Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Sheng Liu, Xu Zhang, Nitesh Sekhar et al. · amazon-science

Empirical studies suggest that machine learning models trained with empirical risk minimization (ERM) often rely on attributes that may be spuriously correlated with the class labels. Such models typically lead to poor performance during inference for data lacking such correlations. In this work, we explicitly consider a situation where potential spurious correlations are present in the majority of training data. In contrast with existing approaches, which use the ERM model outputs to detect the samples without spurious correlations and either heuristically upweight or upsample those samples, we propose the logit correction (LC) loss, a simple yet effective improvement on the softmax cross-entropy loss, to correct the sample logit. We demonstrate that minimizing the LC loss is equivalent to maximizing the group-balanced accuracy, so the proposed LC could mitigate the negative impacts of spurious correlations. Our extensive experimental results further reveal that the proposed LC loss outperforms state-of-the-art solutions on multiple popular benchmarks by a large margin, an average 5.5\% absolute improvement, without access to spurious attribute labels. LC is also competitive with oracle methods that make use of the attribute labels. Code is available at https://github.com/shengliu66/LC.

Emmanuel Candes, Carlos Fernandez-Granda

This paper develops a mathematical theory of super-resolution. Broadly speaking, super-resolution is the problem of recovering the fine details of an object---the high end of its spectrum---from coarse scale information only---from samples at the low end of the spectrum. Suppose we have many point sources at unknown locations in $[0,1]$ and with unknown complex-valued amplitudes. We only observe Fourier samples of this object up until a frequency cut-off $f_c$. We show that one can super-resolve these point sources with infinite precision---i.e. recover the exact locations and amplitudes---by solving a simple convex optimization problem, which can essentially be reformulated as a semidefinite program. This holds provided that the distance between sources is at least $2/f_c$. This result extends to higher dimensions and other models. In one dimension for instance, it is possible to recover a piecewise smooth function by resolving the discontinuity points with infinite precision as well. We also show that the theory and methods are robust to noise. In particular, in the discrete setting we develop some theoretical results explaining how the accuracy of the super-resolved signal is expected to degrade when both the noise level and the {\em super-resolution factor} vary.

Emmanuel Candes, Carlos Fernandez-Granda

This paper studies the recovery of a superposition of point sources from noisy bandlimited data. In the fewest possible words, we only have information about the spectrum of an object in a low-frequency band bounded by a certain cut-off frequency and seek to obtain a higher resolution estimate by extrapolating the spectrum up to a higher frequency. We show that as long as the sources are separated by twice the inverse of the cut-off frequency, solving a simple convex program produces a stable estimate in the sense that the approximation error between the higher-resolution reconstruction and the truth is proportional to the noise level times the square of the super-resolution factor (SRF), which is the ratio between the desired high frequency and the cut-off frequency of the data.

Kangning Liu, Weicheng Zhu, Yiqiu Shen et al.

Learning representations for individual instances when only bag-level labels are available is a fundamental challenge in multiple instance learning (MIL). Recent works have shown promising results using contrastive self-supervised learning (CSSL), which learns to push apart representations corresponding to two different randomly-selected instances. Unfortunately, in real-world applications such as medical image classification, there is often class imbalance, so randomly-selected instances mostly belong to the same majority class, which precludes CSSL from learning inter-class differences. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework, Iterative Self-paced Supervised Contrastive Learning for MIL Representations (ItS2CLR), which improves the learned representation by exploiting instance-level pseudo labels derived from the bag-level labels. The framework employs a novel self-paced sampling strategy to ensure the accuracy of pseudo labels. We evaluate ItS2CLR on three medical datasets, showing that it improves the quality of instance-level pseudo labels and representations, and outperforms existing MIL methods in terms of both bag and instance level accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/Kangningthu/ItS2CLR

Xiao Li, Sheng Liu, Jinxin Zhou et al.

