Yang Weng

Jiafan Yu, Yang Weng, Ram Rajagopal

Grid topology and line parameters are essential for grid operation and planning, which may be missing or inaccurate in distribution grids. Existing data-driven approaches for recovering such information usually suffer from ignoring 1) input measurement errors and 2) possible state changes among historical measurements. While using the errors-in-variables (EIV) model and letting the parameter and topology estimation interact with each other (PaToPa) can address input and output measurement error modeling, it only works when all measurements are from a single system state. To solve the two challenges simultaneously, we propose the PaToPaEM framework for joint line parameter and topology estimation with historical measurements from different unknown states. We improve the static framework that only works when measurements are from one single state, by further treating state changes in historical measurements as an unobserved latent variable. We then systematically analyze the new mathematical modeling, decouple the optimization problem, and incorporate the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to recover different hidden states in measurements. Combining these, PaToPaEM framework enables joint topology and line parameter estimation using noisy measurements from multiple system states. It lays a solid foundation for data-driven system identification in distribution grids. Superior numerical results validate the practicability of the PaToPaEM framework.

Qiushi Cui, Yang Weng, Chin-Woo Tan

For accommodating more electric vehicles (EVs) to battle against fossil fuel emission, the problem of charging station placement is inevitable and could be costly if done improperly. Some researches consider a general setup, using conditions such as driving ranges for planning. However, most of the EV growths in the next decades will happen in the urban area, where driving ranges is not the biggest concern. For such a need, we consider several practical aspects of urban systems, such as voltage regulation cost and protection device upgrade resulting from the large integration of EVs. Notably, our diversified objective can reveal the trade-off between different factors in different cities worldwide. To understand the global optimum of large-scale analysis, we add constraint one-by-one to see how to preserve the problem convexity. Our sensitivity analysis before and after convexification shows that our approach is not only universally applicable but also has a small approximation error for prioritizing the most urgent constraint in a specific setup. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the trade-off, the relationship between different factors and the global objective, and the small approximation error. A unique observation in this study shows the importance of incorporating the protection device upgrade in urban system planning on charging stations.

Qiushi Cui, Khalil El-Arroudi, Yang Weng

High impedance fault (HIF) has been a challenging task to detect in distribution networks. On one hand, although several types of HIF models are available for HIF study, they are still not exhibiting satisfactory fault waveforms. On the other hand, utilizing historical data has been a trend recently for using machine learning methods to improve HIF detection. Nonetheless, most proposed methodologies address the HIF issue starting with investigating a limited group of features and can hardly provide a practical and implementable solution. This paper, however, proposes a systematic design of feature extraction, based on an HIF detection and classification method. For example, features are extracted according to when, how long, and what magnitude the fault events create. Complementary power expert information is also integrated into the feature pools. Subsequently, we propose a ranking procedure in the feature pool for balancing the information gain and the complexity to avoid over-fitting. For implementing the framework, we create an HIF detection logic from a practical perspective. Numerical methods show the proposed HIF detector has very high dependability and security performance under multiple fault scenarios comparing with other traditional methods.

Y. Weng, R. Rajagopal, B. Zhang

Understanding the feasible power flow region is of central importance to power system analysis. In this paper, we propose a geometric view of the power system loadability problem. By using rectangular coordinates for complex voltages, we provide an integrated geometric understanding of active and reactive power flow equations on loadability boundaries. Based on such an understanding, we develop a linear programming framework to 1) verify if an operating point is on the loadability boundary, 2) compute the margin of an operating point to the loadability boundary, and 3) calculate a loadability boundary point of any direction. The proposed method is computationally more efficient than existing methods since it does not require solving nonlinear optimization problems or calculating the eigenvalues of the power flow Jacobian. Standard IEEE test cases demonstrate the capability of the new method compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.

Haoran Li, Yang Weng, Yizheng Liao et al.

