Xiaoyin Xi

Pranam Prakash Shetty, Adarsh Balakrishnan, Mengqiao Xu et al.

This study investigates the use of large language models (LLMs) for story point estimation. Story points are unitless, project-specific effort estimates that help developers on the scrum team forecast which product backlog items they plan to complete in a sprint. To facilitate this process, machine learning models, especially deep neural networks, have been applied to predict the story points based on the title and description of each item. However, such machine learning models require sufficient amounts of training data (with ground truth story points annotated by human developers) from the same software project to achieve decent prediction performance. This motivated us to explore whether LLMs are capable of (RQ1) predicting story points without training data or (RQ2) with only a few training data points. Our empirical results with four LLMs on 16 software projects show that, without any training data (zero-shot prompting), LLMs can predict story points better than supervised deep learning models trained on 80% of the data. The prediction performance of LLMs can be further improved with a few training examples (few-shot prompting). In addition, a recent study explored the use of comparative judgments (between a given pair of items which one requires more effort to implement) instead of directly annotating the story points to reduce the cognitive burden on developers. Therefore, this study also explores (RQ3) whether comparative judgments are easier to predict than story points for LLMs and (RQ4) whether comparative judgments can serve as few-shot examples for LLMs to improve their predictions of story points. Empirical results suggest that it is not easier for LLMs to predict comparative judgments than to directly estimate the story points, but comparative judgments can serve as few-shot examples to improve the LLMs' prediction performance as well as the human-annotated story points.

Xiaoyin Xi, Zhe Yu

There has been a prevalence of applying AI software in both high-stakes public-sector and industrial contexts. However, the lack of transparency has raised concerns about whether these data-informed AI software decisions secure fairness against people of all racial, gender, or age groups. Despite extensive research on emerging fairness-aware AI software, up to now most efforts to solve this issue have been dedicated to binary classification tasks. Fairness in regression is relatively underexplored. In this work, we adopted a mutual information-based metric to assess separation violations. The metric is also extended so that it can be directly applied to both classification and regression problems with both binary and continuous sensitive attributes. Inspired by the Reweighing algorithm in fair classification, we proposed a FairReweighing pre-processing algorithm based on density estimation to ensure that the learned model satisfies the separation criterion. Theoretically, we show that the proposed FairReweighing algorithm can guarantee separation in the training data under a data independence assumption. Empirically, on both synthetic and real-world data, we show that FairReweighing outperforms existing state-of-the-art regression fairness solutions in terms of improving separation while maintaining high accuracy.

Monoshiz Mahbub Khan, Xiaoyin Xi, Andrew Meneely et al.

Story point estimation is an essential part of agile software development. Story points are unitless, project-specific effort estimates that help developers plan their sprints. Traditionally, developers estimate story points collaboratively using planning poker or other manual techniques. While the initial calibrating of the estimates to each project is helpful, once a team has converged on a set of precedents, story point estimation can become tedious and labor-intensive. Machine learning can reduce this burden, but only with enough context from the historical decisions made by the project team. That is, state-of-the-art models, such as GPT2SP and FastText-SVM, only make accurate predictions (within-project) when trained on data from the same project. The goal of this work is to streamline story point estimation by evaluating a comparative learning-based framework for calibrating project-specific story point prediction models. Instead of assigning a specific story point value to every backlog item, developers are presented with pairs of items, and indicate which item requires more effort. Using these comparative judgments, a machine learning model is trained to predict the story point estimates. We empirically evaluated our technique using data with 23,313 manual estimates in 16 projects. The model learned from comparative judgments can achieve on average 0.34 Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between its predictions and the ground truth story points. This is similar to, if not better than, the performance of a regression model learned from the ground truth story points. Therefore, the proposed comparative learning approach is more efficient than state-of-the-art regression-based approaches according to the law of comparative judgments - providing comparative judgments yields a lower cognitive burden on humans than providing ratings or categorical labels.

Zhe Yu, Xiaoyin Xi

With AI systems widely applied to assist human in decision-making processes such as talent hiring, school admission, and loan approval; there is an increasing need to ensure that the decisions made are fair. One major challenge for analyzing fairness in decisions is that the standards are highly subjective and contextual -- there is no consensus for what absolute fairness means for every scenario. Not to say that different fairness standards often conflict with each other. To bypass this issue, this work aims to test relative fairness in decisions. That is, instead of defining what are ``absolutely'' fair decisions, we propose to test the relative fairness of one decision set against another with differential parity -- the difference between two sets of decisions should be independent from a certain sensitive attribute. This proposed differential parity fairness notion has the following benefits: (1) it avoids the ambiguous and contradictory definition of ``absolutely'' fair decisions; (2) it reveals the relative preference and bias between two decision sets; (3) differential parity can serve as a new group fairness notion when a reference set of decisions (ground truths) is provided. One limitation for differential parity is that, it requires the two sets of decisions under comparison to be made on the same data subjects. To overcome this limitation, we propose to utilize a machine learning model to bridge the gap between the two decisions sets made on difference data and estimate the differential parity.