Manuel Noseda

Manuel Noseda, Nathan Soldati, Marco Paina

Predicting stock price movements during Earnings Announcements (EAs) is a significant challenge due to market noise and high-impact price discontinuities. In this study, we evaluate whether pre-announcement news sentiment, firm fundamentals, and recent market dynamics jointly predict the directional price movement of equities on EA days. We construct a multi-modal feature space combining 15 fundamental metrics, 3 price-based technical indicators and sentiment scores derived from financial news articles processed using FinBERT. We compare a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and a Transformer-based architecture against a logistic regression baseline, and further assess all models with and without sentiment features to quantify their incremental value. Our results indicate that while the LSTM demonstrates higher precision through a conservative safe-bet strategy, the Transformer model exhibits superior sensitivity in identifying volatile movements, achieving a higher macro F1-score, with ablation experiments showing a consistent benefit from incorporating news sentiment.

Manuel Noseda, Alberto De Luca, Lukas Von Briel et al.

This paper studies Federated Learning (FL) for binary classification of volatile financial market trends. Using a shared Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) classifier, we compare three scenarios: (i) a centralized model trained on the union of all data, (ii) a single-agent model trained on an individual data subset, and (iii) a privacy-preserving FL collaboration in which agents exchange only model updates, never raw data. We then extend the study with additional market features, deliberately introducing not independent and identically distributed data (non-IID) across agents, personalized FL and employing differential privacy. Our numerical experiments show that FL achieves accuracy and generalization on par with the centralized baseline, while significantly outperforming the single-agent model. The results show that collaborative, privacy-preserving learning provides collective tangible value in finance, even under realistic data heterogeneity and personalization requirements.