Defu Cao

Defu Cao, James Enouen, Yujing Wang et al. · cmu

Causal analysis for time series data, in particular estimating individualized treatment effect (ITE), is a key task in many real-world applications, such as finance, retail, healthcare, etc. Real-world time series can include large-scale, irregular, and intermittent time series observations, raising significant challenges to existing work attempting to estimate treatment effects. Specifically, the existence of hidden confounders can lead to biased treatment estimates and complicate the causal inference process. In particular, anomaly hidden confounders which exceed the typical range can lead to high variance estimates. Moreover, in continuous time settings with irregular samples, it is challenging to directly handle the dynamics of causality. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in Lipschitz regularization and neural controlled differential equations (CDE) to develop an effective and scalable solution, namely LipCDE, to address the above challenges. LipCDE can directly model the dynamic causal relationships between historical data and outcomes with irregular samples by considering the boundary of hidden confounders given by Lipschitz-constrained neural networks. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of LipCDE.

Yizhou Zhang, Defu Cao, Yan Liu

Recent years have witnessed the rise of misinformation campaigns that spread specific narratives on social media to manipulate public opinions on different areas, such as politics and healthcare. Consequently, an effective and efficient automatic methodology to estimate the influence of the misinformation on user beliefs and activities is needed. However, existing works on misinformation impact estimation either rely on small-scale psychological experiments or can only discover the correlation between user behaviour and misinformation. To address these issues, in this paper, we build up a causal framework that model the causal effect of misinformation from the perspective of temporal point process. To adapt the large-scale data, we design an efficient yet precise way to estimate the Individual Treatment Effect(ITE) via neural temporal point process and gaussian mixture models. Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our model. We further apply our model on a real-world dataset of social media posts and engagements about COVID-19 vaccines. The experimental results indicate that our model recognized identifiable causal effect of misinformation that hurts people's subjective emotions toward the vaccines.

Defu Cao, Furong Jia, Sercan O Arik et al.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the design of prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in different types of time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on zero shot setting for a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets but also in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Yizhou Zhang, Loc Trinh, Defu Cao et al.

Recent years have witnessed the sustained evolution of misinformation that aims at manipulating public opinions. Unlike traditional rumors or fake news editors who mainly rely on generated and/or counterfeited images, text and videos, current misinformation creators now more tend to use out-of-context multimedia contents (e.g. mismatched images and captions) to deceive the public and fake news detection systems. This new type of misinformation increases the difficulty of not only detection but also clarification, because every individual modality is close enough to true information. To address this challenge, in this paper we explore how to achieve interpretable cross-modal de-contextualization detection that simultaneously identifies the mismatched pairs and the cross-modal contradictions, which is helpful for fact-check websites to document clarifications. The proposed model first symbolically disassembles the text-modality information to a set of fact queries based on the Abstract Meaning Representation of the caption and then forwards the query-image pairs into a pre-trained large vision-language model select the ``evidences" that are helpful for us to detect misinformation. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed methodology can provide us with much more interpretable predictions while maintaining the accuracy same as the state-of-the-art model on this task.

Defu Cao, Yousef El-Laham, Loc Trinh et al.

In electronic trading markets, limit order books (LOBs) provide information about pending buy/sell orders at various price levels for a given security. Recently, there has been a growing interest in using LOB data for resolving downstream machine learning tasks (e.g., forecasting). However, dealing with out-of-distribution (OOD) LOB data is challenging since distributional shifts are unlabeled in current publicly available LOB datasets. Therefore, it is critical to build a synthetic LOB dataset with labeled OOD samples serving as a testbed for developing models that generalize well to unseen scenarios. In this work, we utilize a multi-agent market simulator to build a synthetic LOB dataset, named DSLOB, with and without market stress scenarios, which allows for the design of controlled distributional shift benchmarking. Using the proposed synthetic dataset, we provide a holistic analysis on the forecasting performance of three different state-of-the-art forecasting methods. Our results reflect the need for increased researcher efforts to develop algorithms with robustness to distributional shifts in high-frequency time series data.

