Ali Mostafavi

Navjot Kaur, Cheng-Chun Lee, Ali Mostafavi et al.

This paper presents \dahitra, a novel deep-learning model with hierarchical transformers to classify building damages based on satellite images in the aftermath of natural disasters. Satellite imagery provides real-time and high-coverage information and offers opportunities to inform large-scale post-disaster building damage assessment, which is critical for rapid emergency response. In this work, a novel transformer-based network is proposed for assessing building damage. This network leverages hierarchical spatial features of multiple resolutions and captures the temporal differences in the feature domain after applying a transformer encoder on the spatial features. The proposed network achieves state-of-the-art performance when tested on a large-scale disaster damage dataset (xBD) for building localization and damage classification, as well as on LEVIR-CD dataset for change detection tasks. In addition, this work introduces a new high-resolution satellite imagery dataset, Ida-BD (related to 2021 Hurricane Ida in Louisiana in 2021) for domain adaptation. Further, it demonstrates an approach of using this dataset by adapting the model with limited fine-tuning and hence applying the model to newly damaged areas with scarce data.

Yu-Hsuan Ho, Cheng-Chun Lee, Nicholas D. Diaz et al.

We propose an automated lowest floor elevation (LFE) estimation algorithm based on computer vision techniques to leverage the latent information in street view images. Flood depth-damage models use a combination of LFE and flood depth for determining flood risk and extent of damage to properties. We used image segmentation for detecting door bottoms and roadside edges from Google Street View images. The characteristic of equirectangular projection with constant spacing representation of horizontal and vertical angles allows extraction of the pitch angle from the camera to the door bottom. The depth from the camera to the door bottom was obtained from the depthmap paired with the Google Street View image. LFEs were calculated from the pitch angle and the depth. The testbed for application of the proposed method is Meyerland (Harris County, Texas). The results show that the proposed method achieved mean absolute error of 0.190 m (1.18 %) in estimating LFE. The height difference between the street and the lowest floor (HDSL) was estimated to provide information for flood damage estimation. The proposed automatic LFE estimation algorithm using Street View images and image segmentation provides a rapid and cost-effective method for LFE estimation compared with the surveys using total station theodolite and unmanned aerial systems. By obtaining more accurate and up-to-date LFE data using the proposed method, city planners, emergency planners and insurance companies could make a more precise estimation of flood damage.

Chenyue Liu, Chao Fan, Ali Mostafavi

Understanding the determinants underlying variations in urban health status is important for informing urban design and planning, as well as public health policies. Multiple heterogeneous urban features could modulate the prevalence of diseases across different neighborhoods in cities and across different cities. This study examines heterogeneous features related to socio-demographics, population activity, mobility, and the built environment and their non-linear interactions to examine intra- and inter-city disparity in prevalence of four disease types: obesity, diabetes, cancer, and heart disease. Features related to population activity, mobility, and facility density are obtained from large-scale anonymized mobility data. These features are used in training and testing graph attention network (GAT) models to capture non-linear feature interactions as well as spatial interdependence among neighborhoods. We tested the models in five U.S. cities across the four disease types. The results show that the GAT model can predict the health status of people in neighborhoods based on the top five determinant features. The findings unveil that population activity and built-environment features along with socio-demographic features differentiate the health status of neighborhoods to such a great extent that a GAT model could predict the health status using these features with high accuracy. The results also show that the model trained on one city can predict health status in another city with high accuracy, allowing us to quantify the inter-city similarity and discrepancy in health status. The model and findings provide novel approaches and insights for urban designers, planners, and public health officials to better understand and improve health disparities in cities by considering the significant determinant features and their interactions.

Junwei Ma, Bo Li, Qingchun Li et al.

The spread of COVID-19 revealed that transmission risk patterns are not homogenous across different cities and communities, and various heterogeneous features can influence the spread trajectories. Hence, for predictive pandemic monitoring, it is essential to explore latent heterogeneous features in cities and communities that distinguish their specific pandemic spread trajectories. To this end, this study creates a network embedding model capturing cross-county visitation networks, as well as heterogeneous features to uncover clusters of counties in the United States based on their pandemic spread transmission trajectories. We collected and computed location intelligence features from 2,787 counties from March 3 to June 29, 2020 (initial wave). Second, we constructed a human visitation network, which incorporated county features as node attributes, and visits between counties as network edges. Our attributed network embeddings approach integrates both typological characteristics of the cross-county visitation network, as well as heterogeneous features. We conducted clustering analysis on the attributed network embeddings to reveal four archetypes of spread risk trajectories corresponding to four clusters of counties. Subsequently, we identified four features as important features underlying the distinctive transmission risk patterns among the archetypes. The attributed network embedding approach and the findings identify and explain the non-homogenous pandemic risk trajectories across counties for predictive pandemic monitoring. The study also contributes to data-driven and deep learning-based approaches for pandemic analytics to complement the standard epidemiological models for policy analysis in pandemics.

