Abhinav Prakash Gahlot

Ziyi Yin, Huseyin Tuna Erdinc, Abhinav Prakash Gahlot et al.

Geological carbon storage represents one of the few truly scalable technologies capable of reducing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While this technology has the potential to scale, its success hinges on our ability to mitigate its risks. An important aspect of risk mitigation concerns assurances that the injected CO2 remains within the storage complex. Amongst the different monitoring modalities, seismic imaging stands out with its ability to attain high resolution and high fidelity images. However, these superior features come, unfortunately, at prohibitive costs and time-intensive efforts potentially rendering extensive seismic monitoring undesirable. To overcome this shortcoming, we present a methodology where time-lapse images are created by inverting non-replicated time-lapse monitoring data jointly. By no longer insisting on replication of the surveys to obtain high fidelity time-lapse images and differences, extreme costs and time-consuming labor are averted. To demonstrate our approach, hundreds of noisy time-lapse seismic datasets are simulated that contain imprints of regular CO2 plumes and irregular plumes that leak. These time-lapse datasets are subsequently inverted to produce time-lapse difference images used to train a deep neural classifier. The testing results show that the classifier is capable of detecting CO2 leakage automatically on unseen data and with a reasonable accuracy.

Huseyin Tuna Erdinc, Abhinav Prakash Gahlot, Ziyi Yin et al.

With the growing global deployment of carbon capture and sequestration technology to combat climate change, monitoring and detection of potential CO2 leakage through existing or storage induced faults are critical to the safe and long-term viability of the technology. Recent work on time-lapse seismic monitoring of CO2 storage has shown promising results in its ability to monitor the growth of the CO2 plume from surface recorded seismic data. However, due to the low sensitivity of seismic imaging to CO2 concentration, additional developments are required to efficiently interpret the seismic images for leakage. In this work, we introduce a binary classification of time-lapse seismic images to delineate CO2 plumes (leakage) using state-of-the-art deep learning models. Additionally, we localize the leakage region of CO2 plumes by leveraging Class Activation Mapping methods.

Abhinav Prakash Gahlot, Huseyin Tuna Erdinc, Rafael Orozco et al.

As the global deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology intensifies in the fight against climate change, it becomes increasingly imperative to establish robust monitoring and detection mechanisms for potential underground CO2 leakage, particularly through pre-existing or induced faults in the storage reservoir's seals. While techniques such as history matching and time-lapse seismic monitoring of CO2 storage have been used successfully in tracking the evolution of CO2 plumes in the subsurface, these methods lack principled approaches to characterize uncertainties related to the CO2 plumes' behavior. Inclusion of systematic assessment of uncertainties is essential for risk mitigation for the following reasons: (i) CO2 plume-induced changes are small and seismic data is noisy; (ii) changes between regular and irregular (e.g., caused by leakage) flow patterns are small; and (iii) the reservoir properties that control the flow are strongly heterogeneous and typically only available as distributions. To arrive at a formulation capable of inferring flow patterns for regular and irregular flow from well and seismic data, the performance of conditional normalizing flow will be analyzed on a series of carefully designed numerical experiments. While the inferences presented are preliminary in the context of an early CO2 leakage detection system, the results do indicate that inferences with conditional normalizing flows can produce high-fidelity estimates for CO2 plumes with or without leakage. We are also confident that the inferred uncertainty is reasonable because it correlates well with the observed errors. This uncertainty stems from noise in the seismic data and from the lack of precise knowledge of the reservoir's fluid flow properties.

Abhinav Prakash Gahlot, Felix J. Herrmann

To meet climate targets, the IPCC underscores the necessity of technologies capable of removing gigatonnes of CO2 annually, with Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) playing a central role. GCS involves capturing CO2 and injecting it into deep geological formations for long-term storage, requiring precise monitoring to ensure containment and prevent leakage. Time-lapse seismic imaging is essential for tracking CO2 migration but often struggles to capture the complexities of multi-phase subsurface flow. Digital Shadows (DS), leveraging machine learning-driven data assimilation techniques such as nonlinear Bayesian filtering and generative AI, provide a more detailed, uncertainty-aware monitoring approach. By incorporating uncertainties in reservoir properties, DS frameworks improve CO2 migration forecasts, reducing risks in GCS operations. However, data assimilation depends on assumptions regarding reservoir properties, rock physics models, and initial conditions, which, if inaccurate, can compromise prediction reliability. This study demonstrates that augmenting forecast ensembles with diverse rock physics models mitigates the impact of incorrect assumptions and improves predictive accuracy, particularly in differentiating uniform versus patchy saturation models.

