Brennan Klein

Karl J Friston, Maxwell J D Ramstead, Alex B Kiefer et al.

This white paper lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence for the next decade (and beyond). Its denouement is a cyber-physical ecosystem of natural and synthetic sense-making, in which humans are integral participants -- what we call ''shared intelligence''. This vision is premised on active inference, a formulation of adaptive behavior that can be read as a physics of intelligence, and which inherits from the physics of self-organization. In this context, we understand intelligence as the capacity to accumulate evidence for a generative model of one's sensed world -- also known as self-evidencing. Formally, this corresponds to maximizing (Bayesian) model evidence, via belief updating over several scales: i.e., inference, learning, and model selection. Operationally, this self-evidencing can be realized via (variational) message passing or belief propagation on a factor graph. Crucially, active inference foregrounds an existential imperative of intelligent systems; namely, curiosity or the resolution of uncertainty. This same imperative underwrites belief sharing in ensembles of agents, in which certain aspects (i.e., factors) of each agent's generative world model provide a common ground or frame of reference. Active inference plays a foundational role in this ecology of belief sharing -- leading to a formal account of collective intelligence that rests on shared narratives and goals. We also consider the kinds of communication protocols that must be developed to enable such an ecosystem of intelligences and motivate the development of a shared hyper-spatial modeling language and transaction protocol, as a first -- and key -- step towards such an ecology.

Moritz Laber, Brennan Klein

Homophily, the overrepresentation of interactions among similar individuals, and heterophily, the elevated prevalence of interactions among dissimilar ones, are frequently observed mixing patterns in social networks. As hypergraphs are increasingly used to represent social systems, a higher-order perspective on homophily and heterophily becomes ever more relevant. Here, we provide two complementary perspectives on this problem: First, we survey measures that can be used to quantify homophily (or heterophily) in hypergraphs -- emphasizing conceptual differences to existing pairwise measures -- and explain each measure through in-depth examples. Second, we provide an overview of hypergraph models for higher-order mixing patterns, distinguishing several model families with distinct use cases. By providing a guide to existing methods and synthesizing the current body of knowledge on higher-order homophily and heterophily, we lay the basis for informed methodological choices and future developments.

Conor Heins, Beren Millidge, Daphne Demekas et al.

Active inference is an account of cognition and behavior in complex systems which brings together action, perception, and learning under the theoretical mantle of Bayesian inference. Active inference has seen growing applications in academic research, especially in fields that seek to model human or animal behavior. While in recent years, some of the code arising from the active inference literature has been written in open source languages like Python and Julia, to-date, the most popular software for simulating active inference agents is the DEM toolbox of SPM, a MATLAB library originally developed for the statistical analysis and modelling of neuroimaging data. Increasing interest in active inference, manifested both in terms of sheer number as well as diversifying applications across scientific disciplines, has thus created a need for generic, widely-available, and user-friendly code for simulating active inference in open-source scientific computing languages like Python. The Python package we present here, pymdp (see https://github.com/infer-actively/pymdp), represents a significant step in this direction: namely, we provide the first open-source package for simulating active inference with partially-observable Markov Decision Processes or POMDPs. We review the package's structure and explain its advantages like modular design and customizability, while providing in-text code blocks along the way to demonstrate how it can be used to build and run active inference processes with ease. We developed pymdp to increase the accessibility and exposure of the active inference framework to researchers, engineers, and developers with diverse disciplinary backgrounds. In the spirit of open-source software, we also hope that it spurs new innovation, development, and collaboration in the growing active inference community.

Moritz Laber, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Brennan Klein

Neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs) can effectively learn dynamical systems from time series data, but their behavior on graph-structured data remains poorly understood, especially when applied to graphs with different size or structure than encountered during training. We study neural ODEs ($\mathtt{nODE}$s) with vector fields following the Barabási-Barzel form, trained on synthetic data from five common dynamical systems on graphs. Using the $\mathbb{S}^1$-model to generate graphs with realistic and tunable structure, we find that degree heterogeneity and the type of dynamical system are the primary factors in determining $\mathtt{nODE}$s' ability to generalize across graph sizes and properties. This extends to $\mathtt{nODE}$s' ability to capture fixed points and maintain performance amid missing data. Average clustering plays a secondary role in determining $\mathtt{nODE}$ performance. Our findings highlight $\mathtt{nODE}$s as a powerful approach to understanding complex systems but underscore challenges emerging from degree heterogeneity and clustering in realistic graphs.

Stefano Balietti, Brennan Klein, Christoph Riedl

Bayesian optimal experiments that maximize the information gained from collected data are critical to efficiently identify behavioral models. We extend a seminal method for designing Bayesian optimal experiments by introducing two computational improvements that make the procedure tractable: (1) a search algorithm from artificial intelligence that efficiently explores the space of possible design parameters, and (2) a sampling procedure which evaluates each design parameter combination more efficiently. We apply our procedure to a game of imperfect information to evaluate and quantify the computational improvements. We then collect data across five different experimental designs to compare the ability of the optimal experimental design to discriminate among competing behavioral models against the experimental designs chosen by a "wisdom of experts" prediction experiment. We find that data from the experiment suggested by the optimal design approach requires significantly less data to distinguish behavioral models (i.e., test hypotheses) than data from the experiment suggested by experts. Substantively, we find that reinforcement learning best explains human decision-making in the imperfect information game and that behavior is not adequately described by the Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Our procedure is general and computationally efficient and can be applied to dynamically optimize online experiments.