With more distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to distribution grids, better monitoring and control are needed, where identifying the topology accurately is the prerequisite. However, due to frequent re-configurations, operators usually cannot know a complete structure in distribution grids. Luckily, the growing data from smart sensors, restricted by Ohm law, provides the possibility of topology inference. In this paper, we show how line parameters of Ohm equation can be estimated for topology identification even when there are hidden nodes. Specifically, the introduced learning method recursively conducts hidden-node detection and impedance calculation. However, the assumptions on uncorrelated data, availability of phasor measurements, and a balanced system, are not met in practices, causing large errors. To resolve these problems, we employ Cholesky whitening first with a proof for measurement decorrelations. For increasing robustness further, we show how to handle practical scenarios when only measurement magnitudes are available or when the grid is three-phase unbalanced. Numerical performance is verified on multi-size distribution grids with both simulation and real-world data.

Kishan Prudhvi Guddanti, Yang Weng, Baosen Zhang

The power flow (PF) problem is a fundamental problem in power system engineering. Many popular solvers face challenges, such as convergence issues. One can try to rewrite the PF problem into a fixed point equation, which can be solved exponentially fast. But, existing methods have their own restrictions, such as the required AC network structure or bus types. To remove these restrictions, we employ the circle geometry per-bus via rectangular coordinate representation to embed our physical knowledge of operation point selection in PV curves. Each iteration of the algorithm consists of finding intersections of circles, which can be computed efficiently with high numerical accuracy. Such analysis also helps in visualizing PV curve to always select the high voltage solution. We compare the performance of our fixed point algorithm with existing state-of-the-art methods, showing that the proposed method can correctly find the solutions when other methods cannot. In addition, we empirically show that the fixed point algorithm is much more robust to bad initialization points than the existing methods.

Chenhan Xiao, Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng

Line outage identification in distribution grids is essential for sustainable grid operation. In this work, we propose a practical yet robust detection approach that utilizes only readily available voltage magnitudes, eliminating the need for costly phase angles or power flow data. Given the sensor data, many existing detection methods based on change-point detection require prior knowledge of outage patterns, which are unknown for real-world outage scenarios. To remove this impractical requirement, we propose a data-driven method to learn the parameters of the post-outage distribution through gradient descent. However, directly using gradient descent presents feasibility issues. To address this, we modify our approach by adding a Bregman divergence constraint to control the trajectory of the parameter updates, which eliminates the feasibility problems. As timely operation is the key nowadays, we prove that the optimal parameters can be learned with convergence guarantees via leveraging the statistical and physical properties of voltage data. We evaluate our approach using many representative distribution grids and real load profiles with 17 outage configurations. The results show that we can detect and localize the outage in a timely manner with only voltage magnitudes and without assuming a prior knowledge of outage patterns.

Muhao Guo, Yang Weng

Accurate detection and localization of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in satellite imagery is essential for optimizing microgrids and active distribution networks (ADNs), which are critical components of renewable energy systems. Existing methods lack transparency regarding their underlying algorithms or training datasets, rely on large, high-quality PV training data, and struggle to generalize to new geographic regions or varied environmental conditions without extensive re-training. These limitations lead to inconsistent detection outcomes, hindering large-scale deployment and data-driven grid optimization. In this paper, we investigate how large language models (LLMs) can be leveraged to overcome these challenges. Despite their promise, LLMs face several challenges in solar panel detection, including difficulties with multi-step logical processes, inconsistent output formatting, frequent misclassification of visually similar objects (e.g., shadows, parking lots), and low accuracy in complex tasks such as spatial localization and quantification. To overcome these issues, we propose the PV Assessment with LLMs (PVAL) framework, which incorporates task decomposition for more efficient workflows, output standardization for consistent and scalable formatting, few-shot prompting to enhance classification accuracy, and fine-tuning using curated PV datasets with detailed annotations. PVAL ensures transparency, scalability, and adaptability across heterogeneous datasets while minimizing computational overhead. By combining open-source accessibility with robust methodologies, PVAL establishes an automated and reproducible pipeline for solar panel detection, paving the way for large-scale renewable energy integration and optimized grid management.

Haoran Li, Muhao Guo, Yang Weng et al.

