Eric L. Miller

Michael T. Wojnowicz, Shuchin Aeron, Eric L. Miller et al.

We pursue tractable Bayesian analysis of generalized linear models (GLMs) for categorical data. Thus far, GLMs are difficult to scale to more than a few dozen categories due to non-conjugacy or strong posterior dependencies when using conjugate auxiliary variable methods. We define a new class of GLMs for categorical data called categorical-from-binary (CB) models. Each CB model has a likelihood that is bounded by the product of binary likelihoods, suggesting a natural posterior approximation. This approximation makes inference straightforward and fast; using well-known auxiliary variables for probit or logistic regression, the product of binary models admits conjugate closed-form variational inference that is embarrassingly parallel across categories and invariant to category ordering. Moreover, an independent binary model simultaneously approximates multiple CB models. Bayesian model averaging over these can improve the quality of the approximation for any given dataset. We show that our approach scales to thousands of categories, outperforming posterior estimation competitors like Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) and No U-Turn Sampling (NUTS) in the time required to achieve fixed prediction quality.

Kevin C. Cheng, Shuchin Aeron, Michael C. Hughes et al.

We consider probabilistic models for sequential observations which exhibit gradual transitions among a finite number of states. We are particularly motivated by applications such as human activity analysis where observed accelerometer time series contains segments representing distinct activities, which we call pure states, as well as periods characterized by continuous transition among these pure states. To capture this transitory behavior, the dynamical Wasserstein barycenter (DWB) model of Cheng et al. in 2021 [1] associates with each pure state a data-generating distribution and models the continuous transitions among these states as a Wasserstein barycenter of these distributions with dynamically evolving weights. Focusing on the univariate case where Wasserstein distances and barycenters can be computed in closed form, we extend [1] specifically relaxing the parameterization of the pure states as Gaussian distributions. We highlight issues related to the uniqueness in identifying the model parameters as well as uncertainties induced when estimating a dynamically evolving distribution from a limited number of samples. To ameliorate non-uniqueness, we introduce regularization that imposes temporal smoothness on the dynamics of the barycentric weights. A quantile-based approximation of the pure state distributions yields a finite dimensional estimation problem which we numerically solve using cyclic descent alternating between updates to the pure-state quantile functions and the barycentric weights. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed algorithm in segmenting both simulated and real world human activity time series.

Bahar Kor, Bipin Gaikwad, Abani Patra et al.

We propose a framework for online Change Point Detection (CPD) from multi-entity, multivariate time series data, motivated by applications in crowd monitoring where traditional sensing methods (e.g., video surveillance) may be infeasible. Our approach addresses the challenge of detecting system-wide behavioral shifts in complex, dynamic environments where the number and behavior of individual entities may be uncertain or evolve. We introduce the concept of Individual Deviation from Normality (IDfN), computed via a reconstruction-error-based autoencoder trained on normal behavior. We aggregate these individual deviations using mean, variance, and Kernel Density Estimates (KDE) to yield a System-Wide Anomaly Score (SWAS). To detect persistent or abrupt changes, we apply statistical deviation metrics and the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) technique to these scores. Our unsupervised approach eliminates the need for labeled data or feature extraction, enabling real-time operation on streaming input. Evaluations on both synthetic datasets and crowd simulations, explicitly designed for anomaly detection in group behaviors, demonstrate that our method accurately detects significant system-level changes, offering a scalable and privacy-preserving solution for monitoring complex multi-agent systems. In addition to this methodological contribution, we introduce new, challenging multi-entity multivariate time series datasets generated from crowd simulations in Unity and coupled nonlinear oscillators. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no publicly available dataset of this type designed explicitly to evaluate CPD in complex collective and interactive systems, highlighting an essential gap that our work addresses.

Kevin C. Cheng, Shuchin Aeron, Michael C. Hughes et al.

Many time series can be modeled as a sequence of segments representing high-level discrete states, such as running and walking in a human activity application. Flexible models should describe the system state and observations in stationary "pure-state" periods as well as transition periods between adjacent segments, such as a gradual slowdown between running and walking. However, most prior work assumes instantaneous transitions between pure discrete states. We propose a dynamical Wasserstein barycentric (DWB) model that estimates the system state over time as well as the data-generating distributions of pure states in an unsupervised manner. Our model assumes each pure state generates data from a multivariate normal distribution, and characterizes transitions between states via displacement-interpolation specified by the Wasserstein barycenter. The system state is represented by a barycentric weight vector which evolves over time via a random walk on the simplex. Parameter learning leverages the natural Riemannian geometry of Gaussian distributions under the Wasserstein distance, which leads to improved convergence speeds. Experiments on several human activity datasets show that our proposed DWB model accurately learns the generating distribution of pure states while improving state estimation for transition periods compared to the commonly used linear interpolation mixture models.

Kevin C. Cheng, Eric L. Miller, Michael C. Hughes et al.

