Max Nihlén Ramström

Kashif Rasul, Young-Jin Park, Max Nihlén Ramström et al.

Time series models aim for accurate predictions of the future given the past, where the forecasts are used for important downstream tasks like business decision making. In practice, deep learning based time series models come in many forms, but at a high level learn some continuous representation of the past and use it to output point or probabilistic forecasts. In this paper, we introduce a novel autoregressive architecture, VQ-AR, which instead learns a \emph{discrete} set of representations that are used to predict the future. Extensive empirical comparison with other competitive deep learning models shows that surprisingly such a discrete set of representations gives state-of-the-art or equivalent results on a wide variety of time series datasets. We also highlight the shortcomings of this approach, explore its zero-shot generalization capabilities, and present an ablation study on the number of representations. The full source code of the method will be available at the time of publication with the hope that researchers can further investigate this important but overlooked inductive bias for the time series domain.

Kyuyong Shin, Hanock Kwak, Su Young Kim et al.

Recent advancement of large-scale pretrained models such as BERT, GPT-3, CLIP, and Gopher, has shown astonishing achievements across various task domains. Unlike vision recognition and language models, studies on general-purpose user representation at scale still remain underexplored. Here we explore the possibility of general-purpose user representation learning by training a universal user encoder at large scales. We demonstrate that the scaling law is present in user representation learning areas, where the training error scales as a power-law with the amount of computation. Our Contrastive Learning User Encoder (CLUE), optimizes task-agnostic objectives, and the resulting user embeddings stretch our expectation of what is possible to do in various downstream tasks. CLUE also shows great transferability to other domains and companies, as performances on an online experiment shows significant improvements in Click-Through-Rate (CTR). Furthermore, we also investigate how the model performance is influenced by the scale factors, such as training data size, model capacity, sequence length, and batch size. Finally, we discuss the broader impacts of CLUE in general.