Gabriel Victorino Cardoso

Tony Lelièvre, Geneviève Robin, Inass Sekkat et al.

Molecular systems often remain trapped for long times around some local minimum of the potential energy function, before switching to another one -- a behavior known as metastability. Simulating transition paths linking one metastable state to another one is difficult by direct numerical methods. In view of the promises of machine learning techniques, we explore in this work two approaches to more efficiently generate transition paths: sampling methods based on generative models such as variational autoencoders, and importance sampling methods based on reinforcement learning.

Stanislas Strasman, Gabriel Victorino Cardoso, Sylvain Le Corff et al.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a natural tool for post-hoc conditioning of pretrained generative models, but in many applications the mutation kernels used by the particle system are biased approximations of an ideal Feynman--Kac flow. This paper develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for such SMC samplers. Under forward-smoothing forgetting conditions, we decompose the total error into a kernel bias, measuring the effect of replacing the ideal transition kernels by approximate ones, and a finite-particle Monte Carlo error. Our approach relies on extending local Doeblin-type conditions and Lyapunov drift arguments for Markov kernels to conditional distributions, thereby enabling a principled control of the bias. We then instantiate this general framework for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models, and derive the first non-asymptotic error bound that jointly controls initialization error, time discretization, and score approximation in the reverse diffusion dynamics as well as finite-particle Monte Carlo error.

Julia Linhart, Gabriel Victorino Cardoso, Alexandre Gramfort et al.

Determining which parameters of a non-linear model best describe a set of experimental data is a fundamental problem in science and it has gained much traction lately with the rise of complex large-scale simulators. The likelihood of such models is typically intractable, which is why classical MCMC methods can not be used. Simulation-based inference (SBI) stands out in this context by only requiring a dataset of simulations to train deep generative models capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation. In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available to better infer the parameters of the model. The proposed method is built upon recent developments from the flourishing score-based diffusion literature and allows to estimate the tall data posterior distribution, while simply using information from a score network trained for a single context observation. We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.

Camille Touron, Gabriel V. Cardoso, Julyan Arbel et al.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) has become a widely used framework in applied sciences for estimating the parameters of stochastic models that best explain experimental observations. A central question in this setting is how to effectively combine multiple observations in order to improve parameter inference and obtain sharper posterior distributions. Recent advances in score-based diffusion methods address this problem by constructing a compositional score, obtained by aggregating individual posterior scores within the diffusion process. While it is natural to suspect that the accumulation of individual errors may significantly degrade sampling quality as the number of observations grows, this important theoretical issue has so far remained unexplored. In this paper, we study the compositional score produced by the GAUSS algorithm of Linhart et al. (2024) and establish an upper bound on its mean squared error in terms of both the individual score errors and the number of observations. We illustrate our theoretical findings on a Gaussian example, where all analytical expressions can be derived in a closed form.

Gabriel V Cardoso, Mike Pereira

Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible framework to predict spatially distributed variables with uncertainty. But the use of nonstationary priors, often necessary for capturing complex spatial patterns, makes sampling from the predictive posterior distribution (PPD) computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a two-step approach based on diffusion generative models (DGMs) to mimic PPDs associated with non-stationary GP priors: we replace the GP prior by a DGM surrogate, and leverage recent advances on training-free guidance algorithms for DGMs to sample from the desired posterior distribution. We apply our approach to a rich non-stationary GP prior from which exact posterior sampling is untractable and validate that the issuing distributions are close to their GP counterpart using several statistical metrics. We also demonstrate how one can fine-tune the trained DGMs to target specific parts of the GP prior. Finally we apply the proposed approach to solve inverse problems arising in environmental sciences, thus yielding state-of-the-art predictions.