Deep sequence models have achieved notable success in time-series analysis, such as interpolation and forecasting. Recent advances move beyond discrete-time architectures like Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) toward continuous-time formulations such as the family of Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs). Generally, they have shown that capturing the underlying dynamics is beneficial for generic tasks like interpolation, extrapolation, and classification. However, existing methods approximate the dynamics using unconstrained neural networks, which struggle to adapt reliably under distributional shifts. In this paper, we recast time-series problems as the continuous ODE-based optimal control problem. Rather than learning dynamics solely from data, we optimize control actions that steer ODE trajectories toward task objectives, bringing control-theoretical performance guarantees. To achieve this goal, we need to (1) design the appropriate control actions and (2) apply effective optimal control algorithms. As the actions should contain rich context information, we propose to employ the discrete-time model to process past sequences and generate actions, leading to a coordinate model to extract long-term temporal features to modulate short-term continuous dynamics. During training, we apply model predictive control to plan multi-step future trajectories, minimize a task-specific cost, and greedily select the optimal current action. We show that, under mild assumptions, this multi-horizon optimization leads to exponential convergence to infinite-horizon solutions, indicating that the coordinate model can gain robust and generalizable performance. Extensive experiments on diverse time-series datasets validate our method's superior generalization and adaptability compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Muhao Guo, Yang Weng

The rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems poses challenges for power grid management, as many installations remain undocumented. While satellite imagery provides global coverage, traditional computer vision (CV) models such as CNNs and U-Nets require extensive labeled data and fail to generalize across regions. This study investigates the cross-domain generalization of a multimodal large language model (LLM) for global PV assessment. By leveraging structured prompts and fine-tuning, the model integrates detection, localization, and quantification within a unified schema. Cross-regional evaluation using the $Δ$F1 metric demonstrates that the proposed model achieves the smallest performance degradation across unseen regions, outperforming conventional CV and transformer baselines. These results highlight the robustness of multimodal LLMs under domain shift and their potential for scalable, transferable, and interpretable global PV mapping.

Muhao Guo, Haoran Li, Yang Weng

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have garnered significant attention for their design of continuous-depth neural networks and the ability to learn data/feature dynamics. However, for high-dimensional systems, estimating dynamics requires extensive calculations and suffers from high truncation errors for the ODE solvers. To address the issue, one intuitive approach is to consider the non-trivial topological space of the data distribution, i.e., a low-dimensional manifold. Existing methods often rely on knowledge of the manifold for projection or implicit transformation, restricting the ODE solutions on the manifold. Nevertheless, such knowledge is usually unknown in realistic scenarios. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to explore the underlying manifold to restrict the ODE process. Specifically, we employ a structure-preserved encoder to process data and find the underlying graph to approximate the manifold. Moreover, we propose novel methods to combine the NODE learning with the manifold, resulting in significant gains in computational speed and accuracy. Our experimental evaluations encompass multiple datasets, where we compare the accuracy, number of function evaluations (NFEs), and convergence speed of our model against existing baselines. Our results demonstrate superior performance, underscoring the effectiveness of our approach in addressing the challenges of high-dimensional datasets.

Haoran Li, Chenhan Xiao, Muhao Guo et al.

Learning dynamics is essential for model-based control and Reinforcement Learning in engineering systems, such as robotics and power systems. However, limited system measurements, such as those from low-resolution sensors, demand sample-efficient learning. Symmetry provides a powerful inductive bias by characterizing equivariant relations in system states to improve sample efficiency. While recent methods attempt to discover symmetries from data, they typically assume a single global symmetry group and treat symmetry discovery and dynamic learning as separate tasks, leading to limited expressiveness and error accumulation. In this paper, we propose the Latent Mixture of Symmetries (Latent MoS), an expressive model that captures a mixture of symmetry-governed latent factors from complex dynamical measurements. Latent MoS focuses on dynamic learning while locally and provably preserving the underlying symmetric transformations. To further capture long-term equivariance, we introduce a hierarchical architecture that stacks MoS blocks. Numerical experiments in diverse physical systems demonstrate that Latent MoS outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in interpolation and extrapolation tasks while offering interpretable latent representations suitable for future geometric and safety-critical analyses.