Defu Cao, James Enouen, Yan Liu

Estimating treatment effects plays a crucial role in causal inference, having many real-world applications like policy analysis and decision making. Nevertheless, estimating treatment effects in the longitudinal setting in the presence of hidden confounders remains an extremely challenging problem. Recently, there is a growing body of work attempting to obtain unbiased ITE estimates from time-dynamic observational data by ignoring the possible existence of hidden confounders. Additionally, many existing works handling hidden confounders are not applicable for continuous-time settings. In this paper, we extend the line of work focusing on deconfounding in the dynamic time setting in the presence of hidden confounders. We leverage recent advancements in neural differential equations to build a latent factor model using a stochastic controlled differential equation and Lipschitz constrained convolutional operation in order to continuously incorporate information about ongoing interventions and irregularly sampled observations. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets highlight the promise of continuous time methods for estimating treatment effects in the presence of hidden confounders.

Muyan Weng, Defu Cao, Wei Yang et al.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Xiongye Xiao, Defu Cao, Ruochen Yang et al.

Coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) are key tasks in modeling the complex dynamics of many physical processes. Recently, neural operators have shown the ability to solve PDEs by learning the integral kernel directly in Fourier/Wavelet space, so the difficulty for solving the coupled PDEs depends on dealing with the coupled mappings between the functions. Towards this end, we propose a \textit{coupled multiwavelets neural operator} (CMWNO) learning scheme by decoupling the coupled integral kernels during the multiwavelet decomposition and reconstruction procedures in the Wavelet space. The proposed model achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to previous learning-based solvers in solving the coupled PDEs including Gray-Scott (GS) equations and the non-local mean field game (MFG) problem. According to our experimental results, the proposed model exhibits a $2\times \sim 4\times$ improvement relative $L$2 error compared to the best results from the state-of-the-art models.

Defu Cao, Wen Ye, Yizhou Zhang et al.

Foundation models, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), have revolutionized text and video processing, yet time series data presents distinct challenges for such approaches due to domain-specific features such as missing values, multi-resolution characteristics, etc. Furthermore, the de-facto autoregressive transformers tend to learn deterministic temporal dependencies within pre-trained data while overlooking inherent uncertainties and lacking integration of physical constraints. In this paper, we introduce TimeDiT, a diffusion transformer model that synergistically combines transformer-based temporal dependency learning with diffusion-based probabilistic sampling. TimeDiT employs a unified masking mechanism to harmonize the training and inference process across diverse tasks while introducing a theoretically grounded, finetuning-free model editing strategy that enables flexible integration of external knowledge during sampling. Acknowledging the challenges of unifying multiple downstream tasks under a single model, our systematic evaluation demonstrates TimeDiT's effectiveness both in fundamental tasks, i.e., forecasting and imputation, through zero-shot/fine-tuning; and in domain tasks, i.e., multi-resolution forecasting, anomaly detection, and data generation, establishing it as a \textit{proto-foundation model} that bridges the gap between general-purpose and domain-specific models.

Wen Ye, Wei Yang, Defu Cao et al.

Time series analysis is crucial in real-world applications, yet traditional methods focus on isolated tasks only, and recent studies on time series reasoning remain limited to either single-step inference or are constrained to natural language answers. In this work, we introduce TS-Reasoner, a domain-specialized agent designed for multi-step time series inference. By integrating large language model (LLM) reasoning with domain-specific computational tools and an error feedback loop, TS-Reasoner enables domain-informed, constraint-aware analytical workflows that combine symbolic reasoning with precise numerical analysis. We assess the system's capabilities along two axes: (1) fundamental time series understanding assessed by TimeSeriesExam and (2) complex, multi-step inference evaluated by a newly proposed dataset designed to test both compositional reasoning and computational precision in time series analysis. Experiments show that our approach outperforms standalone general-purpose LLMs in both basic time series concept understanding as well as the multi-step time series inference task, highlighting the promise of domain-specialized agents for automating real-world time series reasoning and analysis.

Qiang Huang, Chuizheng Meng, Defu Cao et al.