Chenyue Liu, Ali Mostafavi

This study investigates the interplay among social demographics, built environment characteristics, and environmental hazard exposure features in determining community level cancer prevalence. Utilizing data from five Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States: Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York, the study implemented an XGBoost machine learning model to predict the extent of cancer prevalence and evaluate the importance of different features. Our model demonstrates reliable performance, with results indicating that age, minority status, and population density are among the most influential factors in cancer prevalence. We further explore urban development and design strategies that could mitigate cancer prevalence, focusing on green space, developed areas, and total emissions. Through a series of experimental evaluations based on causal inference, the results show that increasing green space and reducing developed areas and total emissions could alleviate cancer prevalence. The study and findings contribute to a better understanding of the interplay among urban features and community health and also show the value of interpretable machine learning models for integrated urban design to promote public health. The findings also provide actionable insights for urban planning and design, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to addressing urban health disparities through integrated urban design strategies.

Cheng-Chun Lee, Lipai Huang, Federico Antolini et al.

Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates a proposed machine learning model, MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average R-squared of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Storm Imelda, MaxFloodCast shows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model's interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. The MaxFloodCast model enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively.

Hanzhou Liu, Kai Yin, Zhitong Chen et al.

Existing Text-to-SQL benchmarks primarily focus on single-table queries or limited joins in general-purpose domains, and thus fail to reflect the complexity of domain-specific, multi-table and geospatial reasoning, To address this limitation, we introduce FLOODSQL-BENCH, a geospatially grounded benchmark for the flood management domain that integrates heterogeneous datasets through key-based, spatial, and hybrid joins. The benchmark captures realistic flood-related information needs by combining social, infrastructural, and hazard data layers. We systematically evaluate recent large language models with the same retrieval-augmented generation settings and measure their performance across difficulty tiers. By providing a unified, open benchmark grounded in real-world disaster management data, FLOODSQL-BENCH establishes a practical testbed for advancing Text-to-SQL research in high-stakes application domains.

Saleh Afroogh, Ali Mostafavi, Junfeng Jiao

In this paper, we propose Intelligent Environmental Empathy (IEE) as a new driver for climate peace and justice, as an emerging issue in the age of big data. We first show that the authoritarian top-down intergovernmental cooperation, through international organizations (e.g., UNEP) for climate justice, could not overcome environmental issues and crevices so far. We elaborate on four grounds of climate injustice (i.e., teleological origin, axiological origin, formation cause, and social epistemic cause), and explain how the lack of empathy and environmental motivation on a global scale causes the failure of all the authoritarian top-down intergovernmental cooperation. Addressing all these issues requires a new button-up approach to climate peace and justice. Secondly, focusing on the intersection of AI, environmental empathy, and climate justice, we propose a model of Intelligent Environmental Empathy (IEE) for climate peace and justice at the operational level. IEE is empowered by the new power of environmental empathy (as a driver of green obligation for climate justice) and putative decentralized platform of AI (as an operative system against free riders), which Initially, impact citizens and some middle-class decision makers, such as city planners and local administrators, but will eventually affect global decision-makers as well.

Zhewei Liu, Lipai Huang, Chao Fan et al.

Generating realistic human flows across regions is essential for our understanding of urban structures and population activity patterns, enabling important applications in the fields of urban planning and management. However, a notable shortcoming of most existing mobility generation methodologies is neglect of prediction fairness, which can result in underestimation of mobility flows across regions with vulnerable population groups, potentially resulting in inequitable resource distribution and infrastructure development. To overcome this limitation, our study presents a novel, fairness-aware deep learning model, FairMobi-Net, for inter-region human flow prediction. The FairMobi-Net model uniquely incorporates fairness loss into the loss function and employs a hybrid approach, merging binary classification and numerical regression techniques for human flow prediction. We validate the FairMobi-Net model using comprehensive human mobility datasets from four U.S. cities, predicting human flow at the census-tract level. Our findings reveal that the FairMobi-Net model outperforms state-of-the-art models (such as the DeepGravity model) in producing more accurate and equitable human flow predictions across a variety of region pairs, regardless of regional income differences. The model maintains a high degree of accuracy consistently across diverse regions, addressing the previous fairness concern. Further analysis of feature importance elucidates the impact of physical distances and road network structures on human flows across regions. With fairness as its touchstone, the model and results provide researchers and practitioners across the fields of urban sciences, transportation engineering, and computing with an effective tool for accurate generation of human mobility flows across regions.

Lipai Huang, Federico Antolini, Ali Mostafavi et al.