Abhinav Prakash Gahlot, Rafael Orozco, Felix J. Herrmann

Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) is a key technology for achieving global climate goals by capturing and storing CO2 in deep geological formations. Its effectiveness and safety rely on accurate monitoring of subsurface CO2 migration using advanced time-lapse seismic imaging. A Digital Shadow framework integrates field data, including seismic and borehole measurements, to track CO2 saturation over time. Machine learning-assisted data assimilation techniques, such as generative AI and nonlinear ensemble Bayesian filtering, update a digital model of the CO2 plume while incorporating uncertainties in reservoir properties. Compared to 2D approaches, 3D monitoring enhances the spatial accuracy of GCS assessments, capturing the full extent of CO2 migration. This study extends the uncertainty-aware 2D Digital Shadow framework by incorporating 3D seismic imaging and reservoir modeling, improving decision-making and risk mitigation in CO2 storage projects.

Jeongjin, Park, Grant Bruer et al.

Neural operators have emerged as cost-effective surrogates for expensive fluid-flow simulators, particularly in computationally intensive tasks such as permeability inversion from time-lapse seismic data, and uncertainty quantification. In these applications, the fidelity of the surrogate's gradients with respect to system parameters is crucial, as the accuracy of downstream tasks, such as optimization and Bayesian inference, relies directly on the quality of the derivative information. Recent advances in physics-informed methods have leveraged derivative information to improve surrogate accuracy. However, incorporating explicit Jacobians can become computationally prohibitive, as the complexity typically scales quadratically with the number of input parameters. To address this limitation, we propose DeFINO (Derivative-based Fisher-score Informed Neural Operator), a reduced-order, derivative-informed training framework. DeFINO integrates Fourier neural operators (FNOs) with a novel derivative-based training strategy guided by the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). By projecting Jacobians onto dominant eigen-directions identified by the FIM, DeFINO captures critical sensitivity information directly informed by observational data, significantly reducing computational expense. We validate DeFINO through synthetic experiments in the context of subsurface multi-phase fluid-flow, demonstrating improvements in gradient accuracy while maintaining robust forward predictions of underlying fluid dynamics. These results highlight DeFINO's potential to offer practical, scalable solutions for inversion problems in complex real-world scenarios, all at substantially reduced computational cost.

Huseyin Tuna Erdinc, Yunlin Zeng, Abhinav Prakash Gahlot et al.

We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining for different power-scaling configurations. Specifically, we focus on synthesizing seismic velocity models conditioned on imaged seismic. Our method enables sensitivity analysis by sampling from intermediate power posteriors, allowing us to assess the relative influence of the prior and likelihood on samples of the posterior distribution. Through a comprehensive set of experiments, we evaluate the effects of varying the power parameter in different settings: applying it solely to the prior, to the likelihood of a Bayesian formulation, and to both simultaneously. The results show that increasing the power of the likelihood up to a certain threshold improves the fidelity of posterior samples to the conditioning data (e.g., seismic images), while decreasing the prior power promotes greater structural diversity among samples. Moreover, we find that moderate scaling of the likelihood leads to a reduced shot data residual, confirming its utility in posterior refinement.

Shiqin Zeng, Haoyun Li, Abhinav Prakash Gahlot et al.

This study investigates the use of score-based generative models for reservoir simulation, with a focus on reconstructing spatially varying permeability and saturation fields in saline aquifers, inferred from sparse observations at two well locations. By modeling the joint distribution of permeability and saturation derived from high-fidelity reservoir simulations, the proposed neural network is trained to learn the complex spatiotemporal dynamics governing multiphase fluid flow in porous media. During inference, the framework effectively reconstructs both permeability and saturation fields by conditioning on sparse vertical profiles extracted from well log data. This approach introduces a novel methodology for incorporating physical constraints and well log guidance into generative models, significantly enhancing the accuracy and physical plausibility of the reconstructed subsurface states. Furthermore, the framework demonstrates strong generalization capabilities across varying geological scenarios, highlighting its potential for practical deployment in data-scarce reservoir management tasks.

Zijun Deng, Rafael Orozco, Abhinav Prakash Gahlot et al.

Reducing CO$_2$ emissions is crucial to mitigating climate change. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the few technologies capable of achieving net-negative CO$_2$ emissions. However, predicting fluid flow patterns in CCS remains challenging due to uncertainties in CO$_2$ plume dynamics and reservoir properties. Building on existing seismic imaging methods like the Joint Recovery Method (JRM), which lacks uncertainty quantification, we propose the Probabilistic Joint Recovery Method (pJRM). By estimating posterior distributions across surveys using a shared generative model, pJRM provides uncertainty information to improve risk assessment in CCS projects.