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at reducing covariate disparities between different treatment groups serves as a universal solution. However, when it comes to the time series data, the effectiveness of balancing strategies remains an open question, with a thorough analysis of the robustness and applicability of balancing strategies still lacking. This paper revisits counterfactual estimation in the temporal setting and provides a brief overview of recent advancements in balancing strategies. More importantly, we conduct a critical empirical examination for the effectiveness of the balancing strategies within the realm of temporal counterfactual estimation in various settings on multiple datasets. Our findings could be of significant interest to researchers and practitioners and call for a reexamination of the balancing strategy in time series settings.

Defu Cao, Michael Gee, Jinbo Liu et al.

The proliferation of time series foundation models has created a landscape where no single method achieves consistent superiority, framing the central challenge not as finding the best model, but as orchestrating an optimal ensemble with interpretability. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer powerful reasoning capabilities, their direct application to time series forecasting has proven ineffective. We address this gap by repositioning the LLM as an intelligent judge that evaluates, explains, and strategically coordinates an ensemble of foundation models. To overcome the LLM's inherent lack of domain-specific knowledge on time series, we introduce an R1-style finetuning process, guided by SHAP-based faithfulness scores, which teaches the model to interpret ensemble weights as meaningful causal statements about temporal dynamics. The trained agent then engages in iterative, multi-turn conversations to perform forward-looking assessments, provide causally-grounded explanations for its weighting decisions, and adaptively refine the optimization strategy. Validated on the GIFT-Eval benchmark on 23 datasets across 97 settings, our approach significantly outperforms leading time series foundation models on both CRPS and MASE metrics, establishing new state-of-the-art results.

Xiongye Xiao, Gengshuo Liu, Gaurav Gupta et al.

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Distinct from most traditional fusion models that aim to incorporate all modalities as input, our model designates the prime modality as input, while the remaining modalities act as detectors in the information pathway. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of downstream tasks. Experimental evaluations on both the MUStARD and CMU-MOSI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks.

Jinbo Liu, Defu Cao, Yifei Wei et al.

Graph topology is a fundamental determinant of memory leakage in multi-agent LLM systems, yet its effects remain poorly quantified. We introduce MAMA (Multi-Agent Memory Attack), a framework that measures how network structure shapes leakage. MAMA operates on synthetic documents containing labeled Personally Identifiable Information (PII) entities, from which we generate sanitized task instructions. We execute a two-phase protocol: Engram (seeding private information into a target agent's memory) and Resonance (multi-round interaction where an attacker attempts extraction). Over 10 rounds, we measure leakage as exact-match recovery of ground-truth PII from attacker outputs. We evaluate six canonical topologies (complete, ring, chain, tree, star, star-ring) across $n\in\{4,5,6\}$, attacker-target placements, and base models. Results are consistent: denser connectivity, shorter attacker-target distance, and higher target centrality increase leakage; most leakage occurs in early rounds and then plateaus; model choice shifts absolute rates but preserves topology ordering; spatiotemporal/location attributes leak more readily than identity credentials or regulated identifiers. We distill practical guidance for system design: favor sparse or hierarchical connectivity, maximize attacker-target separation, and restrict hub/shortcut pathways via topology-aware access control.

Jiate Li, Defu Cao, Li Li et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have been serving as effective backbones for retrieval systems, including Retrieval-Augmentation-Generation (RAG), Dense Information Retriever (IR), and Agent Memory Retrieval. Recent studies have demonstrated that such LLM-based Retrieval (LLMR) is vulnerable to adversarial attacks, which manipulates documents by token-level injections and enables adversaries to either boost or diminish these documents in retrieval tasks. However, existing attack studies mainly (1) presume a known query is given to the attacker, and (2) highly rely on access to the victim model's parameters or interactions, which are hardly accessible in real-world scenarios, leading to limited validity. To further explore the secure risks of LLMR, we propose a practical black-box attack method that generates transferable injection tokens based on zero-shot surrogate LLMs without need of victim queries or victim models knowledge. The effectiveness of our attack raises such a robustness issue that similar effects may arise from benign or unintended document edits in the real world. To achieve our attack, we first establish a theoretical framework of LLMR and empirically verify it. Under the framework, we simulate the transferable attack as a min-max problem, and propose an adversarial learning mechanism that finds optimal adversarial tokens with learnable query samples. Our attack is validated to be effective on benchmark datasets across popular LLM retrievers.