With the ever-increasing complexity of large-scale pre-trained models coupled with a shortage of labeled data for downstream training, transfer learning has become the primary approach in many fields, including natural language processing, computer vision, and multi-modal learning. Despite recent progress, the fine-tuning process for large-scale pre-trained models in vision still mostly relies on trial and error. This work investigates the relationship between neural collapse (NC) and transfer learning for classification problems. NC is an intriguing while prevalent phenomenon that has been recently discovered in terms of the final-layer features and linear classifiers of trained neural networks. Specifically, during the terminal phase of training, NC implies that the variability of the features within each class diminishes to zero, while the means of features between classes are maximally and equally distanced. In this work, we examine the NC attributes of pre-trained models on both downstream and source data for transfer learning, and we find strong correlation between feature collapse and downstream performance. In particular, we discovered a systematic pattern that emerges when linear probing pre-trained models on downstream training data: the more feature collapse of pre-trained models on downstream training data, the higher the transfer accuracy. Additionally, we also studied the relationship between NC and transfer accuracy on the source data. Moreover, these findings allow us to develop a principled, parameter-efficient fine-tuning method that employs skip-connection to induce the last-layer feature collapse on downstream data. Our proposed fine-tuning methods deliver good performances while reducing fine-tuning parameters by at least 90% and mitigating overfitting in situations especially when the downstream data is scarce.

Carlos Fernandez-Granda

We study the problem of super-resolving a superposition of point sources from noisy low-pass data with a cut-off frequency f. Solving a tractable convex program is shown to locate the elements of the support with high precision as long as they are separated by 2/f and the noise level is small with respect to the amplitude of the signal.

Adria Marcos-Morales, Matan Leibovich, Sreyas Mohan et al.

Unsupervised denoising is a crucial challenge in real-world imaging applications. Unsupervised deep-learning methods have demonstrated impressive performance on benchmarks based on synthetic noise. However, no metrics are available to evaluate these methods in an unsupervised fashion. This is highly problematic for the many practical applications where ground-truth clean images are not available. In this work, we propose two novel metrics: the unsupervised mean squared error (MSE) and the unsupervised peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), which are computed using only noisy data. We provide a theoretical analysis of these metrics, showing that they are asymptotically consistent estimators of the supervised MSE and PSNR. Controlled numerical experiments with synthetic noise confirm that they provide accurate approximations in practice. We validate our approach on real-world data from two imaging modalities: videos in raw format and transmission electron microscopy. Our results demonstrate that the proposed metrics enable unsupervised evaluation of denoising methods based exclusively on noisy data.

Weicheng Zhu, Carlos Fernandez-Granda, Narges Razavian

Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) has a high recurrence and metastasis rate. Factors influencing recurrence and metastasis are currently unknown and there are no distinct histopathological or morphological features indicating the risks of recurrence and metastasis in LSCC. Our study focuses on the recurrence prediction of LSCC based on H&E-stained histopathological whole-slide images (WSI). Due to the small size of LSCC cohorts in terms of patients with available recurrence information, standard end-to-end learning with various convolutional neural networks for this task tends to overfit. Also, the predictions made by these models are hard to interpret. Histopathology WSIs are typically very large and are therefore processed as a set of smaller tiles. In this work, we propose a novel conditional self-supervised learning (SSL) method to learn representations of WSI at the tile level first, and leverage clustering algorithms to identify the tiles with similar histopathological representations. The resulting representations and clusters from self-supervision are used as features of a survival model for recurrence prediction at the patient level. Using two publicly available datasets from TCGA and CPTAC, we show that our LSCC recurrence prediction survival model outperforms both LSCC pathological stage-based approach and machine learning baselines such as multiple instance learning. The proposed method also enables us to explain the recurrence histopathological risk factors via the derived clusters. This can help pathologists derive new hypotheses regarding morphological features associated with LSCC recurrence.

Boyang Yu, Aakash Kaku, Kangning Liu et al.

Automatic assessment of impairment and disease severity is a key challenge in data-driven medicine. We propose a novel framework to address this challenge, which leverages AI models trained exclusively on healthy individuals. The COnfidence-Based chaRacterization of Anomalies (COBRA) score exploits the decrease in confidence of these models when presented with impaired or diseased patients to quantify their deviation from the healthy population. We applied the COBRA score to address a key limitation of current clinical evaluation of upper-body impairment in stroke patients. The gold-standard Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) requires in-person administration by a trained assessor for 30-45 minutes, which restricts monitoring frequency and precludes physicians from adapting rehabilitation protocols to the progress of each patient. The COBRA score, computed automatically in under one minute, is shown to be strongly correlated with the FMA on an independent test cohort for two different data modalities: wearable sensors ($ρ= 0.845$, 95% CI [0.743,0.908]) and video ($ρ= 0.746$, 95% C.I [0.594, 0.847]). To demonstrate the generalizability of the approach to other conditions, the COBRA score was also applied to quantify severity of knee osteoarthritis from magnetic-resonance imaging scans, again achieving significant correlation with an independent clinical assessment ($ρ= 0.644$, 95% C.I [0.585,0.696]).

