Xiao Lu

Xiaohu Zhang, Di Shi, Xiao Lu et al.

This paper proposes an approach to address the voltage stability assessment (VSA) considering N-1 contingency. The approach leverages the sensitivity based Thevenin index (STI) which involves evaluating the Jacobian matrix at current operating condition. Since the N-1 contingency case is hypothetical, there is no information regarding the operating condition after a foreseen contingency. The proposed approach first estimates the post-contingency operating point as well as possible PV-PQ transitions based on the current operating point. Then the STI for each contingency can be predicted using the estimated operating condition. Numerical results based on IEEE 14-bus system demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed approach in predicting the voltage stability margin under contingency. Moreover, the on-line implementation of the proposed approach is promising since it only involves solving several linear equations.

Qicheng Chang, Yishen Wang, Xiao Lu et al.

Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This paper proposes a two-stage probabilistic load forecasting framework by integrating point forecast as a key probabilistic forecasting feature into PLF. In the first stage, all related features are utilized to train a point forecast model and also obtain the feature importance. In the second stage the forecasting model is trained, taking into consideration point forecast features, as well as selected feature subsets. During the testing period of the forecast model, the final probabilistic load forecast results are leveraged to obtain both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Numerical results obtained from ISO New England demand data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in the hour-ahead load forecasting, which uses the gradient boosting regression for the point forecasting and quantile regression neural networks for the probabilistic forecasting.

Yayu Peng, Yishen Wang, Xiao Lu et al.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Compared with the substation or city level loads, individual loads are typically more volatile and much more challenging to forecast. To further address this issue, this paper first discusses the characteristics of small-and-medium enterprise (SME) and residential loads at different aggregation levels and quantifies their predictability with approximate entropy. Various STLF techniques, from the conventional linear regression to state-of-the-art deep learning, are implemented for a detailed comparative analysis to verify the forecasting performances as well as the predictability using an Irish smart meter dataset. In addition, the paper also investigates how using data processing improves individual-level residential load forecasting with low predictability. Effectiveness of the discussed method is validated with numerical results.

Yishen Wang, Xiao Lu, Yiran Xu et al.

Traditional load analysis is facing challenges with the new electricity usage patterns due to demand response as well as increasing deployment of distributed generations, including photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EV), and energy storage systems (ESS). At the transmission system, despite of irregular load behaviors at different areas, highly aggregated load shapes still share similar characteristics. Load clustering is to discover such intrinsic patterns and provide useful information to other load applications, such as load forecasting and load modeling. This paper proposes an efficient submodular load clustering method for transmission-level load areas. Robust principal component analysis (R-PCA) firstly decomposes the annual load profiles into low-rank components and sparse components to extract key features. A novel submodular cluster center selection technique is then applied to determine the optimal cluster centers through constructed similarity graph. Following the selection results, load areas are efficiently assigned to different clusters for further load analysis and applications. Numerical results obtained from PJM load demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Xiao Lu, Di Shi, Bin Zhu et al.

An online PMU-assisted Power System Parameter Calibration System (PSPCS) was recently developed and implemented at State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company (JEPC). PSPCS leverages high-resolution PMU data and data mining techniques to perform online screening of the EMS and Production Management System (PMS) databases for data cleaning, model validation, and parameter calibration. PSPCS calculates transmission line and generator parameters on a regular real-time basis and compares the results with databases to identify record(s) with significant discrepancy, if any. Once consistent discrepancy is observed, the system will raise a flag and further investigation will be initiated, including a novel density-based spatial clustering procedure for parameter/data calibration. A novel metric is proposed to quantify the credibility of PMU-based parameter identification. This paper discusses the proposed methodologies, challenges, as well as implementation issues identified during the development and deployment of PSPCS.