High-resolution flood probability maps are instrumental for assessing flood risk but are often limited by the availability of historical data. Additionally, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort, which inhibit its feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline, a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to generate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a number of precipitation-flood events model with a physics-based model. This cell-wise depth estimator, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, the Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN) is used to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation point cloud, which are filtered using strategic thresholds to align with realistic precipitation patterns. Hence, a precipitation feature pool is constructed for each cell, enabling strategic sampling and the generation of synthetic precipitation events. After generating 10,000 synthetic events, flood probability maps are created for various inundation depths. Validation using similarity and correlation metrics confirms the accuracy of the synthetic depth distributions. The Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline provides a scalable solution to generate synthetic flood depth data needed for high-resolution flood probability maps, which can enhance flood mitigation planning.

Yu-Hsuan Ho, Zhewei Liu, Cheng-Chun Lee et al.

Understanding the key factors shaping environmental hazard exposures and their associated environmental injustice issues is vital for formulating equitable policy measures. Traditional perspectives on environmental injustice have primarily focused on the socioeconomic dimensions, often overlooking the influence of heterogeneous urban characteristics. This limited view may obstruct a comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of environmental justice and its relationship with urban design features. To address this gap, this study creates an interpretable machine learning model to examine the effects of various urban features and their non-linear interactions to the exposure disparities of three primary hazards: air pollution, urban heat, and flooding. The analysis trains and tests models with data from six metropolitan counties in the United States using Random Forest and XGBoost. The performance is used to measure the extent to which variations of urban features shape disparities in environmental hazard levels. In addition, the analysis of feature importance reveals features related to social-demographic characteristics as the most prominent urban features that shape hazard extent. Features related to infrastructure distribution and land cover are relatively important for urban heat and air pollution exposure respectively. Moreover, we evaluate the models' transferability across different regions and hazards. The results highlight limited transferability, underscoring the intricate differences among hazards and regions and the way in which urban features shape hazard exposures. The insights gleaned from this study offer fresh perspectives on the relationship among urban features and their interplay with environmental hazard exposure disparities, informing the development of more integrated urban design policies to enhance social equity and environmental injustice issues.

Bo Li, Ali Mostafavi

The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying infrastructure resilience. However, the theoretical model merely provides a one-size-fits-all framework for all infrastructure systems. Most of the existing studies examine the characteristics of infrastructure resilience curves based on analytical models constructed upon simulated system performance. Limited empirical studies hindered our ability to fully understand and predict resilience characteristics in infrastructure systems. To address this gap, this study examined over 200 resilience curves related to power outages in three major extreme weather events. Using unsupervised machine learning, we examined different curve archetypes, as well as the fundamental properties of each resilience curve archetype. The results show two primary archetypes for power system resilience curves, triangular, and trapezoidal curves. Triangular curves characterize resilience behavior based on 1. critical functionality threshold, 2. critical functionality recovery rate, and 3. recovery pivot point. Trapezoidal archetypes explain resilience curves based on 1. duration of sustained function loss and 2. constant recovery rate. The longer the duration of sustained function loss, the slower the constant rate of recovery. The findings of this study provide novel perspectives enabling better understanding and prediction of resilience performance of power system infrastructures.

Zhimeng Jiang, Xiaotian Han, Chao Fan et al.

There has been significant progress in improving the performance of graph neural networks (GNNs) through enhancements in graph data, model architecture design, and training strategies. For fairness in graphs, recent studies achieve fair representations and predictions through either graph data pre-processing (e.g., node feature masking, and topology rewiring) or fair training strategies (e.g., regularization, adversarial debiasing, and fair contrastive learning). How to achieve fairness in graphs from the model architecture perspective is less explored. More importantly, GNNs exhibit worse fairness performance compared to multilayer perception since their model architecture (i.e., neighbor aggregation) amplifies biases. To this end, we aim to achieve fairness via a new GNN architecture. We propose \textsf{F}air \textsf{M}essage \textsf{P}assing (FMP) designed within a unified optimization framework for GNNs. Notably, FMP \textit{explicitly} renders sensitive attribute usage in \textit{forward propagation} for node classification task using cross-entropy loss without data pre-processing. In FMP, the aggregation is first adopted to utilize neighbors' information and then the bias mitigation step explicitly pushes demographic group node presentation centers together. In this way, FMP scheme can aggregate useful information from neighbors and mitigate bias to achieve better fairness and prediction tradeoff performance. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms several baselines in terms of fairness and accuracy on three real-world datasets. The code is available in {\url{https://github.com/zhimengj0326/FMP}}.

Kai Yin, Bo Li, Ali Mostafavi

Community resilience is a complex and muti-faceted phenomenon that emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among different socio-technical systems and their resilience properties. However, present studies on community resilience focus primarily on vulnerability assessment and utilize index-based approaches, with limited ability to capture heterogeneous features within community socio-technical systems and their nonlinear interactions in shaping robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness components of resilience. To address this gap, this paper presents an integrated three-layer deep learning model for community resilience rating (called Resili-Net). Twelve measurable resilience features are specified and computed within community socio-technical systems (i.e., facilities, infrastructures, and society) related to three resilience components of robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness. Using publicly accessible data from multiple metropolitan statistical areas in the United States, Resili-Net characterizes the resilience levels of spatial areas into five distinct levels. The interpretability of the model outcomes enables feature analysis for specifying the determinants of resilience in areas within each resilience level, allowing for the identification of specific resilience enhancement strategies. Changes in community resilience profiles under urban development patterns are further examined by changing the value of related socio-technical systems features. Accordingly, the outcomes provide novel perspectives for community resilience assessment by harnessing machine intelligence and heterogeneous urban big data.