Xinyu He, Chenhan Xiao, Haoran Li et al.

Modern power systems are becoming increasingly dynamic, with changing topologies and time-varying loads driven by renewable energy variability, electric vehicle adoption, and active grid reconfiguration. Despite these changes, publicly available test cases remain scarce, due to security concerns and the significant effort required to anonymize real systems. Such limitations call for generative tools that can jointly synthesize grid structure and nodal dynamics. However, modeling the joint distribution of network topology, branch attributes, bus properties, and dynamic load profiles remains a major challenge, while preserving physical feasibility and avoiding prohibitive computational costs. We present PowerGrow, a co-generative framework that significantly reduces computational overhead while maintaining operational validity. The core idea is dependence decomposition: the complex joint distribution is factorized into a chain of conditional distributions over feasible grid topologies, time-series bus loads, and other system attributes, leveraging their mutual dependencies. By constraining the generation process at each stage, we implement a hierarchical graph beta-diffusion process for structural synthesis, paired with a temporal autoencoder that embeds time-series data into a compact latent space, improving both training stability and sample fidelity. Experiments across benchmark settings show that PowerGrow not only outperforms prior diffusion models in fidelity and diversity but also achieves a 98.9\% power flow convergence rate and improved N-1 contingency resilience. This demonstrates its ability to generate operationally valid and realistic power grid scenarios.

Haoran Li, Lihao Mai, Muhao Guo et al.

Accurate distribution grid topology is essential for reliable modern grid operations. However, real-world utility data originates from multiple sources with varying characteristics and levels of quality. In this work, developed in collaboration with Oncor Electric Delivery, we propose a scalable framework that reconstructs a trustworthy grid topology by systematically integrating heterogeneous data. We observe that distribution topology is fundamentally governed by two complementary dimensions: the spatial layout of physical infrastructure (e.g., GIS and asset metadata) and the dynamic behavior of the system in the signal domain (e.g., voltage time series). When jointly leveraged, these dimensions support a complete and physically coherent reconstruction of network connectivity. To address the challenge of uneven data quality without compromising observability, we introduce a confidence-aware inference mechanism that preserves structurally informative yet imperfect inputs, while quantifying the reliability of each inferred connection for operator interpretation. This soft handling of uncertainty is tightly coupled with hard enforcement of physical feasibility: we embed operational constraints, such as transformer capacity limits and radial topology requirements, directly into the learning process. Together, these components ensure that inference is both uncertainty-aware and structurally valid, enabling rapid convergence to actionable, trustworthy topologies under real-world deployment conditions. The proposed framework is validated using data from over 8000 meters across 3 feeders in Oncor's service territory, demonstrating over 95% accuracy in topology reconstruction and substantial improvements in confidence calibration and computational efficiency relative to baseline methods.

Muhao Guo, Jiaqi Wu, Yang Weng et al.

Ensuring privacy in large-scale open datasets is increasingly challenging under regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). While differential privacy (DP) provides strong theoretical guarantees, it primarily focuses on noise injection during model training, neglecting privacy preservation at the data publishing stage. Existing privacy-preserving data publishing (PPDP) approaches struggle to balance privacy and utility, particularly when data publishers and users are distinct entities. To address this gap, we focus on the graph recovery problem and propose a novel privacy-preserving estimation framework for open graph data, leveraging Gaussian DP (GDP) with a structured noise-injection mechanism. Unlike traditional methods that perturb gradients or model updates, our approach ensures unbiased graph structure recovery while enforcing DP at the data publishing stage. Moreover, we provide theoretical guarantees on estimation accuracy and extend our method to discrete-variable graphs, a setting often overlooked in DP research. Experimental results in graph learning demonstrate robust performance, offering a viable solution for privacy-conscious graph analysis.