Ching Chang, Yidan Shi, Defu Cao et al.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Wen Ye, Jinbo Liu, Defu Cao et al.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in their application to time series analysis tasks. However, their ability to perform complex reasoning over temporal data in real-world application domains remains underexplored. To move toward this goal, a first step is to establish a rigorous benchmark dataset for evaluation. In this work, we introduce the TSAIA Benchmark, a first attempt to evaluate LLMs as time-series AI assistants. To ensure both scientific rigor and practical relevance, we surveyed over 20 academic publications and identified 33 real-world task formulations. The benchmark encompasses a broad spectrum of challenges, ranging from constraint-aware forecasting to anomaly detection with threshold calibration: tasks that require compositional reasoning and multi-step time series analysis. The question generator is designed to be dynamic and extensible, supporting continuous expansion as new datasets or task types are introduced. Given the heterogeneous nature of the tasks, we adopt task-specific success criteria and tailored inference-quality metrics to ensure meaningful evaluation for each task. We apply this benchmark to assess eight state-of-the-art LLMs under a unified evaluation protocol. Our analysis reveals limitations in current models' ability to assemble complex time series analysis workflows, underscoring the need for specialized methodologies for domain-specific adaptation. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA, and the code is available at https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA.

Yuhao Xu, Xiaoda Wang, Jiaying Lu et al.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis plays a vital role in the early detection, monitoring, and management of various cardiovascular conditions. While existing models have achieved notable success in ECG interpretation, they fail to leverage the interrelated nature of various cardiac abnormalities. Conversely, developing a specific model capable of extracting all relevant features for multiple ECG tasks remains a significant challenge. Large-scale foundation models, though powerful, are not typically pretrained on ECG data, making full re-training or fine-tuning computationally expensive. To address these challenges, we propose EnECG(Mixture of Experts-based Ensemble Learning for ECG Multi-tasks), an ensemble-based framework that integrates multiple specialized foundation models, each excelling in different aspects of ECG interpretation. Instead of relying on a single model or single task, EnECG leverages the strengths of multiple specialized models to tackle a variety of ECG-based tasks. To mitigate the high computational cost of full re-training or fine-tuning, we introduce a lightweight adaptation strategy: attaching dedicated output layers to each foundation model and applying Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) only to these newly added parameters. We then adopt a Mixture of Experts (MoE) mechanism to learn ensemble weights, effectively combining the complementary expertise of individual models. Our experimental results demonstrate that by minimizing the scope of fine-tuning, EnECG can help reduce computational and memory costs while maintaining the strong representational power of foundation models. This framework not only enhances feature extraction and predictive performance but also ensures practical efficiency for real-world clinical applications. The code is available at https://github.com/yuhaoxu99/EnECG.git.

Yuhao Xu, Jiaying Lu, Sirui Ding et al.

In the process of patient diagnosis, non-invasive measurements are widely used due to their low risks and quick results. Electrocardiogram (ECG), as a non-invasive method to collect heart activities, is used to diagnose cardiac conditions. Analyzing the ECG typically requires domain expertise, which is a roadblock to applying artificial intelligence (AI) for healthcare. Through advances in self-supervised learning and foundation models, AI systems can now acquire and leverage domain knowledge without relying solely on human expertise. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analyses over the foundation models' performance on ECG. This study aims to answer the research question: "Are Foundation Models Useful for ECG Analysis?" To address it, we evaluate language/general time-series/ECG foundation models in comparison with time-series deep learning models. The experimental results show that general time-series/ECG foundation models achieve a top performance rate of 80%, indicating their effectiveness in ECG analysis. In-depth analyses and insights are provided along with comprehensive experimental results. This study highlights the limitations and potential of foundation models in advancing physiological waveform analysis. The data and code for this benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/yuhaoxu99/ECGMultitasks-Benchmark.

