Robert Hu

Robert Hu, Siu Lun Chau, Jaime Ferrando Huertas et al. · oxford

While preference modelling is becoming one of the pillars of machine learning, the problem of preference explanation remains challenging and underexplored. In this paper, we propose \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, a Shapley value-based model explanation framework for pairwise comparison data. We derive the appropriate value functions for preference models and further extend the framework to model and explain \emph{context specific} information, such as the surface type in a tennis game. To demonstrate the utility of \textsc{Pref-SHAP}, we apply our method to a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets and show that richer and more insightful explanations can be obtained over the baseline.

Veit D. Wild, Robert Hu, Dino Sejdinovic

We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian measures on the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions in order to determine a variational posterior using a tractable optimisation criterion and avoids pathologies arising in standard variational function space inference. An exciting application of GWI is the ability to use deep neural networks in the variational parametrisation of GWI, combining their superior predictive performance with the principled uncertainty quantification analogous to that of Gaussian processes. The proposed method obtains state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets.

Jake Fawkes, Robert Hu, Robin J. Evans et al.

With the widespread application of causal inference, it is increasingly important to have tools which can test for the presence of causal effects in a diverse array of circumstances. In this vein we focus on the problem of testing for \emph{distributional} causal effects, where the treatment affects not just the mean, but also higher order moments of the distribution, as well as multidimensional or structured outcomes. We build upon a previously introduced framework, Counterfactual Mean Embeddings, for representing causal distributions within Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) by proposing new, improved, estimators for the distributional embeddings. These improved estimators are inspired by doubly robust estimators of the causal mean, using a similar form within the kernel space. We analyse these estimators, proving they retain the doubly robust property and have improved convergence rates compared to the original estimators. This leads to new permutation based tests for distributional causal effects, using the estimators we propose as tests statistics. We experimentally and theoretically demonstrate the validity of our tests.

Robert Hu, Dino Sejdinovic, Robin J. Evans

Causal inference grows increasingly complex as the number of confounders increases. Given treatments $X$, confounders $Z$ and outcomes $Y$, we develop a non-parametric method to test the \textit{do-null} hypothesis $H_0:\; p(y|\text{\it do}(X=x))=p(y)$ against the general alternative. Building on the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) for marginal independence testing, we propose backdoor-HSIC (bd-HSIC) and demonstrate that it is calibrated and has power for both binary and continuous treatments under a large number of confounders. Additionally, we establish convergence properties of the estimators of covariance operators used in bd-HSIC. We investigate the advantages and disadvantages of bd-HSIC against parametric tests as well as the importance of using the do-null testing in contrast to marginal independence testing or conditional independence testing. A complete implementation can be found at \hyperlink{https://github.com/MrHuff/kgformula}{\texttt{https://github.com/MrHuff/kgformula}}.

Robert Hu, Carlo Luschi, Paul Balanca

The increasing computational demands of foundation models have spurred research into low-precision training, with 4-bit floating-point (\texttt{FP4}) formats emerging as a frontier for maximizing hardware throughput. While numerous techniques have been proposed to stabilize \texttt{FP4} training, they often present isolated solutions with varying, and not always clear, computational overheads. This paper aims to provide a unified view of the design space of \texttt{FP4} training. We introduce a comprehensive, quantisation gradient-based framework for microscaling quantization that allows for a theoretical analysis of the computational costs associated with different stabilization methods on both the forward and backward passes. Using a simulator built on this framework, we conduct an extensive empirical study across a wide range of machine learning tasks, including regression, image classification, diffusion models, and language models. By systematically evaluating thousands of combinations of techniques, such as novel gradient approximations, rounding strategies, and scaling methods, we identify which configurations offer the most favourable performance-to-overhead trade-off. We find that the techniques enabling the best trade-off involve carefully combining Hadamard transformations, tensor scaling and stochastic rounding. We further find that using \texttt{UE5M3} as a scaling factor potentially offers a good compromise between range and precision with manageable computational overhead.

Robert Hu, Siu Lun Chau, Dino Sejdinovic et al.

Kernel matrix-vector multiplication (KMVM) is a foundational operation in machine learning and scientific computing. However, as KMVM tends to scale quadratically in both memory and time, applications are often limited by these computational constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel approximation procedure coined \textit{Faster-Fast and Free Memory Method} ($\fthreem$) to address these scaling issues of KMVM for tall~($10^8\sim 10^9$) and skinny~($D\leq7$) data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that $\fthreem$ has empirical \emph{linear time and memory} complexity with a relative error of order $10^{-3}$ and can compute a full KMVM for a billion points \emph{in under a minute} on a high-end GPU, leading to a significant speed-up in comparison to existing CPU methods. We demonstrate the utility of our procedure by applying it as a drop-in for the state-of-the-art GPU-based linear solver FALKON, \emph{improving speed 1.5-5.5 times} at the cost of $<1\%$ drop in accuracy. We further demonstrate competitive results on \emph{Gaussian Process regression} coupled with significant speedups on a variety of real-world datasets.

Siu Lun Chau, Robert Hu, Javier Gonzalez et al.

Feature attribution for kernel methods is often heuristic and not individualised for each prediction. To address this, we turn to the concept of Shapley values~(SV), a coalition game theoretical framework that has previously been applied to different machine learning model interpretation tasks, such as linear models, tree ensembles and deep networks. By analysing SVs from a functional perspective, we propose \textsc{RKHS-SHAP}, an attribution method for kernel machines that can efficiently compute both \emph{Interventional} and \emph{Observational Shapley values} using kernel mean embeddings of distributions. We show theoretically that our method is robust with respect to local perturbations - a key yet often overlooked desideratum for consistent model interpretation. Further, we propose \emph{Shapley regulariser}, applicable to a general empirical risk minimisation framework, allowing learning while controlling the level of specific feature's contributions to the model. We demonstrate that the Shapley regulariser enables learning which is robust to covariate shift of a given feature and fair learning which controls the SVs of sensitive features.

David Rindt, Robert Hu, David Steinsaltz et al.

We consider frequently used scoring rules for right-censored survival regression models such as time-dependent concordance, survival-CRPS, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood, and prove that neither of them is a proper scoring rule. This means that the true survival distribution may be scored worse than incorrect distributions, leading to inaccurate estimation. We prove that, in contrast to these scores, the right-censored log-likelihood is a proper scoring rule, i.e., the highest expected score is achieved by the true distribution. Despite this, modern feed-forward neural-network-based survival regression models are unable to train and validate directly on the right-censored log-likelihood, due to its intractability, and resort to the aforementioned alternatives, i.e., non-proper scoring rules. We therefore propose a simple novel survival regression method capable of directly optimizing log-likelihood using a monotonic restriction on the time-dependent weights, coined SurvivalMonotonic-net (SuMo-net). SuMo-net achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihood scores across several datasets with 20--100$\times$ computational speedup on inference over existing state-of-the-art neural methods, and is readily applicable to datasets with several million observations.

Robert Hu, Geoff K. Nicholls, Dino Sejdinovic

We outline an inherent weakness of tensor factorization models when latent factors are expressed as a function of side information and propose a novel method to mitigate this weakness. We coin our method \textit{Kernel Fried Tensor}(KFT) and present it as a large scale forecasting tool for high dimensional data. Our results show superior performance against \textit{LightGBM} and \textit{Field Aware Factorization Machines}(FFM), two algorithms with proven track records widely used in industrial forecasting. We also develop a variational inference framework for KFT and associate our forecasts with calibrated uncertainty estimates on three large scale datasets. Furthermore, KFT is empirically shown to be robust against uninformative side information in terms of constants and Gaussian noise.