Erik Blasch, Haoran Li, Zhihao Ma et al.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques continue to broaden across governmental and public sectors, such as power and energy - which serve as critical infrastructures for most societal operations. However, due to the requirements of reliability, accountability, and explainability, it is risky to directly apply AI-based methods to power systems because society cannot afford cascading failures and large-scale blackouts, which easily cost billions of dollars. To meet society requirements, this paper proposes a methodology to develop, deploy, and evaluate AI systems in the energy sector by: (1) understanding the power system measurements with physics, (2) designing AI algorithms to forecast the need, (3) developing robust and accountable AI methods, and (4) creating reliable measures to evaluate the performance of the AI model. The goal is to provide a high level of confidence to energy utility users. For illustration purposes, the paper uses power system event forecasting (PEF) as an example, which carefully analyzes synchrophasor patterns measured by the Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Such a physical understanding leads to a data-driven framework that reduces the dimensionality with physics and forecasts the event with high credibility. Specifically, for dimensionality reduction, machine learning arranges physical information from different dimensions, resulting inefficient information extraction. For event forecasting, the supervised learning model fuses the results of different models to increase the confidence. Finally, comprehensive experiments demonstrate the high accuracy, efficiency, and reliability as compared to other state-of-the-art machine learning methods.

Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng, Chin-woo Tan et al.

The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration in distribution grids, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers report and smart meters' last gasp signals, will have poor performance, because the renewable generators and storages and the mesh structure in urban distribution grids can continue supplying power after line outages. To address these challenges, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis with a theoretical guarantee. Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution, which is unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood estimator to directly learn the distribution parameters from voltage data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection also achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for fast distribution grid outage identifications. Furthermore, since smart meters have been widely installed in distribution grids and advanced infrastructure (e.g., PMU) has not widely been available, our approach only requires voltage magnitude for quick outage identification. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using smart meter data.

Guangrui Xie, Xi Chen, Yang Weng

Load forecasting has long been recognized as an important building block for all utility operational planning efforts. Over the recent years, it has become ever more challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the proliferation of distributed energy resources, despite the abundance of existing load forecasting methods. In this paper, we identify one drawback suffered by most load forecasting methods: neglect to thoroughly address the impact of input errors on load forecasts. As a potential solution, we propose to incorporate input modeling and uncertainty quantification to improve load forecasting performance via a two-stage approach. The proposed two-stage approach has the following merits. (1) It provides input modeling and quantifies the impact of input errors, rather than neglecting or mitigating the impact, a prevalent practice of existing methods. (2) It propagates the impact of input errors into the ultimate point and interval predictions for the target customer's load to improve predictive performance. (3) A variance-based global sensitivity analysis method is further proposed for input-space dimensionality reduction in both stages to enhance the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments show that the proposed two-stage approach outperforms competing load forecasting methods in terms of both point predictive accuracy and coverage ability of the predictive intervals.

Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng, Chin-Woo Tan et al.

The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in urban distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers making phone calls and smart meters' "last gasp" signals, will have limited performance, because the renewable generators can supply powers after line outages and many urban grids are mesh so line outages do not affect power supply. To address these drawbacks, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis from micro phasor measurement unit ($μ$PMU). Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages via $μ$PMUs with fast and accurate sampling. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood-based method to directly learn the distribution parameters from $μ$PMU data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection still achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for distribution grid outage identifications. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using $μ$PMU data.

Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng, Guangyi Liu et al.

There is an increasing need for monitoring and controlling uncertainties brought by distributed energy resources in distribution grids. For such goal, accurate multi-phase topology is the basis for correlating measurements in unbalanced distribution networks. Unfortunately, such topology knowledge is often unavailable due to limited investment, especially for \revv{low-voltage} distribution grids. Also, the bus phase labeling information is inaccurate due to human errors or outdated records. For this challenge, this paper utilizes smart meter data for an information-theoretic approach to learn the topology of distribution grids. Specifically, multi-phase unbalanced systems are converted into symmetrical components, namely positive, negative, and zero sequences. Then, this paper proves that the Chow-Liu algorithm finds the topology by utilizing power flow equations and the conditional independence relationships implied by the radial multi-phase structure of distribution grids with the presence of incorrect bus phase labels. At last, by utilizing Carson's equation, this paper proves that the bus phase connection can be correctly identified using voltage measurements. For validation, IEEE systems are simulated using three real data sets. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm is highly accurate for finding multi-phase topology even with strong load unbalancing condition and DERs. This ensures close monitoring and controlling DERs in distribution grids.