Tianjun Yao, Jiaqi Sun, Defu Cao et al.

Recent works have introduced GNN-to-MLP knowledge distillation (KD) frameworks to combine both GNN's superior performance and MLP's fast inference speed. However, existing KD frameworks are primarily designed for node classification within single graphs, leaving their applicability to graph classification largely unexplored. Two main challenges arise when extending KD for node classification to graph classification: (1) The inherent sparsity of learning signals due to soft labels being generated at the graph level; (2) The limited expressiveness of student MLPs, especially in datasets with limited input feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MuGSI, a novel KD framework that employs Multi-granularity Structural Information for graph classification. Specifically, we propose multi-granularity distillation loss in MuGSI to tackle the first challenge. This loss function is composed of three distinct components: graph-level distillation, subgraph-level distillation, and node-level distillation. Each component targets a specific granularity of the graph structure, ensuring a comprehensive transfer of structural knowledge from the teacher model to the student model. To tackle the second challenge, MuGSI proposes to incorporate a node feature augmentation component, thereby enhancing the expressiveness of the student MLPs and making them more capable learners. We perform extensive experiments across a variety of datasets and different teacher/student model architectures. The experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness of MuGSI. Codes are publicly available at: \textbf{\url{https://github.com/tianyao-aka/MuGSI}.}

Defu Cao, Yujing Wang, Juanyong Duan et al.

Multivariate time-series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications. It is a challenging problem as one needs to consider both intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series correlations simultaneously. Recently, there have been multiple works trying to capture both correlations, but most, if not all of them only capture temporal correlations in the time domain and resort to pre-defined priors as inter-series relationships. In this paper, we propose Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (StemGNN) to further improve the accuracy of multivariate time-series forecasting. StemGNN captures inter-series correlations and temporal dependencies \textit{jointly} in the \textit{spectral domain}. It combines Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) which models inter-series correlations and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) which models temporal dependencies in an end-to-end framework. After passing through GFT and DFT, the spectral representations hold clear patterns and can be predicted effectively by convolution and sequential learning modules. Moreover, StemGNN learns inter-series correlations automatically from the data without using pre-defined priors. We conduct extensive experiments on ten real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of StemGNN. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/StemGNN/

Xiaoda Wang, Minxiao Wang, Kaiqiao Han et al.

Electrocardiography (ECG) is the clinical standard for cardiac assessment but requires dedicated hardware that does not scale to daily-life monitoring. Photoplethysmography (PPG) is ubiquitous in wearables but lacks ECG-specific diagnostic morphology and is corrupted by motion and sensor noise. PPG-to-ECG generation aims to bridge this gap by recovering electrical morphology and timing from peripheral pulse signals. However, existing methods largely rely on statistical alignment and data-driven generation. They fail to explicitly structure the latent space around physiology-aware electro-hemodynamic factors and lack constraints from forward physiological dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose PG-LRF, a physiology-guided latent rectified flow framework. PG-LRF introduces an electro-hemodynamic simulator that co-models ECG and PPG through shared cardiac phase dynamics. Guided by this simulator, a Physiology-Aware AutoEncoder learns a structured electro-hemodynamic latent space. Then we integrate this simulator guidance into a PPG-conditioned latent rectified flow, enforcing ECG-side morphology consistency and ECG-to-PPG forward hemodynamic consistency during generative transport. Experiments on the large-scale MC-MED dataset demonstrate that PG-LRF significantly improves PPG-to-ECG generation and downstream cardiovascular disease classification, proving its ability to generate ECGs that are both signal-faithful and physiologically plausible under the ECG-to-PPG hemodynamic pathway

Xiongye Xiao, Gengshuo Liu, Gaurav Gupta et al.