Kai Yin, Xiangjue Dong, Chengkai Liu et al.

Effective disaster management requires timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information. Existing Information Retrieval (IR) benchmarks, however, focus primarily on general or specialized domains, such as medicine or finance, neglecting the unique linguistic complexity and diverse information needs encountered in disaster management scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce DisastIR, the first comprehensive IR evaluation benchmark specifically tailored for disaster management. DisastIR comprises 9,600 diverse user queries and more than 1.3 million labeled query-passage pairs, covering 48 distinct retrieval tasks derived from six search intents and eight general disaster categories that include 301 specific event types. Our evaluations of 30 state-of-the-art retrieval models demonstrate significant performance variances across tasks, with no single model excelling universally. Furthermore, comparative analyses reveal significant performance gaps between general-domain and disaster management-specific tasks, highlighting the necessity of disaster management-specific benchmarks for guiding IR model selection to support effective decision-making in disaster management scenarios. All source codes and DisastIR are available at https://github.com/KaiYin97/Disaster_IR.

Yu-Hsuan Ho, Ali Mostafavi

Most post-disaster damage classifiers succeed only when destructive forces leave clear spectral or structural signatures -- conditions rarely present after inundation. Consequently, existing models perform poorly at identifying flood-related building damages. The model presented in this study, Flood-DamageSense, addresses this gap as the first deep-learning framework purpose-built for building-level flood-damage assessment. The architecture fuses pre- and post-event SAR/InSAR scenes with very-high-resolution optical basemaps and an inherent flood-risk layer that encodes long-term exposure probabilities, guiding the network toward plausibly affected structures even when compositional change is minimal. A multimodal Mamba backbone with a semi-Siamese encoder and task-specific decoders jointly predicts (1) graded building-damage states, (2) floodwater extent, and (3) building footprints. Training and evaluation on Hurricane Harvey (2017) imagery from Harris County, Texas -- supported by insurance-derived property-damage extents -- show a mean F1 improvement of up to 19 percentage points over state-of-the-art baselines, with the largest gains in the frequently misclassified "minor" and "moderate" damage categories. Ablation studies identify the inherent-risk feature as the single most significant contributor to this performance boost. An end-to-end post-processing pipeline converts pixel-level outputs to actionable, building-scale damage maps within minutes of image acquisition. By combining risk-aware modeling with SAR's all-weather capability, Flood-DamageSense delivers faster, finer-grained, and more reliable flood-damage intelligence to support post-disaster decision-making and resource allocation.

Miguel Esparza, Vamshi Battal, Ali Mostafavi

As wildfires increasingly evolve into urban conflagrations, traditional risk models that treat structures as isolated assets fail to capture the non-linear contagion dynamics characteristic of the wildland urban interface (WUI). This research bridges the gap between mechanistic physics and data driven learning by establishing a novel dual specialist ensemble framework that disentangles vulnerability into two distinct vectors, environmental contagion and structural fragility. The architecture integrates two specialized predictive streams, an environmental specialist, implemented as a graph neural network (GNN) that operationalizes the community as a directed contagion graph weighted by physics informed convection, radiation, and ember probabilities, and enriched with high dimensional Google AlphaEarth Foundation embeddings, and a Structural Specialist, implemented via XGBoost to isolate granular asset level resilience. Applied to the 2025 Eaton Fire, the framework reveals a critical dichotomy in risk drivers. The GNN demonstrates that neighborhood scale environmental pressure overwhelmingly dominates intrinsic structural features in defining propagation pathways, while the XGBoost model identifies eaves as the primary micro scale ingress vector. By synthesizing these divergent signals through logistic stacking, the ensemble achieves robust classification and generates a diagnostic risk topology. This capability empowers decision makers to move beyond binary loss prediction and precisely target mitigation prioritizing vegetation management for high connectivity clusters and structural hardening for architecturally vulnerable nodes thereby operationalizing a proactive, data driven approach to community resilience.

Kai Yin, Xiangjue Dong, Chengkai Liu et al.

Effective and efficient access to relevant information is essential for disaster management. However, no retrieval model is specialized for disaster management, and existing general-domain models fail to handle the varied search intents inherent to disaster management scenarios, resulting in inconsistent and unreliable performance. To this end, we introduce DMRetriever, the first series of dense retrieval models (33M to 7.6B) tailored for this domain. It is trained through a novel three-stage framework of bidirectional attention adaptation, unsupervised contrastive pre-training, and difficulty-aware progressive instruction fine-tuning, using high-quality data generated through an advanced data refinement pipeline. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that DMRetriever achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across all six search intents at every model scale. Moreover, DMRetriever is highly parameter-efficient, with 596M model outperforming baselines over 13.3 X larger and 33M model exceeding baselines with only 7.6% of their parameters. All codes, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/KaiYin97/DMRETRIEVER

Kai Yin, Bo Li, Chengkai Liu et al.

