Nino Scherrer

Johannes von Oswald, Maximilian Schlegel, Alexander Meulemans et al. · deepmind

Some autoregressive models exhibit in-context learning capabilities: being able to learn as an input sequence is processed, without undergoing any parameter changes, and without being explicitly trained to do so. The origins of this phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here we analyze a series of Transformer models trained to perform synthetic sequence prediction tasks, and discover that standard next-token prediction error minimization gives rise to a subsidiary learning algorithm that adjusts the model as new inputs are revealed. We show that this process corresponds to gradient-based optimization of a principled objective function, which leads to strong generalization performance on unseen sequences. Our findings explain in-context learning as a product of autoregressive loss minimization and inform the design of new optimization-based Transformer layers.

Maty Bohacek, Nino Scherrer, Nicholas Dufour et al. · stanford

The evaluation of large language models relies heavily on standardized benchmarks. These benchmarks provide useful aggregated metrics, but can obscure (i) particular sub-areas where the models are weak ("model gaps") and (ii) imbalanced coverage in the benchmarks themselves ("benchmark gaps"). To automatically uncover both types of gaps, we propose a simple new method using concept activations from sparse autoencoders, to identify fine-grained gaps on a per-concept basis. The method also benefits from grounding evaluation in the model's internal representations, as well as easy comparison across benchmarks. We applied the method to five popular open-source models and more than a dozen benchmarks, as illustrative examples. As validation of the approach, we found that our automatic, unsupervised method was able to recover model gaps that have been previously documented in the literature (e.g. relating to sycophancy), in addition to identifying novel model gaps. We were also able to automatically uncover benchmark gaps: core concepts that should fall within the scope of a given benchmark. Our "competency gaps" method can be used to complement existing benchmarks, by providing a concept-level decomposition of model behavior, and by helping benchmark developers iterate upon benchmark design. Code is available at https://competency-gaps.github.io.

Nino Scherrer, Anirudh Goyal, Stefan Bauer et al. · mila

Learning models that offer robust out-of-distribution generalization and fast adaptation is a key challenge in modern machine learning. Modelling causal structure into neural networks holds the promise to accomplish robust zero and few-shot adaptation. Recent advances in differentiable causal discovery have proposed to factorize the data generating process into a set of modules, i.e. one module for the conditional distribution of every variable where only causal parents are used as predictors. Such a modular decomposition of knowledge enables adaptation to distributions shifts by only updating a subset of parameters. In this work, we systematically study the generalization and adaption performance of such modular neural causal models by comparing it to monolithic models and structured models where the set of predictors is not constrained to causal parents. Our analysis shows that the modular neural causal models outperform other models on both zero and few-shot adaptation in low data regimes and offer robust generalization. We also found that the effects are more significant for sparser graphs as compared to denser graphs.

Amin Abyaneh, Nino Scherrer, Patrick Schwab et al.

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is limited, primarily for privacy and regulatory constraints. However, the majority of existing causal discovery methods require the data to be available in a centralized location. In response, researchers have introduced federated causal discovery. While previous federated methods consider distributed observational data, the integration of interventional data remains largely unexplored. We propose FedCDI, a federated framework for inferring causal structures from distributed data containing interventional samples. In line with the federated learning framework, FedCDI improves privacy by exchanging belief updates rather than raw samples. Additionally, it introduces a novel intervention-aware method for aggregating individual updates. We analyze scenarios with shared or disjoint intervened covariates, and mitigate the adverse effects of interventional data heterogeneity. The performance and scalability of FedCDI is rigorously tested across a variety of synthetic and real-world graphs.

Mateusz Olko, Michał Zając, Aleksandra Nowak et al.

Inferring causal structure from data is a challenging task of fundamental importance in science. Observational data are often insufficient to identify a system's causal structure uniquely. While conducting interventions (i.e., experiments) can improve the identifiability, such samples are usually challenging and expensive to obtain. Hence, experimental design approaches for causal discovery aim to minimize the number of interventions by estimating the most informative intervention target. In this work, we propose a novel Gradient-based Intervention Targeting method, abbreviated GIT, that 'trusts' the gradient estimator of a gradient-based causal discovery framework to provide signals for the intervention acquisition function. We provide extensive experiments in simulated and real-world datasets and demonstrate that GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in the low-data regime.

