Kevin H. Wilson

Adam Bayley, Xiaodan Zhu, Raquel Aoki et al.

The recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers new opportunities to generate user preference data to warm-start bandits. Recent studies on contextual bandits with LLM initialization (CBLI) have shown that these synthetic priors can significantly lower early regret. However, these findings assume that LLM-generated choices are reasonably aligned with actual user preferences. In this paper, we systematically examine how LLM-generated preferences perform when random and label-flipping noise is injected into the synthetic training data. For aligned domains, we find that warm-starting remains effective up to 30% corruption, loses its advantage around 40%, and degrades performance beyond 50%. When there is systematic misalignment, even without added noise, LLM-generated priors can lead to higher regret than a cold-start bandit. To explain these behaviors, we develop a theoretical analysis that decomposes the effect of random label noise and systematic misalignment on the prior error driving the bandit's regret, and derive a sufficient condition under which LLM-based warm starts are provably better than a cold-start bandit. We validate these results across multiple conjoint datasets and LLMs, showing that estimated alignment reliably tracks when warm-starting improves or degrades recommendation quality.

Kevin H. Wilson, Yan Karklin, Bojian Han et al.

Estimating student proficiency is an important task for computer based learning systems. We compare a family of IRT-based proficiency estimation methods to Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT), a recently proposed recurrent neural network model with promising initial results. We evaluate how well each model predicts a student's future response given previous responses using two publicly available and one proprietary data set. We find that IRT-based methods consistently matched or outperformed DKT across all data sets at the finest level of content granularity that was tractable for them to be trained on. A hierarchical extension of IRT that captured item grouping structure performed best overall. When data sets included non-trivial autocorrelations in student response patterns, a temporal extension of IRT improved performance over standard IRT while the RNN-based method did not. We conclude that IRT-based models provide a simpler, better-performing alternative to existing RNN-based models of student interaction data while also affording more interpretability and guarantees due to their formulation as Bayesian probabilistic models.