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world in autonomous systems and cyber-physical systems. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Different from most traditional fusion models that incorporate all modalities identically in neural networks, our model designates a prime modality and regards the remaining modalities as detectors in the information pathway, serving to distill the flow of information. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of multimodal representation learning. Experimental evaluations on the MUStARD, CMU-MOSI, and CMU-MOSEI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks. Remarkably, on the CMU-MOSI dataset, ITHP surpasses human-level performance in the multimodal sentiment binary classification task across all evaluation metrics (i.e., Binary Accuracy, F1 Score, Mean Absolute Error, and Pearson Correlation).

Yizhou Zhang, Lun Du, Defu Cao et al.

Foundation models, such as Large language Models (LLMs), have attracted significant amount of interest due to their large number of applications. However, when handling tasks involving repetitive sub-tasks and/or deceptive contents, such as arithmetic calculation and article-level fake news detection, simple instructional prompts suffer from inaccurate responses. Existing works show that more complicated prompting strategies, such as Chain-of-Thoughts and Least-to-Most, can unlock LLM's powerful capacity in diverse areas. Recent researches reveal that simple divide-and-conquer prompting strategy, i.e. simply dividing the input sequence to multiple sub-inputs, can also substantially improve LLM's performance in some specific tasks such as misinformation detection. In this paper, we aim at examining the utility of divide-and-conquer prompting strategy and answer on which kind of tasks this strategy gets advantages. Specifically, we provide a theoretic analysis to divide-and-conquer prompting strategy and help us identify the specific tasks where DaC prompting can bring performance boost with theoretic guarantee. We then present two cases (large integer arithmetic and fact verification) where experimental results aligns with our theoretic analysis.

Xiongye Xiao, Heng Ping, Chenyu Zhou et al.

In recent years, there has been increasing attention on the capabilities of large models, particularly in handling complex tasks that small-scale models are unable to perform. Notably, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated ``intelligent'' abilities such as complex reasoning and abstract language comprehension, reflecting cognitive-like behaviors. However, current research on emergent abilities in large models predominantly focuses on the relationship between model performance and size, leaving a significant gap in the systematic quantitative analysis of the internal structures and mechanisms driving these emergent abilities. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience research on brain network structure and self-organization, we propose (i) a general network representation of large models, (ii) a new analytical framework, called Neuron-based Multifractal Analysis (NeuroMFA), for structural analysis, and (iii) a novel structure-based metric as a proxy for emergent abilities of large models. By linking structural features to the capabilities of large models, NeuroMFA provides a quantitative framework for analyzing emergent phenomena in large models. Our experiments show that the proposed method yields a comprehensive measure of network's evolving heterogeneity and organization, offering theoretical foundations and a new perspective for investigating emergent abilities in large models.

Sam Griesemer, Defu Cao, Zijun Cui et al.

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under simulation models. This has led to the rise of simulation-based inference (SBI), a class of machine learning-enabled techniques for approaching inverse problems with stochastic simulators. Many such methods, however, require large numbers of simulation samples and face difficulty scaling to high-dimensional settings, often making inference prohibitive under resource-intensive simulators. To mitigate these drawbacks, we introduce active sequential neural posterior estimation (ASNPE). ASNPE brings an active learning scheme into the inference loop to estimate the utility of simulation parameter candidates to the underlying probabilistic model. The proposed acquisition scheme is easily integrated into existing posterior estimation pipelines, allowing for improved sample efficiency with low computational overhead. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the travel demand calibration setting, a high-dimensional inverse problem commonly requiring computationally expensive traffic simulators. Our method outperforms well-tuned benchmarks and state-of-the-art posterior estimation methods on a large-scale real-world traffic network, as well as demonstrates a performance advantage over non-active counterparts on a suite of SBI benchmark environments.

Shixuan Li, Wei Yang, Peiyu Zhang et al.

