Adrienne Raglin

Paras Sheth, Raha Moraffah, K. Selçuk Candan et al.

Machine learning models rely on various assumptions to attain high accuracy. One of the preliminary assumptions of these models is the independent and identical distribution, which suggests that the train and test data are sampled from the same distribution. However, this assumption seldom holds in the real world due to distribution shifts. As a result models that rely on this assumption exhibit poor generalization capabilities. Over the recent years, dedicated efforts have been made to improve the generalization capabilities of these models collectively known as -- \textit{domain generalization methods}. The primary idea behind these methods is to identify stable features or mechanisms that remain invariant across the different distributions. Many generalization approaches employ causal theories to describe invariance since causality and invariance are inextricably intertwined. However, current surveys deal with the causality-aware domain generalization methods on a very high-level. Furthermore, we argue that it is possible to categorize the methods based on how causality is leveraged in that method and in which part of the model pipeline is it used. To this end, we categorize the causal domain generalization methods into three categories, namely, (i) Invariance via Causal Data Augmentation methods which are applied during the data pre-processing stage, (ii) Invariance via Causal representation learning methods that are utilized during the representation learning stage, and (iii) Invariance via Transferring Causal mechanisms methods that are applied during the classification stage of the pipeline. Furthermore, this survey includes in-depth insights into benchmark datasets and code repositories for domain generalization methods. We conclude the survey with insights and discussions on future directions.

Jumman Hossain, Emon Dey, Snehalraj Chugh et al.

Cross reality integration of simulation and physical robots is a promising approach for multi-robot operations in contested environments, where communication may be intermittent, interference may be present, and observability may be degraded. We present SERN (Simulation-Enhanced Realistic Navigation), a framework that tightly couples a high-fidelity virtual twin with physical robots to support real-time collaborative decision making. SERN makes three main contributions. First, it builds a virtual twin from geospatial and sensor data and continuously corrects it using live robot telemetry. Second, it introduces a physics-aware synchronization pipeline that combines predictive modeling with adaptive PD control. Third, it provides a bandwidth-adaptive ROS bridge that prioritizes critical topics when communication links are constrained. We also introduce a multi-metric cost function that balances latency, reliability, computation, and bandwidth. Theoretically, we show that when the adaptive controller keeps the physical and virtual input mismatch small, synchronization error remains bounded under moderate packet loss and latency. Empirically, SERN reduces end-to-end message latency by 15% to 25% and processing load by about 15% compared with a standard ROS setup, while maintaining tight real-virtual alignment with less than 5 cm positional error and less than 2 degrees rotational error. In a navigation task, SERN achieves a 95% success rate, compared with 85% for a real-only setup and 70% for a simulation-only setup, while also requiring fewer interventions and less time to reach the goal. These results show that a simulation-enhanced cross-reality stack can improve situational awareness and multi-agent coordination in contested environments by enabling look-ahead planning in the virtual twin while using real sensor feedback to correct discrepancies.

Pingchuan Ma, Chengshuai Zhao, Bohan Jiang et al.

Crisis classification in social media aims to extract actionable disaster-related information from multimodal posts, which is a crucial task for enhancing situational awareness and facilitating timely emergency responses. However, the wide variation in crisis types makes achieving generalizable performance across unseen disasters a persistent challenge. Existing approaches primarily leverage deep learning to fuse textual and visual cues for crisis classification, achieving numerically plausible results under in-domain settings. However, they exhibit poor generalization across unseen crisis types because they 1. do not disentangle spurious and causal features, resulting in performance degradation under domain shift, and 2. fail to align heterogeneous modality representations within a shared space, which hinders the direct adaptation of established single-modality domain generalization (DG) techniques to the multimodal setting. To address these issues, we introduce a causality-guided multimodal domain generalization (MMDG) framework that combines adversarial disentanglement with unified representation learning for crisis classification. The adversarial objective encourages the model to disentangle and focus on domain-invariant causal features, leading to more generalizable classifications grounded in stable causal mechanisms. The unified representation aligns features from different modalities within a shared latent space, enabling single-modality DG strategies to be seamlessly extended to multimodal learning. Experiments on the different datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves the best performance in unseen disaster scenarios.

