Qadeer Ahmed

Pei Yu Chang, Vishnu Renganathan, Qadeer Ahmed

This paper presents a hybrid control framework with a risk-budgeted monitor for safety-certified autonomous driving. A sliding-window monitor tracks insufficient barrier residuals and triggers switching from a relaxed control barrier function (R-CBF) to a more conservative conditional value-at-risk CBF (CVaR-CBF) when the safety margin deteriorates. Two real-time triggers are considered: feasibility-triggered (FT), which activates CVaR-CBF when the R-CBF problem is reported infeasible, and quality-triggered (QT), which switches when the residual falls below a prescribed safety margin. The framework is evaluated with model predictive control (MPC) under vehicle localization noise and obstacle position uncertainty across multiple AV-pedestrian interaction scenarios with 1,500 Monte Carlo runs. In the most challenging case with 5 m pedestrian detection uncertainty, the proposed method achieves a 94--96\% collision-free success rate over 300 trials while maintaining the lowest mean cross-track error (CTE = 3.2--3.6 m), indicating faster trajectory recovery after obstacle avoidance and a favorable balance between safety and performance.

Pei Yu Chang, Qizhe Xu, Vishnu Renganathan et al.

Safe control in dynamic traffic environments remains a major challenge for autonomous vehicles (AVs), as ego vehicle and obstacle states are inherently affected by sensing noise and estimation uncertainty. However, existing studies have not sufficiently addressed how uncertain multi-modal sensing information can be systematically incorporated into tail-risk-aware safety-critical control. To address this gap, this paper proposes a risk-aware safe control framework that integrates probabilistic state estimation with a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) control barrier function (CBF) safety filter. Obstacle detections from cameras, LiDAR, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication are combined using a Wasserstein barycenter (WB) to obtain a probabilistic state estimate. A model predictive controller generates the nominal control, which is then filtered through a CVaR-CBF quadratic program to enforce risk-aware safety constraints. The approach is evaluated through numerical studies and further validated on a full-scale AV. Results demonstrate improved safety and robustness over a baseline MPC-CBF design, with an average improvement of 12.7\% in success rate across the evaluated scenarios.

Mayur Patil, Qadeer Ahmed, Shawn Midlam-Mohler

Traffic flow prediction is a big challenge for transportation authorities as it helps plan and develop better infrastructure. State-of-the-art models often struggle to consider the data in the best way possible, as well as intrinsic uncertainties and the actual physics of the traffic. In this study, we propose a novel framework to incorporate travel times between stations into a weighted adjacency matrix of a Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture with information from traffic stations based on their data availability. To handle uncertainty, we utilized the Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) method that adjusts prediction intervals based on real-time validation residuals. To validate our results, we model a microscopic traffic scenario and perform a Monte-Carlo simulation to get a travel time distribution for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT), and this distribution is compared against the real-world data. Experiments show that the proposed model outperformed the next-best model by approximately 24% in MAE and 8% in RMSE and validation showed the simulated travel time closely matches the 95th percentile of the observed travel time value.

Mayur Patil, Qadeer Ahmed, Shawn Midlam-Mohler et al.

Reliable multi-horizon traffic forecasting is challenging because network conditions are stochastic, incident disruptions are intermittent, and effective spatial dependencies vary across time-of-day patterns. This study is conducted on the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) traffic count data and corresponding ODOT crash records. This work utilizes a Spatio-Temporal Transformer (STT) model with Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) to produce multi-horizon forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. We propose a piecewise Coefficient of Variation (CV) strategy that models hour-to-hour traveltime variability using a log-normal distribution, enabling the construction of a per-hour dynamic adjacency matrix. We further perturb edge weights using incident-related severity signals derived from the ODOT crash dataset that comprises incident clearance time, weather conditions, speed violations, work zones, and roadway functional class, to capture localized disruptions and peak/off-peak transitions. This dynamic graph construction replaces a fixed-CV assumption and better represents changing traffic conditions within the forecast window. For validation, we generate extended trips via multi-hour loop runs on the Columbus, Ohio, network in SUMO simulations and apply a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain travel-time distributions for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT). Experiments demonstrate improved long-horizon accuracy and well-calibrated prediction intervals compared to other baseline methods.