In the field of crisis/disaster informatics, social media is increasingly being used for improving situational awareness to inform response and relief efforts. Efficient and accurate text classification tools have been a focal area of investigation in crisis informatics. However, current methods mostly rely on single-label text classification models, which fails to capture different insights embedded in dynamic and multifaceted disaster-related social media data. This study introduces a novel approach to disaster text classification by enhancing a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) through instruction fine-tuning targeted for multi-label classification of disaster-related tweets. Our methodology involves creating a comprehensive instruction dataset from disaster-related tweets, which is then used to fine-tune an open-source LLM, thereby embedding it with disaster-specific knowledge. This fine-tuned model can classify multiple aspects of disaster-related information simultaneously, such as the type of event, informativeness, and involvement of human aid, significantly improving the utility of social media data for situational awareness in disasters. The results demonstrate that this approach enhances the categorization of critical information from social media posts, thereby facilitating a more effective deployment for situational awareness during emergencies. This research paves the way for more advanced, adaptable, and robust disaster management tools, leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to improve real-time situational awareness and response strategies in disaster scenarios.

Ankit Ramchandani, Chao Fan, Ali Mostafavi

In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to forecast the range of increase in COVID-19 infected cases in future days and we present a novel method to compute equidimensional representations of multivariate time series and multivariate spatial time series data. Using this novel method, the proposed model can both take in a large number of heterogeneous features, such as census data, intra-county mobility, inter-county mobility, social distancing data, past growth of infection, among others, and learn complex interactions between these features. Using data collected from various sources, we estimate the range of increase in infected cases seven days into the future for all U.S. counties. In addition, we use the model to identify the most influential features for prediction of the growth of infection. We also analyze pairs of features and estimate the amount of observed second-order interaction between them. Experiments show that the proposed model obtains satisfactory predictive performance and fairly interpretable feature analysis results; hence, the proposed model could complement the standard epidemiological models for national-level surveillance of pandemics, such as COVID-19. The results and findings obtained from the deep learning model could potentially inform policymakers and researchers in devising effective mitigation and response strategies. To fast-track further development and experimentation, the code used to implement the proposed model has been made fully open source.

Yu-Hsuan Ho, Longxiang Li, Ali Mostafavi

Street view imagery, aided by advancements in image quality and accessibility, has emerged as a valuable resource for urban analytics research. Recent studies have explored its potential for estimating lowest floor elevation (LFE), offering a scalable alternative to traditional on-site measurements, crucial for assessing properties' flood risk and damage extent. While existing methods rely on object detection, the introduction of image segmentation has broadened street view images' utility for LFE estimation, although challenges still remain in segmentation quality and capability to distinguish front doors from other doors. To address these challenges in LFE estimation, this study integrates the Segment Anything model, a segmentation foundation model, with vision language models to conduct text-prompt image segmentation on street view images for LFE estimation. By evaluating various vision language models, integration methods, and text prompts, we identify the most suitable model for street view image analytics and LFE estimation tasks, thereby improving the availability of the current LFE estimation model based on image segmentation from 33% to 56% of properties. Remarkably, our proposed method significantly enhances the availability of LFE estimation to almost all properties in which the front door is visible in the street view image. Also the findings present the first baseline and comparison of various vision models of street view image-based LFE estimation. The model and findings not only contribute to advancing street view image segmentation for urban analytics but also provide a novel approach for image segmentation tasks for other civil engineering and infrastructure analytics tasks.

Chia-Fu Liu, Lipai Huang, Kai Yin et al.

Near-real time estimation of damage to buildings and infrastructure, referred to as damage nowcasting in this study, is crucial for empowering emergency responders to make informed decisions regarding evacuation orders and infrastructure repair priorities during disaster response and recovery. Here, we introduce FloodDamageCast, a machine learning framework tailored for property flood damage nowcasting. The framework leverages heterogeneous data to predict residential flood damage at a resolution of 500 meters by 500 meters within Harris County, Texas, during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. To deal with data imbalance, FloodDamageCast incorporates a generative adversarial networks-based data augmentation coupled with an efficient machine learning model. The results demonstrate the model's ability to identify high-damage spatial areas that would be overlooked by baseline models. Insights gleaned from flood damage nowcasting can assist emergency responders to more efficiently identify repair needs, allocate resources, and streamline on-the-ground inspections, thereby saving both time and effort.

