Aoife Foley

Ildar Muftahov, Denis Sidorov, Aleksei Zhukov et al.

Development of reliable methods for optimised energy storage and generation is one of the most imminent challenges in moder power systems. In this paper an adaptive approach to load leveling problem using novel dynamic models based on the Volterra integral equations of the first kind with piecewise continuous kernels. These integral equations efficiently solve such inverse problem taking into account both the time dependent efficiencies and the availability of generation/storage of each energy storage technology. In this analysis a direct numerical method is employed to find the least-cost dispatch of available storages. The proposed collocation type numerical method has second order accuracy and enjoys self-regularization properties, which is associated with confidence levels of system demand. This adaptive approach is suitable for energy storage optimisation in real time. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on the Single Electricity Market of Republic of Ireland and Sakhalin island in the Russian Far East.

Denis Sidorov, Ildar Muftahov, Nikita Tomin et al.

Energy storage systems will play a key role in the power system of the twenty first century considering the large penetrations of variable renewable energy, growth in transport electrification and decentralisation of heating loads. Therefore reliable real time methods to optimise energy storage, demand response and generation are vital for power system operations. This paper presents a concise review of battery energy storage and an example of battery modelling for renewable energy applications and second details an adaptive approach to solve this load levelling problem with storage. A dynamic evolutionary model based on the first kind Volterra integral equation is used in both cases. A direct regularised numerical method is employed to find the least-cost dispatch of the battery in terms of integral equation solution. Validation on real data shows that the proposed evolutionary Volterra model effectively generalises conventional discrete integral model taking into account both state of health and the availability of generation/storage.

A. Zhukov, D. Sidorov, A. Foley

Concept drift has potential in smart grid analysis because the socio-economic behaviour of consumers is not governed by the laws of physics. Likewise there are also applications in wind power forecasting. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classification method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with original random forest with incorporated "replace-the-looser" forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drfit classifiers like AWE2.

Alexei Zhukov, Victor Kurbatsky, Nikita Tomin et al.

One of the most promising approaches for complex technical systems analysis employs ensemble methods of classification. Ensemble methods enable to build a reliable decision rules for feature space classification in the presence of many possible states of the system. In this paper, novel techniques based on decision trees are used for evaluation of the reliability of the regime of electric power systems. We proposed hybrid approach based on random forests models and boosting models. Such techniques can be applied to predict the interaction of increasing renewable power, storage devices and swiching of smart loads from intelligent domestic appliances, heaters and air-conditioning units and electric vehicles with grid for enhanced decision making. The ensemble classification methods were tested on the modified 118-bus IEEE power system showing that proposed technique can be employed to examine whether the power system is secured under steady-state operating conditions.