Michael Tiemann

Katharina Ensinger, Sebastian Ziesche, Barbara Rakitsch et al.

Modeling an unknown dynamical system is crucial in order to predict the future behavior of the system. A standard approach is training recurrent models on measurement data. While these models typically provide exact short-term predictions, accumulating errors yield deteriorated long-term behavior. In contrast, models with reliable long-term predictions can often be obtained, either by training a robust but less detailed model, or by leveraging physics-based simulations. In both cases, inaccuracies in the models yield a lack of short-time details. Thus, different models with contrastive properties on different time horizons are available. This observation immediately raises the question: Can we obtain predictions that combine the best of both worlds? Inspired by sensor fusion tasks, we interpret the problem in the frequency domain and leverage classical methods from signal processing, in particular complementary filters. This filtering technique combines two signals by applying a high-pass filter to one signal, and low-pass filtering the other. Essentially, the high-pass filter extracts high-frequencies, whereas the low-pass filter extracts low frequencies. Applying this concept to dynamics model learning enables the construction of models that yield accurate long- and short-term predictions. Here, we propose two methods, one being purely learning-based and the other one being a hybrid model that requires an additional physics-based simulator.

Katharina Ott, Michael Tiemann, Philipp Hennig

Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are an emerging class of deep learning models for dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for learning an ODE vector field from observed trajectories (i.e., inverse problems). We here consider aspects of these models relevant for their application in science and engineering. Scientific predictions generally require structured uncertainty estimates. As a first contribution, we show that basic and lightweight Bayesian deep learning techniques like the Laplace approximation can be applied to neural ODEs to yield structured and meaningful uncertainty quantification. But, in the scientific domain, available information often goes beyond raw trajectories, and also includes mechanistic knowledge, e.g., in the form of conservation laws. We explore how mechanistic knowledge and uncertainty quantification interact on two recently proposed neural ODE frameworks - symplectic neural ODEs and physical models augmented with neural ODEs. In particular, uncertainty reflects the effect of mechanistic information more directly than the predictive power of the trained model could. And vice versa, structure can improve the extrapolation abilities of neural ODEs, a fact that can be best assessed in practice through uncertainty estimates. Our experimental analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the Laplace approach on both low dimensional ODE problems and a high dimensional partial differential equation.

Katharina Ott, Michael Tiemann, Philipp Hennig et al.

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods for numerical integration offer significant advantages over their non-Bayesian counterparts: they can encode prior information about the integrand, and can quantify uncertainty over estimates of an integral. However, the most popular algorithm in this class, Bayesian quadrature, is based on Gaussian process models and is therefore associated with a high computational cost. To improve scalability, we propose an alternative approach based on Bayesian neural networks which we call Bayesian Stein networks. The key ingredients are a neural network architecture based on Stein operators, and an approximation of the Bayesian posterior based on the Laplace approximation. We show that this leads to orders of magnitude speed-ups on the popular Genz functions benchmark, and on challenging problems arising in the Bayesian analysis of dynamical systems, and the prediction of energy production for a large-scale wind farm.

Katharina Ensinger, Friedrich Solowjow, Sebastian Ziesche et al.

Most physical processes posses structural properties such as constant energies, volumes, and other invariants over time. When learning models of such dynamical systems, it is critical to respect these invariants to ensure accurate predictions and physically meaningful behavior. Strikingly, state-of-the-art methods in Gaussian process (GP) dynamics model learning are not addressing this issue. On the other hand, classical numerical integrators are specifically designed to preserve these crucial properties through time. We propose to combine the advantages of GPs as function approximators with structure preserving numerical integrators for dynamical systems, such as Runge-Kutta methods. These integrators assume access to the ground truth dynamics and require evaluations of intermediate and future time steps that are unknown in a learning-based scenario. This makes direct inference of the GP dynamics, with embedded numerical scheme, intractable. Our key technical contribution is the evaluation of the implicitly defined Runge-Kutta transition probability. In a nutshell, we introduce an implicit layer for GP regression, which is embedded into a variational inference-based model learning scheme.