Weather forecasting is crucial for public safety, disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural production, and energy management, with global relevance. Although deep learning has significantly advanced weather prediction, current methods face critical limitations: (i) they often struggle to capture both dynamic temporal dependencies and short-term abrupt changes, making extreme weather modeling difficult; (ii) they incur high computational costs due to extensive training and resource requirements; (iii) they have limited adaptability to multi-scale frequencies, leading to challenges when separating global trends from local fluctuations. To address these issues, we propose ClimateLLM, a foundation model for weather forecasting. It captures spatiotemporal dependencies via a cross-temporal and cross-spatial collaborative modeling framework that integrates Fourier-based frequency decomposition with Large Language Models (LLMs) to strengthen spatial and temporal modeling. Our framework uses a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) mechanism that adaptively processes different frequency components, enabling efficient handling of both global signals and localized extreme events. In addition, we introduce a cross-temporal and cross-spatial dynamic prompting mechanism, allowing LLMs to incorporate meteorological patterns across multiple scales effectively. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that ClimateLLM outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in accuracy and efficiency, as a scalable solution for global weather forecasting.

Wei Yang, Defu Cao, Jiacheng Pang et al.

While scaling individual Large Language Models (LLMs) has delivered remarkable progress, the next frontier lies in scaling collaboration through multi-agent systems (MAS). However, purely autonomous MAS remain ''closed-world'' systems, constrained by the static knowledge horizon of pre-trained models. This limitation makes them brittle on tasks requiring knowledge beyond training data, often leading to collective failure under novel challenges. To address this, we propose the Human-In-the-Loop Multi-Agent Collaboration (HILA) framework, a principled paradigm for human--agent collaboration. HILA trains agents to learn a metacognitive policy that governs when to solve problems autonomously and when to defer to a human expert. To operationalize this policy, we introduce Dual-Loop Policy Optimization, which disentangles immediate decision-making from long-term capability growth. The inner loop applies Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with a cost-aware reward to optimize deferral decisions, while the outer loop implements continual learning, transforming expert feedback into high-quality supervised signals that strengthen the agent's reasoning ability. Experiments on challenging mathematical and problem-solving benchmarks show that HILA, equipped with Dual-Loop Policy Optimization, consistently outperforms advanced MAS, establishing a principled foundation for collaborative and continually improving agentic systems.

Aiden Lewington, Alekhya Vittalam, Anshumaan Singh et al.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) present significant risks and opportunities, requiring improved governance to mitigate societal harms and promote equitable benefits. Current incentive structures and regulatory delays may hinder responsible AI development and deployment, particularly in light of the transformative potential of large language models (LLMs). To address these challenges, we propose developing the following three contributions: (1) a large multimodal text and economic-timeseries foundation model that integrates economic and natural language policy data for enhanced forecasting and decision-making, (2) algorithmic mechanisms for eliciting diverse and representative perspectives, enabling the creation of data-driven public policy recommendations, and (3) an AI-driven web platform for supporting transparent, inclusive, and data-driven policymaking.

Wei Yang, Defu Cao, Yan Liu

Accurate demand forecasting is critical for supply chain optimization, yet remains difficult in practice due to hierarchical complexity, domain shifts, and evolving external factors. While recent foundation models offer strong potential for time series forecasting, they often suffer from architectural rigidity and limited robustness under distributional change. In this paper, we propose a unified ensemble framework that enhances the performance of foundation models for sales forecasting in real-world supply chains. Our method combines two complementary strategies: (1) Hierarchical Ensemble (HE), which partitions training and inference by semantic levels (e.g., store, category, department) to capture localized patterns; and (2) Architectural Ensemble (AE), which integrates predictions from diverse model backbones to mitigate bias and improve stability. We conduct extensive experiments on the M5 benchmark and three external sales datasets, covering both in-domain and zero-shot forecasting. Results show that our approach consistently outperforms strong baselines, improves accuracy across hierarchical levels, and provides a simple yet effective mechanism for boosting generalization in complex forecasting environments.