Johannes von Oswald, Nino Scherrer, Seijin Kobayashi et al. · deepmind

Sequence modeling is currently dominated by causal transformer architectures that use softmax self-attention. Although widely adopted, transformers require scaling memory and compute linearly during inference. A recent stream of work linearized the softmax operation, resulting in powerful recurrent neural network (RNN) models with constant memory and compute costs such as DeltaNet, Mamba or xLSTM. These models can be unified by noting that their recurrent layer dynamics can all be derived from an in-context regression objective, approximately optimized through an online learning rule. Here, we join this line of work and introduce a numerically stable, chunkwise parallelizable version of the recently proposed Mesa layer (von Oswald et al., 2024), and study it in language modeling at the billion-parameter scale. This layer again stems from an in-context loss, but which is now minimized to optimality at every time point using a fast conjugate gradient solver. Through an extensive suite of experiments, we show that optimal test-time training enables reaching lower language modeling perplexity and higher downstream benchmark performance than previous RNNs, especially on tasks requiring long context understanding. This performance gain comes at the cost of additional flops spent during inference time. Our results are therefore intriguingly related to recent trends of increasing test-time compute to improve performance -- here by spending compute to solve sequential optimization problems within the neural network itself.

Tanya Rodchenko, Natasha Noy, Nino Scherrer

While Large Language Models require more and more data to train and scale, rather than looking for any data to acquire, we should consider what types of tasks are more likely to benefit from data scaling. We should be intentional in our data acquisition. We argue that the shape of the data itself, such as its compositional and structural patterns, informs which tasks to prioritize in data scaling, and shapes the development of the next generation of compute paradigms for tasks where data scaling is inefficient, or even insufficient.

Souradip Chakraborty, Mohammadreza Pourreza, Ruoxi Sun et al.

Agentic AI workflows (systems that autonomously plan and act) are becoming widespread, yet their task success rate on complex tasks remains low. A promising solution is inference-time alignment, which uses extra compute at test time to improve performance. Inference-time alignment relies on three components: sampling, evaluation, and feedback. While most prior work studies sampling and automatic evaluation, feedback remains underexplored. To study the role of feedback, we introduce Iterative Agent Decoding (IAD), a procedure that repeatedly inserts feedback extracted from different forms of critiques (reward models or AI-generated textual feedback) between decoding steps. Through IAD, we analyze feedback along four dimensions: (1) its role in the accuracy-compute trade-offs with limited inference budget, (2) quantifying the gains over diversity-only baselines such as best-of-N sampling, (3) effectiveness of composing feedback from reward models versus textual critique, and (4) robustness to noisy or low-quality feedback. Across Sketch2Code, Text2SQL, Intercode, and WebShop, we show that IAD with proper integration of high fidelity feedback leads to consistent gains up to 10 percent absolute performance improvement over various baselines such as best-of-N. Our findings underscore feedback as a crucial knob for inference-time alignment of agentic AI workflows with limited inference budget.

Alexander Meulemans, Seijin Kobayashi, Johannes von Oswald et al.

Self-interested individuals often fail to cooperate, posing a fundamental challenge for multi-agent learning. How can we achieve cooperation among self-interested, independent learning agents? Promising recent work has shown that in certain tasks cooperation can be established between learning-aware agents who model the learning dynamics of each other. Here, we present the first unbiased, higher-derivative-free policy gradient algorithm for learning-aware reinforcement learning, which takes into account that other agents are themselves learning through trial and error based on multiple noisy trials. We then leverage efficient sequence models to condition behavior on long observation histories that contain traces of the learning dynamics of other agents. Training long-context policies with our algorithm leads to cooperative behavior and high returns on standard social dilemmas, including a challenging environment where temporally-extended action coordination is required. Finally, we derive from the iterated prisoner's dilemma a novel explanation for how and when cooperation arises among self-interested learning-aware agents.

Nino Scherrer, Olexa Bilaniuk, Yashas Annadani et al.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

Yashas Annadani, Jonas Rothfuss, Alexandre Lacoste et al.

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov equivalence class thereof. However, a crucial aspect to acting intelligently upon the knowledge about causal structure which has been inferred from finite data demands reasoning about its uncertainty. For instance, planning interventions to find out more about the causal mechanisms that govern our data requires quantifying epistemic uncertainty over DAGs. While Bayesian causal inference allows to do so, the posterior over DAGs becomes intractable even for a small number of variables. Aiming to overcome this issue, we propose a form of variational inference over the graphs of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). To this end, we introduce a parametric variational family modelled by an autoregressive distribution over the space of discrete DAGs. Its number of parameters does not grow exponentially with the number of variables and can be tractably learned by maximising an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). In our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed variational posterior is able to provide a good approximation of the true posterior.