Yiming Xiao, Ali Mostafavi

Rapid, accurate, and descriptive building damage assessment is critical for directing post-disaster resources, yet current automated methods typically provide only binary (damaged/undamaged) or ordinal severity scales. This paper introduces DamageCAT, a framework that advances damage assessment through typology-based categorical classifications. We contribute: (1) the BD-TypoSAT dataset containing satellite image triplets from Hurricane Ida with four damage categories - partial roof damage, total roof damage, partial structural collapse, and total structural collapse - and (2) a hierarchical U-Net-based transformer architecture for processing pre- and post-disaster image pairs. Our model achieves 0.737 IoU and 0.846 F1-score overall, with cross-event evaluation demonstrating transferability across Hurricane Harvey, Florence, and Michael data. While performance varies across damage categories due to class imbalance, the framework shows that typology-based classifications can provide more actionable damage assessments than traditional severity-based approaches, enabling targeted emergency response and resource allocation.

Junwei Ma, Bo Li, Olufemi A. Omitaomu et al.

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

Xiangpeng Li, Ali Mostafavi

There is a limitation in the literature of data-driven analyses for the ex-post evaluation of community risk and resilience, particularly using features related to the performance of coupled human-infrastructure systems. To address this gap, in this study we created a machine learning-based method for the ex-post assessment of community risk and resilience and their interplay based on features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance. Utilizing feature groups related to population protective actions, infrastructure/building performance features, and recovery features, we examined the risk and resilience performance of communities in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. These features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance were processed using the K-means clustering method to classify census block groups into four distinct clusters then, based on feature analysis, these clusters were labeled and designated into four quadrants of risk-resilience archetypes. Finally, we analyzed the disparities in risk-resilience status of spatial areas across different clusters as well as different income groups. The findings unveil the risk-resilience status of spatial areas shaped by their coupled human-infrastructure systems performance and their interactions. The results also inform about features that contribute to high resilience in high-risk areas. For example, the results indicate that in high-risk areas, evacuation rates contributed to a greater resilience, while in low-risk areas, preparedness contributed to greater resilience.

Zhewei Liu, Kai Yin, Ali Mostafavi

Inspired by ideas from health risk assessment, this paper presents a new perspective for flood risk assessment. The proposed perspective focuses on three pillars for examining flood risk: (1) inherent susceptibility, (2) mitigation strategies, and (3) external stressors. These pillars collectively encompass the physical and environmental characteristics of urban areas, the effectiveness of human-intervention measures, and the influence of uncontrollable external factors, offering a fresh point of view for decoding flood risks. For each pillar, we delineate its individual contributions to flood risk and illustrate their interactive and overall impact. The three-pillars model embodies a shift in focus from the quest to precisely model and quantify flood risk to evaluating pathways to high flood risk. The shift in perspective is intended to alleviate the quest for quantifying and predicting flood risk at fine resolutions as a panacea for enhanced flood risk management. The decomposition of flood risk pathways into the three intertwined pillars (i.e., inherent factors, mitigation factors, and external factors) enables evaluation of changes in factors within each pillar enhance and exacerbate flood risk, creating a platform from which to inform plans, decisions, and actions. Building on this foundation, we argue that a flood risk pathway analysis approach, which examines the individual and collective impacts of inherent factors, mitigation strategies, and external stressors, is essential for a nuanced evaluation of flood risk. Accordingly, the proposed perspective could complement the existing frameworks and approaches for flood risk assessment.

Lipai Huang, Kai Yin, Chia-Fu Liu et al.

R2RAG-Flood is a reasoning-reinforced, training-free retrieval-augmented generation framework for post-storm property damage nowcasting. Building on an existing supervised tabular predictor, the framework constructs a reasoning-centric knowledge base composed of labeled tabular records, where each sample includes structured predictors, a compact natural language text-mode summary, and a model-generated reasoning trajectory. During inference, R2RAG-Flood issues context-augmented prompts that retrieve and condition on relevant reasoning trajectories from nearby geospatial neighbors and canonical class prototypes, enabling the large language model backbone to emulate and adapt prior reasoning rather than learn new task-specific parameters. Predictions follow a two-stage procedure that first determines property damage occurrence and then refines severity within a three-level Property Damage Extent categorization, with a conditional downgrade step to correct over-predicted severity. In a case study of Harris County, Texas at the 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code scale, the supervised tabular baseline trained directly on structured predictors achieves 0.714 overall accuracy and 0.859 damage class accuracy for medium and high damage classes. Across seven large language model backbones, R2RAG-Flood attains 0.613 to 0.668 overall accuracy and 0.757 to 0.896 damage class accuracy, approaching the supervised baseline while additionally producing a structured rationale for each prediction. Using a severity-per-cost efficiency metric derived from API pricing and GPU instance costs, lightweight R2RAG-Flood variants demonstrate substantially higher efficiency than both the supervised tabular baseline and larger language models, while requiring no task-specific training or fine-tuning.