Ujun Jeong, Saketh Vishnubhatla, Bohan Jiang et al.

During disasters, extracting causal relations from social media can strengthen situational awareness by identifying factors linked to casualties, physical damage, infrastructure disruption, and cascading impacts. However, disaster-related posts are often informal, fragmented, and context-dependent, and they may describe personal experiences rather than explicit causal relations. In this work, we examine whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can effectively extract causal relations from disaster-related social media posts. To this end, we (1) propose an expert-grounded evaluation framework that compares LLM-generated causal graphs with reference graphs derived from disaster-specific reports and (2) assess whether the extracted relations are supported by post-event evidence or instead reflect model priors. Our findings highlight both the potential and risks of using LLMs for causal relation extraction in disaster decision-support systems.

Saketh Vishnubhatla, Shu Wan, Andre Harrison et al.

Aggregate outcome variables collected through surveys and administrative records are often subject to systematic measurement error. For instance, in disaster loss databases, county-level losses reported may differ from the true damages due to variations in on-the-ground data collection capacity, reporting practices, and event characteristics. Such miscalibration complicates downstream analysis and decision-making. We study the problem of outcome miscalibration and propose a framework guided by proxy variables for estimating and correcting the systematic errors. We model the data-generating process using a causal graph that separates latent content variables driving the true outcome from the latent bias variables that induce systematic errors. The key insight is that proxy variables that depend on the true outcome but are independent of the bias mechanism provide identifying information for quantifying the bias. Leveraging this structure, we introduce a two-stage approach that utilizes variational autoencoders to disentangle content and bias latents, enabling us to estimate the effect of bias on the outcome of interest. We analyze the assumptions underlying our approach and evaluate it on synthetic data, semi-synthetic datasets derived from randomized trials, and a real-world case study of disaster loss reporting.

Saketh Vishnubhatla, Alimohammad Beigi, Rui Heng Foo et al.

Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions, situation reports) results in a severity assessment. However, these systems are not meant to be interventional in the causal sense, where the user can modify the current input state to simulate counterfactual "what-if" scenarios. In this work, we provide an alternative interventional tool that complements traditional disaster modelling tools by leveraging real-time data sources like satellite imagery, news, and social media. Our tool also helps understand the causal attribution of different factors on the estimated severity, over any given region of interest. In addition, we provide actionable recourses that would enable easier mitigation planning. Our source code is publicly available.

Saketh Vishnubhatla, Ujun Jeong, Bohan Jiang et al.

Assessing the impact of a disaster in terms of asset losses and human casualties is essential for preparing effective response plans. Traditional methods include offline assessments conducted on the ground, where volunteers and first responders work together to collect the estimate of losses through windshield surveys or on-ground inspection. However, these methods have a time delay and are prone to different biases. Recently, various online data sources, including social media, news reports, aerial imagery, and satellite data, have been utilized to evaluate the impact of disasters. Online data sources provide real-time data streams for estimating the offline impact. Limited research exists on how different online sources help estimate disaster impact at a given administrative unit. In our work, we curate a comprehensive dataset by collecting data from multiple online sources for a few billion-dollar disasters at the county level. We also analyze how online estimates compare with traditional offline-based impact estimates for the disaster. Our findings provide insight into how different sources can provide complementary information to assess the disaster.

Piyush K. Sharma, Mark Dennison, Adrienne Raglin

Deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and Data Fusion techniques have gained popularity in public and government domains. This usually requires capturing and consolidating data from multiple sources. As datasets do not necessarily originate from identical sensors, fused data typically results in a complex data problem. Because military is investigating how heterogeneous IoT devices can aid processes and tasks, we investigate a multi-sensor approach. Moreover, we propose a signal to image encoding approach to transform information (signal) to integrate (fuse) data from IoT wearable devices to an image which is invertible and easier to visualize supporting decision making. Furthermore, we investigate the challenge of enabling an intelligent identification and detection operation and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed Deep Learning and Anomaly Detection models that can support future application that utilizes hand gesture data from wearable devices.

