Bingqing Qu

Bangchao Deng, Xin Jing, Tianyue Yang et al.

Human trajectory data, which plays a crucial role in various applications such as crowd management and epidemic prevention, is challenging to obtain due to practical constraints and privacy concerns. In this context, synthetic human trajectory data is generated to simulate as close as possible to real-world human trajectories, often under summary statistics and distributional similarities. However, these similarities oversimplify complex human mobility patterns (a.k.a. ``Datasaurus''), resulting in intrinsic biases in both generative model design and benchmarks of the generated trajectories. Against this background, we propose MIRAGE, a huMan-Imitative tRAjectory GenErative model designed as a neural Temporal Point Process integrating an Exploration and Preferential Return model. It imitates the human decision-making process in trajectory generation, rather than fitting any specific statistical distributions as traditional methods do, thus avoiding the Datasaurus issue. We also propose a comprehensive task-based evaluation protocol beyond Datasaurus to systematically benchmark trajectory generative models on four typical downstream tasks, integrating multiple techniques and evaluation metrics for each task, to assess the ultimate utility of the generated trajectories. We conduct a thorough evaluation of MIRAGE on three real-world user trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that compared to the best baselines, MIRAGE-generated trajectory data not only achieves the best statistical and distributional similarities with 59.0-67.7% improvement, but also yields the best performance in the task-based evaluation with 10.9-33.4% improvement. A series of ablation studies also validate the key design choices of MIRAGE.

Yuqian Wu, Yuhong Peng, Jiapeng Yu et al.

Next location prediction is a key task in human mobility analysis, crucial for applications like smart city resource allocation and personalized navigation services. However, existing methods face two significant challenges: first, they fail to address the dynamic imbalance between periodic and chaotic mobile patterns, leading to inadequate adaptation over sparse trajectories; second, they underutilize contextual cues, such as temporal regularities in arrival times, which persist even in chaotic patterns and offer stronger predictability than spatial forecasts due to reduced search spaces. To tackle these challenges, we propose \textbf{\method}, a \underline{\textbf{C}}h\underline{\textbf{A}}otic \underline{\textbf{N}}eural \underline{\textbf{O}}scillator n\underline{\textbf{E}}twork for next location prediction, which introduces a biologically inspired Chaotic Neural Oscillatory Attention mechanism to inject adaptive variability into traditional attention, enabling balanced representation of evolving mobility behaviors, and employs a Tri-Pair Interaction Encoder along with a Cross Context Attentive Decoder to fuse multimodal ``who-when-where'' contexts in a joint framework for enhanced prediction performance. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that CANOE consistently and significantly outperforms a sizeable collection of state-of-the-art baselines, yielding 3.17\%-13.11\% improvement over the best-performing baselines across different cases. In particular, CANOE can make robust predictions over mobility trajectories of different mobility chaotic levels. A series of ablation studies also supports our key design choices. Our code is available at: https://github.com/yuqian2003/CANOE.

Bangchao Deng, Bingqing Qu, Pengyang Wang et al.

Location prediction forecasts a user's location based on historical user mobility traces. To tackle the intrinsic sparsity issue of real-world user mobility traces, spatiotemporal contexts have been shown as significantly useful. Existing solutions mostly incorporate spatiotemporal distances between locations in mobility traces, either by feeding them as additional inputs to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or by using them to search for informative past hidden states for prediction. However, such distance-based methods fail to capture the time-varying temporal regularities of human mobility, where human mobility is often more regular in the morning than in other periods, for example; this suggests the usefulness of the actual timestamps besides the temporal distances. Against this background, we propose REPLAY, a general RNN architecture learning to capture the time-varying temporal regularities for location prediction. Specifically, REPLAY not only resorts to the spatiotemporal distances in sparse trajectories to search for the informative past hidden states, but also accommodates the time-varying temporal regularities by incorporating smoothed timestamp embeddings using Gaussian weighted averaging with timestamp-specific learnable bandwidths, which can flexibly adapt to the temporal regularities of different strengths across different timestamps. Our extensive evaluation compares REPLAY against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world datasets. Results show that REPLAY consistently and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 7.7\%-10.5\% in the location prediction task, and the bandwidths reveal interesting patterns of the time-varying temporal regularities.

Bangchao Deng, Lianhua Ji, Chunhua Chen et al.

Next location prediction is a critical task in human mobility modeling, enabling applications like travel planning and urban mobility management. Existing methods mainly rely on historical spatiotemporal trajectory data to train sequence models that directly forecast future locations. However, they often overlook the importance of the future spatiotemporal contexts, which are highly informative for the future locations. For example, knowing how much time and distance a user will travel could serve as a critical clue for predicting the user's next location. Against this background, we propose \textbf{STRelay}, a universal \textbf{\underline{S}}patio\textbf{\underline{T}}emporal \textbf{\underline{Relay}}ing framework explicitly modeling the future spatiotemporal context given a human trajectory, to boost the performance of different location prediction models. Specifically, STRelay models future spatiotemporal contexts in a relaying manner, which is subsequently integrated with the encoded historical representation from a base location prediction model, enabling multi-task learning by simultaneously predicting the next time interval, next moving distance interval, and finally the next location. We evaluate STRelay integrated with four state-of-the-art location prediction base models on four real-world trajectory datasets. Results demonstrate that STRelay consistently improves prediction performance across all cases by 3.19\%-11.56\%. Additionally, we find that the future spatiotemporal contexts are particularly helpful for entertainment-related locations and also for user groups who prefer traveling longer distances. The performance gain on such non-daily-routine activities, which often suffer from higher uncertainty, is indeed complementary to the base location prediction models that often excel at modeling regular daily routine patterns.