Yuehan Qin, Li Li, Defu Cao et al.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness is a critical challenge for modern machine learning systems, particularly as they increasingly operate in multimodal settings involving inputs like video, audio, and sensor data. Currently, many OOD detection methods have been proposed, each with different designs targeting various distribution shifts. A single OOD detector may not prevail across all the scenarios; therefore, how can we automatically select an ideal OOD detection model for different distribution shifts? Due to the inherent unsupervised nature of the OOD detection task, it is difficult to predict model performance and find a universally Best model. Also, systematically comparing models on the new unseen data is costly or even impractical. To address this challenge, we introduce M3OOD, a meta-learning-based framework for OOD detector selection in multimodal settings. Meta learning offers a solution by learning from historical model behaviors, enabling rapid adaptation to new data distribution shifts with minimal supervision. Our approach combines multimodal embeddings with handcrafted meta-features that capture distributional and cross-modal characteristics to represent datasets. By leveraging historical performance across diverse multimodal benchmarks, M3OOD can recommend suitable detectors for a new data distribution shift. Experimental evaluation demonstrates that M3OOD consistently outperforms 10 competitive baselines across 12 test scenarios with minimal computational overhead.

Defu Cao, Angela Zhou

Offline reinforcement learning is important in many settings with available observational data but the inability to deploy new policies online due to safety, cost, and other concerns. Many recent advances in causal inference and machine learning target estimation of causal contrast functions such as CATE, which is sufficient for optimizing decisions and can adapt to potentially smoother structure. We develop a dynamic generalization of the R-learner (Nie and Wager 2021, Lewis and Syrgkanis 2021) for estimating and optimizing the difference of $Q^π$-functions, $Q^π(s,1)-Q^π(s,0)$ (which can be used to optimize multiple-valued actions). We leverage orthogonal estimation to improve convergence rates in the presence of slower nuisance estimation rates and prove consistency of policy optimization under a margin condition. The method can leverage black-box nuisance estimators of the $Q$-function and behavior policy to target estimation of a more structured $Q$-function contrast.

Chuizheng Meng, Sungyong Seo, Defu Cao et al.

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML), referring to the combination of prior knowledge of physics, which is the high level abstraction of natural phenomenons and human behaviours in the long history, with data-driven machine learning models, has emerged as an effective way to mitigate the shortage of training data, to increase models' generalizability and to ensure the physical plausibility of results. In this paper, we survey an abundant number of recent works in PIML and summarize them from three aspects: (1) motivations of PIML, (2) physics knowledge in PIML, (3) methods of physics knowledge integration in PIML. We also discuss current challenges and corresponding research opportunities in PIML.

Defu Cao, Jiachen Li, Hengbo Ma et al.

An effective understanding of the contextual environment and accurate motion forecasting of surrounding agents is crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles and social mobile robots. This task is challenging since the behavior of an autonomous agent is not only affected by its own intention, but also by the static environment and surrounding dynamically interacting agents. Previous works focused on utilizing the spatial and temporal information in time domain while not sufficiently taking advantage of the cues in frequency domain. To this end, we propose a Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (SpecTGNN), which can capture inter-agent correlations and temporal dependency simultaneously in frequency domain in addition to time domain. SpecTGNN operates on both an agent graph with dynamic state information and an environment graph with the features extracted from context images in two streams. The model integrates graph Fourier transform, spectral graph convolution and temporal gated convolution to encode history information and forecast future trajectories. Moreover, we incorporate a multi-head spatio-temporal attention mechanism to mitigate the effect of error propagation in a long time horizon. We demonstrate the performance of SpecTGNN on two public trajectory prediction benchmark datasets, which achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of prediction accuracy.

Hang Zhao, Yujing Wang, Juanyong Duan et al.

Anomaly detection on multivariate time-series is of great importance in both data mining research and industrial applications. Recent approaches have achieved significant progress in this topic, but there is remaining limitations. One major limitation is that they do not capture the relationships between different time-series explicitly, resulting in inevitable false alarms. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised framework for multivariate time-series anomaly detection to address this issue. Our framework considers each univariate time-series as an individual feature and includes two graph attention layers in parallel to learn the complex dependencies of multivariate time-series in both temporal and feature dimensions. In addition, our approach jointly optimizes a forecasting-based model and are construction-based model, obtaining better time-series representations through a combination of single-timestamp prediction and reconstruction of the entire time-series. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model through extensive experiments. The proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets. Further analysis shows that our method has good interpretability and is useful for anomaly diagnosis.