Erin Zaroukian

Derrik E. Asher, Anjon Basak, Rolando Fernandez et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches can illuminate emergent behaviors that facilitate coordination across teams of agents as part of a multi-agent system (MAS), which can provide windows of opportunity in various military tasks. Technologically advancing adversaries pose substantial risks to a friendly nation's interests and resources. Superior resources alone are not enough to defeat adversaries in modern complex environments because adversaries create standoff in multiple domains against predictable military doctrine-based maneuvers. Therefore, as part of a defense strategy, friendly forces must use strategic maneuvers and disruption to gain superiority in complex multi-faceted domains such as multi-domain operations (MDO). One promising avenue for implementing strategic maneuver and disruption to gain superiority over adversaries is through coordination of MAS in future military operations. In this paper, we present overviews of prominent works in the RL domain with their strengths and weaknesses for overcoming the challenges associated with performing autonomous strategic maneuver and disruption in military contexts.

Piyush K. Sharma, Erin Zaroukian, Derrik E. Asher et al.

Only limited studies and superficial evaluations are available on agents' behaviors and roles within a Multi-Agent System (MAS). We simulate a MAS using Reinforcement Learning (RL) in a pursuit-evasion (a.k.a predator-prey pursuit) game, which shares task goals with target acquisition, and we create different adversarial scenarios by replacing RL-trained pursuers' policies with two distinct (non-RL) analytical strategies. Using heatmaps of agents' positions (state-space variable) over time, we are able to categorize an RL-trained evader's behaviors. The novelty of our approach entails the creation of an influential feature set that reveals underlying data regularities, which allow us to classify an agent's behavior. This classification may aid in catching the (enemy) targets by enabling us to identify and predict their behaviors, and when extended to pursuers, this approach towards identifying teammates' behavior may allow agents to coordinate more effectively.

Jonathan Z. Bakdash, Steve Hutchinson, Erin G. Zaroukian et al.

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.