Rares Grozavescu

Rares Grozavescu, Pengyu Zhang, Mark Girolami et al.

We investigate the Continuous-Time Koopman Autoencoder (CT-KAE) as a lightweight surrogate model for long-horizon ocean state forecasting in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) system. By projecting nonlinear dynamics into a latent space governed by a linear ordinary differential equation, the model enforces structured and interpretable temporal evolution while enabling temporally resolution-invariant forecasting via a matrix exponential formulation. Across 2083-day rollouts, CT-KAE exhibits bounded error growth and stable large-scale statistics, in contrast to autoregressive Transformer baselines which exhibit gradual error amplification and energy drift over long rollouts. While fine-scale turbulent structures are partially dissipated, bulk energy spectra, enstrophy evolution, and autocorrelation structure remain consistent over long horizons. The model achieves orders-of-magnitude faster inference compared to the numerical solver, suggesting that continuous-time Koopman surrogates offer a promising backbone for efficient and stable physical-machine learning climate models.

Rares Grozavescu, Pengyu Zhang, Etienne Meunier et al.

Data-driven surrogate models have emerged as powerful tools for accelerating the simulation of turbulent flows. However, classical approaches which perform autoregressive rollouts often trade off between strong short-term accuracy and long-horizon stability. Koopman autoencoders, inspired by Koopman operator theory, provide a physics-based alternative by mapping nonlinear dynamics into a latent space where linear evolution is conducted. In practice, most existing formulations operate in a discrete-time setting, limiting temporal flexibility. In this work, we introduce a continuous-time Koopman framework that models latent evolution through numerical integration schemes. By allowing variable timesteps at inference, the method demonstrates robustness to temporal resolution and generalizes beyond training regimes. In addition, the learned dynamics closely adhere to the analytical matrix exponential solution, enabling efficient long-horizon forecasting. We evaluate the approach on classical CFD benchmarks and report accuracy, stability, and extrapolation properties.