Jiafan Yu, Yang Weng, Ram Rajagopal

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) calls for new monitoring and operational planning tools to ensure stability and sustainability in distribution grids. One idea is to use existing monitoring tools in transmission grids and some primary distribution grids. However, they usually depend on the knowledge of the system model, e.g., the topology and line parameters, which may be unavailable in primary and secondary distribution grids. Furthermore, a utility usually has limited modeling ability of active controllers for solar panels as they may belong to a third party like residential customers. To solve the modeling problem in traditional power flow analysis, we propose a support vector regression (SVR) approach to reveal the mapping rules between different variables and recover useful variables based on physical understanding and data mining. We illustrate the advantages of using the SVR model over traditional regression method which finds line parameters in distribution grids. Specifically, the SVR model is robust enough to recover the mapping rules while the regression method fails when 1) there are measurement outliers and missing data, 2) there are active controllers, or 3) measurements are only available at some part of a distribution grid. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method through extensive numerical validation on different scales of distribution grids.

Jiafan Yu, Yang Weng, Ram Rajagopal

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) calls for new planning and operational tools. However, such tools depend on system topology and line parameters, which may be missing or inaccurate in distribution grids. With abundant data, one idea is to use linear regression to find line parameters, based on which topology can be identified. Unfortunately, the linear regression method is accurate only if there is no noise in both the input measurements (e.g., voltage magnitude and phase angle) and output measurements (e.g., active and reactive power). For topology estimation, even with a small error in measurements, the regression-based method is incapable of finding the topology using non-zero line parameters with a proper metric. To model input and output measurement errors simultaneously, we propose the error-in-variables (EIV) model in a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework for joint line parameter and topology estimation. While directly solving the problem is NP-hard, we successfully adapt the problem into a generalized low-rank approximation problem via variable transformation and noise decorrelation. For accurate topology estimation, we let it interact with parameter estimation in a fashion that is similar to expectation-maximization fashion in machine learning. The proposed PaToPa approach does not require a radial network setting and works for mesh networks. We demonstrate the superior performance in accuracy for our method on IEEE test cases with actual feeder data from South California Edison.

Yizheng Liao, Yang Weng, Guangyi Liu et al.

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources poses numerous reliability issues to the urban distribution grid. The topology estimation is a critical step to ensure the robustness of distribution grid operation. However, the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation are usually hard in distribution grids. For example, it is technically challenging and costly to monitor the bus connectivity in urban grids, e.g., underground lines. It is also inappropriate to use the radial topology assumption exclusively because the grids of metropolitan cities and regions with dense loads could be with many mesh structures. To resolve these drawbacks, we propose a data-driven topology estimation method for MV and LV distribution grids by only utilizing the historical smart meter measurements. Particularly, a probabilistic graphical model is utilized to capture the statistical dependencies amongst bus voltages. We prove that the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation problems, in radial and mesh structures, can be formulated as a linear regression with a least absolute shrinkage regularization on grouped variables (\textit{group lasso}). Simulations show highly accurate results in eight MV and LV distribution networks at different sizes and 22 topology configurations using PG\&E residential smart meter data.

Pan Li, Baosen Zhang, Yang Weng et al.

Accurate prediction of user consumption is a key part not only in understanding consumer flexibility and behavior patterns, but in the design of robust and efficient energy saving programs as well. Existing prediction methods usually have high relative errors that can be larger than 30% and have difficulties accounting for heterogeneity between individual users. In this paper, we propose a method to improve prediction accuracy of individual users by adaptively exploring sparsity in historical data and leveraging predictive relationship between different users. Sparsity is captured by popular least absolute shrinkage and selection estimator, while user selection is formulated as an optimal hypothesis testing problem and solved via a covariance test. Using real world data from PG&E, we provide extensive simulation validation of the proposed method against well-known techniques such as support vector machine, principle component analysis combined with linear regression, and random forest. The results demonstrate that our proposed methods are operationally efficient because of linear nature, and achieve optimal prediction performance.