Chenyue Liu, Ali Mostafavi

Current wildfire risk assessments rely on coarse hazard maps and opaque machine learning models that optimize regional accuracy while sacrificing interpretability at the decision scale. WildfireGenome addresses these gaps through three components: (1) fusion of seven federal wildfire indicators into a sign-aligned, PCA-based composite risk label at H3 Level-8 resolution; (2) Random Forest classification of local wildfire risk; and (3) SHAP and ICE/PDP analyses to expose county-specific nonlinear driver relationships. Across seven ecologically diverse U.S. counties, models achieve accuracies of 0.755-0.878 and Quadratic Weighted Kappa up to 0.951, with principal components explaining 87-94% of indicator variance. Transfer tests show reliable performance between ecologically similar regions but collapse across dissimilar contexts. Explanations consistently highlight needleleaf forest cover and elevation as dominant drivers, with risk rising sharply at 30-40% needleleaf coverage. WildfireGenome advances wildfire risk assessment from regional prediction to interpretable, decision-scale analytics that guide vegetation management, zoning, and infrastructure planning.

Bo Li, Junwei Ma, Kai Yin et al.

The escalating frequency and severity of disasters routinely overwhelm traditional response capabilities, exposing critical vulnerability in disaster management. Current practices are hindered by fragmented data streams, siloed technologies, resource constraints, and the erosion of institutional memory, which collectively impede timely and effective decision making. This study introduces Disaster Copilot, a vision for a multi-agent artificial intelligence system designed to overcome these systemic challenges by unifying specialized AI tools within a collaborative framework. The proposed architecture utilizes a central orchestrator to coordinate diverse sub-agents, each specializing in critical domains such as predictive risk analytics, situational awareness, and impact assessment. By integrating multi-modal data, the system delivers a holistic, real-time operational picture and serve as the essential AI backbone required to advance Disaster Digital Twins from passive models to active, intelligent environments. Furthermore, it ensures functionality in resource-limited environments through on-device orchestration and incorporates mechanisms to capture institutional knowledge, mitigating the impact of staff turnover. We detail the system architecture and propose a three-phased roadmap emphasizing the parallel growth of technology, organizational capacity, and human-AI teaming. Disaster Copilot offers a transformative vision, fostering collective human-machine intelligence to build more adaptive, data-driven and resilient communities.

Yiming Xiao, Archit Gupta, Miguel Esparza et al.

Building-level occupancy after disasters is vital for triage, inspections, utility re-energization, and equitable resource allocation. Overhead imagery provides rapid coverage but often misses facade and access cues that determine habitability, while street-view imagery captures those details but is sparse and difficult to align with parcels. We present FacadeTrack, a street-level, language-guided framework that links panoramic video to parcels, rectifies views to facades, and elicits interpretable attributes (for example, entry blockage, temporary coverings, localized debris) that drive two decision strategies: a transparent one-stage rule and a two-stage design that separates perception from conservative reasoning. Evaluated across two post-Hurricane Helene surveys, the two-stage approach achieves a precision of 0.927, a recall of 0.781, and an F-1 score of 0.848, compared with the one-stage baseline at a precision of 0.943, a recall of 0.728, and an F-1 score of 0.822. Beyond accuracy, intermediate attributes and spatial diagnostics reveal where and why residual errors occur, enabling targeted quality control. The pipeline provides auditable, scalable occupancy assessments suitable for integration into geospatial and emergency-management workflows.

Bo Li, Ali Mostafavi

The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.

Zhimeng Jiang, Xiaotian Han, Chao Fan et al.

Despite recent advances in achieving fair representations and predictions through regularization, adversarial debiasing, and contrastive learning in graph neural networks (GNNs), the working mechanism (i.e., message passing) behind GNNs inducing unfairness issue remains unknown. In this work, we theoretically and experimentally demonstrate that representative aggregation in message-passing schemes accumulates bias in node representation due to topology bias induced by graph topology. Thus, a \textsf{F}air \textsf{M}essage \textsf{P}assing (FMP) scheme is proposed to aggregate useful information from neighbors but minimize the effect of topology bias in a unified framework considering graph smoothness and fairness objectives. The proposed FMP is effective, transparent, and compatible with back-propagation training. An acceleration approach on gradient calculation is also adopted to improve algorithm efficiency. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in effectively and efficiently mitigating bias on three real-world datasets.

Hamed Farahmand, Yuanchang Xu, Ali Mostafavi

The objective of this study is to develop and test a novel structured deep-learning modeling framework for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial-temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold; first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features such as rainfall intensity and water elevation, and human-sensed data such as flood reports and fluctuations of human activity. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus on the most influential features that vary dynamically. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the case study and Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Results indicate that the model provides superior performance for the nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census tract level, with a precision of 0.808 and a recall of 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with some other novel models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting,

