change. This is done by modelling the difference between the expected sparse received signals and the estimated sparse received signals as a Gaussian distribution. Example test scenarios are provided and comparisons made with the traditional BCS based estimation method. They show that an improvement in estimation accuracy is possible without a significant increase in computational complexity.