Peter Yatsyshin

Tom Dunstan, Oliver Strickson, Thusal Bennett et al.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses \textit{alone} may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

Paula Cordero-Encinar, Tobias Schröder, Peter Yatsyshin et al.

Selecting cost-effective optimal sensor configurations for subsequent inference of parameters in black-box stochastic systems faces significant computational barriers. We propose a novel and robust approach, modelling the joint distribution over input parameters and solution with a joint energy-based model, trained on simulation data. Unlike existing simulation-based inference approaches, which must be tied to a specific set of point evaluations, we learn a functional representation of parameters and solution. This is used as a resolution-independent plug-and-play surrogate for the joint distribution, which can be conditioned over any set of points, permitting an efficient approach to sensor placement. We demonstrate the validity of our framework on a variety of stochastic problems, showing that our method provides highly informative sensor locations at a lower computational cost compared to conventional approaches.

Peter Yatsyshin, Serafim Kalliadasis, Andrew B. Duncan

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that system? By combining non-parametric Bayesian inference with physically-motivated constraints, we develop an efficient learning algorithm which automates the construction of approximate free energy functionals. In contrast to optimisation-based machine learning approaches, which seek to minimise a cost function, the central idea of the proposed Bayesian inference is to propagate a set of prior assumptions through the model, derived from physical principles. The experimental data is used to probabilistically weigh the possible model predictions. This naturally leads to humanly interpretable algorithms with full uncertainty quantification of predictions. In our case, the output of the learning algorithm is a probability distribution over a family of free energy functionals, consistent with the observed particle data. We find that surprisingly small data samples contain sufficient information for inferring highly accurate analytic expressions of the underlying free energy functionals, making our algorithm highly data efficient. We consider excluded volume particle interactions, which are ubiquitous in nature, whilst being highly challenging for modelling in terms of free energy. To validate our approach we consider the paradigmatic case of one-dimensional fluid and develop inference algorithms for the canonical and grand-canonical statistical-mechanical ensembles. Extensions to higher-dimensional systems are conceptually straightforward, whilst standard coarse-graining techniques allow one to easily incorporate attractive interactions.