Non-parametric and distribution-free two-sample tests have been the foundation of many change point detection algorithms. However, randomness in the test statistic as a function of time makes them susceptible to false positives and localization ambiguity. We address these issues by deriving and applying filters matched to the expected temporal signatures of a change for various sliding window, two-sample tests under IID assumptions on the data. These filters are derived asymptotically with respect to the window size for the Wasserstein quantile test, the Wasserstein-1 distance test, Maximum Mean Discrepancy squared (MMD^2), and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test. The matched filters are shown to have two important properties. First, they are distribution-free, and thus can be applied without prior knowledge of the underlying data distributions. Second, they are peak-preserving, which allows the filtered signal produced by our methods to maintain expected statistical significance. Through experiments on synthetic data as well as activity recognition benchmarks, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for mitigating false positives and improving the test precision. Our method allows for the localization of change points without the use of ad-hoc post-processing to remove redundant detections common to current methods. We further highlight the performance of statistical tests based on the Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) function and show how the invariance property of the Q-Q function to order-preserving transformations allows these tests to detect change points of different scales with a single threshold within the same dataset.

Kevin C. Cheng, Shuchin Aeron, Michael C. Hughes et al.

Two common problems in time series analysis are the decomposition of the data stream into disjoint segments that are each in some sense "homogeneous" - a problem known as Change Point Detection (CPD) - and the grouping of similar nonadjacent segments, a problem that we call Time Series Segment Clustering (TSSC). Building upon recent theoretical advances characterizing the limiting distribution-free behavior of the Wasserstein two-sample test (Ramdas et al. 2015), we propose a novel algorithm for unsupervised, distribution-free CPD which is amenable to both offline and online settings. We also introduce a method to mitigate false positives in CPD and address TSSC by using the Wasserstein distance between the detected segments to build an affinity matrix to which we apply spectral clustering. Results on both synthetic and real data sets show the benefits of the approach.

Weitong Ruan, Eric L. Miller

Multi-task/Multi-output learning seeks to exploit correlation among tasks to enhance performance over learning or solving each task independently. In this paper, we investigate this problem in the context of Gaussian Processes (GPs) and propose a new model which learns a mixture of latent processes by decomposing the covariance matrix into a sum of structured hidden components each of which is controlled by a latent GP over input features and a "weight" over tasks. From this sum structure, we propose a parallelizable parameter learning algorithm with a predetermined initialization for the "weights". We also notice that an ensemble parameter learning approach using mini-batches of training data not only reduces the computation complexity of learning but also improves the regression performance. We evaluate our model on two datasets, the smaller Swiss Jura dataset and another relatively larger ATMS dataset from NOAA. Substantial improvements are observed compared with established alternatives.

Hamideh Rezaee, Brian Tracey, Eric L. Miller

In this paper we demonstrate the utility of fusing energy-resolved observations of Compton scattered photons with traditional attenuation data for the joint recovery of mass density and photoelectric absorption in the context of limited view tomographic imaging applications. We begin with the development of a physical and associated numerical model for the Compton scatter process. Using this model, we propose a variational approach recovering these two material properties. In addition to the typical data-fidelity terms, the optimization functional includes regularization for both the mass density and photoelectric coefficients. We consider a novel edge-preserving method in the case of mass density. To aid in the recovery of the photoelectric information, we draw on our recent method in \cite{r15} and employ a non-local regularization scheme that builds on the fact that mass density is more stably imaged. Simulation results demonstrate clear advantages associated with the use of both scattered photon data and energy resolved information in mapping the two material properties of interest. Specifically, comparing images obtained using only conventional attenuation data with those where we employ only Compton scatter photons and images formed from the combination of the two, shows that taking advantage of both types of data for reconstruction provides far more accurate results.

Brian H. Tracey, Eric L. Miller

Recent years have seen growing interest in exploiting dual- and multi-energy measurements in computed tomography (CT) in order to characterize material properties as well as object shape. Material characterization is performed by decomposing the scene into constitutive basis functions, such as Compton scatter and photoelectric absorption functions. While well motivated physically, the joint recovery of the spatial distribution of photoelectric and Compton properties is severely complicated by the fact that the data are several orders of magnitude more sensitive to Compton scatter coefficients than to photoelectric absorption, so small errors in Compton estimates can create large artifacts in the photoelectric estimate. To address these issues, we propose a model-based iterative approach which uses patch-based regularization terms to stabilize inversion of photoelectric coefficients, and solve the resulting problem though use of computationally attractive Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) solution techniques. Using simulations and experimental data acquired on a commercial scanner, we demonstrate that the proposed processing can lead to more stable material property estimates which should aid materials characterization in future dual- and multi-energy CT systems.

Oguz Semerci, Ning Hao, Misha E. Kilmer et al.

The development of energy selective, photon counting X-ray detectors allows for a wide range of new possibilities in the area of computed tomographic image formation. Under the assumption of perfect energy resolution, here we propose a tensor-based iterative algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs the X-ray attenuation distribution for each energy. We use a multi-linear image model rather than a more standard "stacked vector" representation in order to develop novel tensor-based regularizers. Specifically, we model the multi-spectral unknown as a 3-way tensor where the first two dimensions are space and the third dimension is energy. This approach allows for the design of tensor nuclear norm regularizers, which like its two dimensional counterpart, is a convex function of the multi-spectral unknown. The solution to the resulting convex optimization problem is obtained using an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approach. Simulation results shows that the generalized tensor nuclear norm can be used as a stand alone regularization technique for the energy selective (spectral) computed tomography (CT) problem and when combined with total variation regularization it enhances the regularization capabilities especially at low energy images where the effects of noise are most prominent.