Chao Fan, Yang Yang, Ali Mostafavi

In this study, we propose using a neural embedding model-graph neural network (GNN)- that leverages the heterogeneous features of urban areas and their interactions captured by human mobility network to obtain vector representations of these areas. Using large-scale high-resolution mobility data sets from millions of aggregated and anonymized mobile phone users in 16 metropolitan counties in the United States, we demonstrate that our embeddings encode complex relationships among features related to urban components (such as distribution of facilities) and population attributes and activities. The spatial gradient in each direction from city center to suburbs is measured using clustered representations and the shared characteristics among urban areas in the same cluster. Furthermore, we show that embeddings generated by a model trained on a different county can capture 50% to 60% of the emergent spatial structure in another county, allowing us to make cross-county comparisons in a quantitative way. Our GNN-based framework overcomes the limitations of previous methods used for examining spatial structures and is highly scalable. The findings reveal non-linear relationships among urban components and anisotropic spatial gradients in cities. Since the identified spatial structures and gradients capture the combined effects of various mechanisms, such as segregation, disparate facility distribution, and human mobility, the findings could help identify the limitations of the current city structure to inform planning decisions and policies. Also, the model and findings set the stage for a variety of research in urban planning, engineering and social science through integrated understanding of how the complex interactions between urban components and population activities and attributes shape the spatial structures in cities.

Faxi Yuan, William Mobley, Hamed Farahmand et al.

The objective of this study is to predict road flooding risks based on topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features using machine learning models. Predictive flood monitoring of road network flooding status plays an essential role in community hazard mitigation, preparedness, and response activities. Existing studies related to the estimation of road inundations either lack observed road inundation data for model validations or focus mainly on road inundation exposure assessment based on flood maps. This study addresses this limitation by using crowdsourced and fine-grained traffic data as an indicator of road inundation, and topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features as predictor variables. Two tree-based machine learning models (random forest and AdaBoost) were then tested and trained for predicting road inundations in the contexts of 2017 Hurricane Harvey and 2019 Tropical Storm Imelda in Harris County, Texas. The findings from Hurricane Harvey indicate that precipitation is the most important feature for predicting road inundation susceptibility, and that topographic features are more essential than hydrologic features for predicting road inundations in both storm cases. The random forest and AdaBoost models had relatively high AUC scores (0.860 and 0.810 for Harvey respectively and 0.790 and 0.720 for Imelda respectively) with the random forest model performing better in both cases. The random forest model showed stable performance for Harvey, while varying significantly for Imelda. This study advances the emerging field of smart flood resilience in terms of predictive flood risk mapping at the road level. For example, such models could help impacted communities and emergency management agencies develop better preparedness and response strategies with improved situational awareness of road inundation likelihood as an extreme weather event unfolds.

Faxi Yuan, Yuanchang Xu, Qingchun Li et al.

The objective of this study is to predict the near-future flooding status of road segments based on their own and adjacent road segments current status through the use of deep learning framework on fine-grained traffic data. Predictive flood monitoring for situational awareness of road network status plays a critical role to support crisis response activities such as evaluation of the loss of access to hospitals and shelters. Existing studies related to near-future prediction of road network flooding status at road segment level are missing. Using fine-grained traffic speed data related to road sections, this study designed and implemented three spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) models to predict road network status during flood events at the road segment level in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas, USA). Model 1 consists of two spatio-temporal blocks considering the adjacency and distance between road segments, while Model 2 contains an additional elevation block to account for elevation difference between road segments. Model 3 includes three blocks for considering the adjacency and the product of distance and elevation difference between road segments. The analysis tested the STGCN models and evaluated their prediction performance. Our results indicated that Model 1 and Model 2 have reliable and accurate performance for predicting road network flooding status in near future (e.g., 2-4 hours) with model precision and recall values larger than 98% and 96%, respectively. With reliable road network status predictions in floods, the proposed model can benefit affected communities to avoid flooded roads and the emergency management agencies to implement evacuation and relief resource delivery plans.

Shangjia Dong, Tianbo Yu, Hamed Farahmand et al.

The objective of this study is to create and test a hybrid deep learning model, FastGRNN-FCN (Fast, Accurate, Stable and Tiny Gated Recurrent Neural Network-Fully Convolutional Network), for urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data. The study used Harris County, Texas as the testbed, and obtained channel sensor data from three historical flood events (e.g., 2016 Tax Day Flood, 2016 Memorial Day flood, and 2017 Hurricane Harvey Flood) for training and validating the hybrid deep learning model. The flood data are divided into a multivariate time series and used as the model input. Each input comprises nine variables, including information of the studied channel sensor and its predecessor and successor sensors in the channel network. Precision-recall curve and F-measure are used to identify the optimal set of model parameters. The optimal model with a weight of 1 and a critical threshold of 0.59 are obtained through one hundred iterations based on examining different weights and thresholds. The test accuracy and F-measure eventually reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively. The model is then tested in predicting the 2019 Imelda flood in Houston and the results show an excellent match with the empirical flood. The results show that the model enables accurate prediction of the spatial-temporal flood propagation and recession and provides emergency response officials with a predictive flood warning tool for prioritizing the flood response and resource allocation strategies.