Piyush K. Sharma, Adrienne Raglin

The military is investigating methods to improve communication and agility in its multi-domain operations (MDO). Nascent popularity of Internet of Things (IoT) has gained traction in public and government domains. Its usage in MDO may revolutionize future battlefields and may enable strategic advantage. While this technology offers leverage to military capabilities, it comes with challenges where one is the uncertainty and associated risk. A key question is how can these uncertainties be addressed. Recently published studies proposed information camouflage to transform information from one data domain to another. As this is comparatively a new approach, we investigate challenges of such transformations and how these associated uncertainties can be detected and addressed, specifically unknown-unknowns to improve decision-making.

Raha Moraffah, Paras Sheth, Mansooreh Karami et al.

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been proposed to analyze this type of data. Time series data has been also used to study the effect of interventions over time. Moreover, in many fields of science, learning the causal structure of dynamic systems and time series data is considered an interesting task which plays an important role in scientific discoveries. Estimating the effect of an intervention and identifying the causal relations from the data can be performed via causal inference. Existing surveys on time series discuss traditional tasks such as classification and forecasting or explain the details of the approaches proposed to solve a specific task. In this paper, we focus on two causal inference tasks, i.e., treatment effect estimation and causal discovery for time series data, and provide a comprehensive review of the approaches in each task. Furthermore, we curate a list of commonly used evaluation metrics and datasets for each task and provide in-depth insight. These metrics and datasets can serve as benchmarks for research in the field.

Raha Moraffah, Bahman Moraffah, Mansooreh Karami et al.

We propose a generative Causal Adversarial Network (CAN) for learning and sampling from conditional and interventional distributions. In contrast to the existing CausalGAN which requires the causal graph to be given, our proposed framework learns the causal relations from the data and generates samples accordingly. The proposed CAN comprises a two-fold process namely Label Generation Network (LGN) and Conditional Image Generation Network (CIGN). The LGN is a GAN-based architecture which learns and samples from the causal model over labels. The sampled labels are then fed to CIGN, a conditional GAN architecture, which learns the relationships amongst labels and pixels and pixels themselves and generates samples based on them. This framework is equipped with an intervention mechanism which enables. the model to generate samples from interventional distributions. We quantitatively and qualitatively assess the performance of CAN and empirically show that our model is able to generate both interventional and conditional samples without having access to the causal graph for the application of face generation on CelebA data.

Raha Moraffah, Mansooreh Karami, Ruocheng Guo et al.

Machine learning models have had discernible achievements in a myriad of applications. However, most of these models are black-boxes, and it is obscure how the decisions are made by them. This makes the models unreliable and untrustworthy. To provide insights into the decision making processes of these models, a variety of traditional interpretable models have been proposed. Moreover, to generate more human-friendly explanations, recent work on interpretability tries to answer questions related to causality such as "Why does this model makes such decisions?" or "Was it a specific feature that caused the decision made by the model?". In this work, models that aim to answer causal questions are referred to as causal interpretable models. The existing surveys have covered concepts and methodologies of traditional interpretability. In this work, we present a comprehensive survey on causal interpretable models from the aspects of the problems and methods. In addition, this survey provides in-depth insights into the existing evaluation metrics for measuring interpretability, which can help practitioners understand for what scenarios each evaluation metric is suitable.

Raha Moraffah, Kai Shu, Adrienne Raglin et al.

Studies show that the representations learned by deep neural networks can be transferred to similar prediction tasks in other domains for which we do not have enough labeled data. However, as we transition to higher layers in the model, the representations become more task-specific and less generalizable. Recent research on deep domain adaptation proposed to mitigate this problem by forcing the deep model to learn more transferable feature representations across domains. This is achieved by incorporating domain adaptation methods into deep learning pipeline. The majority of existing models learn the transferable feature representations which are highly correlated with the outcome. However, correlations are not always transferable. In this paper, we propose a novel deep causal representation learning framework for unsupervised domain adaptation, in which we propose to learn domain-invariant causal representations of the input from the source domain. We simulate a virtual target domain using reweighted samples from the source domain and estimate the causal effect of features on the outcomes. The extensive comparative study demonstrates the strengths of the proposed model for unsupervised domain adaptation via causal representations.