Mayur Patil, Qadeer Ahmed, Shawn Midlam-Mohler

Traffic flow forecasting is essential for managing congestion, improving safety, and optimizing various transportation systems. However, it remains a prevailing challenge due to the stochastic nature of urban traffic and environmental factors. Better predictions require models capable of accommodating the traffic variability influenced by multiple dynamic and complex interdependent factors. In this work, we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework to address the stochasticity by leveraging adaptive adjacency matrices using log-normal distributions and Coefficient of Variation (CV) values to reflect real-world travel time variability. Additionally, weather factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation adjust edge weights and enable GNN to capture evolving spatio-temporal dependencies across traffic stations. This enhancement over the static adjacency matrix allows the model to adapt effectively to traffic stochasticity and changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, we utilize the Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) framework to provide reliable uncertainty quantification, achieving target coverage while maintaining acceptable prediction intervals. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, in comparison with baseline methods, showed better prediction accuracy and uncertainty bounds. We, then, validate this method by constructing traffic scenarios in SUMO and applying Monte-Carlo simulation to derive a travel time distribution for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT) to reflect real-world variability. The simulated mean travel time of the VUT falls within the intervals defined by INRIX historical data, verifying the model's robustness.

Wafeeq Jaleel, Md Ragib Rownak, Athar Hanif et al.

As hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) gain traction in heavy-duty trucks, adaptive and efficient energy management is critical for reducing fuel consumption while maintaining battery charge for long operation times. We present a new reinforcement learning (RL) framework based on the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm to optimize engine control in series HEVs. We reformulate the control task as a sequential decision-making problem and enhance SAC by incorporating Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Decision Transformers (DTs) into both actor and critic networks to capture temporal dependencies and improve planning over time. To evaluate robustness and generalization, we train the models under diverse initial battery states, drive cycle durations, power demands, and input sequence lengths. Experiments show that the SAC agent with a DT-based actor and GRU-based critic was within 1.8% of Dynamic Programming (DP) in fuel savings on the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HFET) cycle, while the SAC agent with GRUs in both actor and critic networks, and FFN actor-critic agent were within 3.16% and 3.43%, respectively. On unseen drive cycles (US06 and Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT) cruise segment), generalized sequence-aware agents consistently outperformed feedforward network (FFN)-based agents, highlighting their adaptability and robustness in real-world settings.

Robert Frenken, Sidra Ghayour Bhatti, Hanqin Zhang et al.

The Controller Area Network (CAN) protocol is a standard for in-vehicle communication but remains susceptible to cyber-attacks due to its lack of built-in security. This paper presents a multi-stage intrusion detection framework leveraging unsupervised anomaly detection and supervised graph learning tailored for automotive CAN traffic. Our architecture combines a Variational Graph Autoencoder (VGAE) for structural anomaly detection with a Knowledge-Distilled Graph Attention Network (KD-GAT) for robust attack classification. CAN bus activity is encoded as graph sequences to model temporal and relational dependencies. The pipeline applies VGAE-based selective undersampling to address class imbalance, followed by GAT classification with optional score-level fusion. The compact student GAT achieves 96% parameter reduction compared to the teacher model while maintaining strong predictive performance. Experiments on six public CAN intrusion datasets--Car-Hacking, Car-Survival, and can-train-and-test--demonstrate competitive accuracy and efficiency, with average improvements of 16.2% in F1-score over existing methods, particularly excelling on highly imbalanced datasets with up to 55% F1-score improvements.

Robert Frenken, Sidra Ghayour Bhatti, Hanqin Zhang et al.

The Controller Area Network (CAN) protocol is widely adopted for in-vehicle communication but lacks inherent security mechanisms, making it vulnerable to cyberattacks. This paper introduces KD-GAT, an intrusion detection framework that combines Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with knowledge distillation (KD) to enhance detection accuracy while reducing computational complexity. In our approach, CAN traffic is represented as graphs using a sliding window to capture temporal and relational patterns. A multi-layer GAT with jumping knowledge aggregation acting as the teacher model, while a compact student GAT--only 6.32% the size of the teacher--is trained via a two-phase process involving supervised pretraining and knowledge distillation with both soft and hard label supervision. Experiments on three benchmark datasets--Car-Hacking, Car-Survival, and can-train-and-test demonstrate that both teacher and student models achieve strong results, with the student model attaining 99.97% and 99.31% accuracy on Car-Hacking and Car-Survival, respectively. However, significant class imbalance in can-train-and-test has led to reduced performance for both models on this dataset. Addressing this imbalance remains an important direction for future work.