F. LeRon Shults

Devin R. Wright, Justin E. Lane, F. LeRon Shults

In light of increasing polarization and political violence, understanding the psychological roots of extremism is increasingly important. Prior research shows that identity fusion predicts willingness to engage in extreme acts. We evaluate the Cognitive Linguistic Identity Fusion Score, a method that uses cognitive linguistic patterns, LLMs, and implicit metaphor to measure fusion from language. Across datasets from the United Kingdom and Singapore, this approach outperforms existing methods in predicting validated fusion scores. Applied to extremist manifestos, two distinct high-fusion pathways to violence emerge: ideologues tend to frame themselves in terms of group, forming kinship bonds; whereas grievance-driven individuals frame the group in terms of their personal identity. These results refine theories of identity fusion and provide a scalable tool aiding fusion research and extremism detection.

Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Önder Gürcan, Vanja Falck et al.

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

Justin E. Lane, Kevin McCaffree, F. LeRon Shults

Left-wing authoritarianism remains far less understood than right-wing authoritarianism. We contribute to the literature on the former, which typically relies on surveys, using a new social media analytics approach. We use a list of 60 terms to provide an exploratory sketch of the outlines of a political ideology (tribal equalitarianism) with origins in 19th and 20th century social philosophy. We then use analyses of the English Corpus of Google Books (over 8 million books) and scraped unique tweets from Twitter (n = 202,852) to conduct a series of investigations to discern the extent to which this ideology is cohesive amongst the public, reveals signatures of authoritarianism and has been growing in popularity. Though exploratory, our results provide some evidence of left-wing authoritarianism in two forms (1) a uniquely conservative moral signature amongst ostensible liberals using measures from Moral Foundations Theory and (2) a substantial prevalence of anger, relative to anxiety or sadness. In general, results indicate that this worldview is growing in popularity, is increasingly cohesive, and shows signatures of authoritarianism.