Weicheng Zhu, Sheng Liu, Carlos Fernandez-Granda et al.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful technique for learning rich representations from unlabeled data. The data representations are able to capture many underlying attributes of data, and be useful in downstream prediction tasks. In real-world settings, spurious correlations between some attributes (e.g. race, gender and age) and labels for downstream tasks often exist, e.g. cancer is usually more prevalent among elderly patients. In this paper, we investigate SSL in the presence of spurious correlations and show that the SSL training loss can be minimized by capturing only a subset of the conspicuous features relevant to those sensitive attributes, despite the presence of other important predictive features for the downstream tasks. To address this issue, we investigate the learning dynamics of SSL and observe that the learning is slower for samples that conflict with such correlations (e.g. elder patients without cancer). Motivated by these findings, we propose a learning-speed aware SSL (LA-SSL) approach, in which we sample each training data with a probability that is inversely related to its learning speed. We evaluate LA-SSL on three datasets that exhibit spurious correlations between different attributes, demonstrating that it improves the robustness of pretrained representations on downstream classification tasks.

Yuan Yuan, Jesse Rusak, Alexander Merose et al.

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios. Neural emulators promise orders-of-magnitude speedups, yet existing ocean emulators have not combined fine spatial resolution with multi-year autoregressive rollouts. Samudra, the first autoregressive neural ocean emulator to produce multi-decade global rollouts, is limited to $1^\circ$ resolution and exhibits two long-horizon failure modes: \emph{variance collapse}, the loss of temporal variability, and \emph{imprinting artifacts}, in which velocity patterns leak into deep-ocean fields. We present Samudra 2, which introduces a wider U-Net backbone with modified ConvNeXt-style blocks and a reduced block-internal expansion factor, together with a dynamic loss that reweights output channels according to their prediction errors, strengthening gradients for slow-evolving deep-ocean fields. At $1^\circ$, Samudra 2 increases upper-ocean global-mean temperature $R^2$ from 0.56 to 0.87 and reduces deep-ocean temperature error by roughly sevenfold. The same architecture scales to $1/2^\circ$ and $1/4^\circ$ over approximately 8-year autoregressive rollouts, recovering mesoscale eddies and sharp western boundary currents. Running on a single GPU, Samudra 2 enables larger ensembles for sea-level projections, ocean heat uptake, and climate variability studies. We provide code, documentation, and benchmark resources at https://openathena.ai/Ocean_Emulator/.

Brett Bernstein, Carlos Fernandez-Granda

In this work we analyze a convex-programming method for estimating superpositions of point sources or spikes from nonuniform samples of their convolution with a known kernel. We consider a one-dimensional model where the kernel is either a Gaussian function or a Ricker wavelet, inspired by applications in geophysics and imaging. Our analysis establishes that minimizing a continuous counterpart of the $\ell_1$ norm achieves exact recovery of the original spikes as long as (1) the signal support satisfies a minimum-separation condition and (2) there are at least two samples close to every spike. In addition, we derive theoretical guarantees on the robustness of the approach to both dense and sparse additive noise.

Jason Qin, Hans-Hermann Wessels, Carlos Fernandez-Granda et al.

The advancement of novel combinatorial CRISPR screening technologies enables the identification of synergistic gene combinations on a large scale. This is crucial for developing novel and effective combination therapies, but the combinatorial space makes exhaustive experimentation infeasible. We introduce NAIAD, an active learning framework that efficiently discovers optimal gene pairs capable of driving cells toward desired cellular phenotypes. NAIAD leverages single-gene perturbation effects and adaptive gene embeddings that scale with the training data size, mitigating overfitting in small-sample learning while capturing complex gene interactions as more data is collected. Evaluated on four CRISPR combinatorial perturbation datasets totaling over 350,000 genetic interactions, NAIAD, trained on small datasets, outperforms existing models by up to 40\% relative to the second-best. NAIAD's recommendation system prioritizes gene pairs with the maximum predicted effects, resulting in the highest marginal gain in each AI-experiment round and accelerating discovery with fewer CRISPR experimental iterations. Our NAIAD framework (https://github.com/NeptuneBio/NAIAD) improves the identification of novel, effective gene combinations, enabling more efficient CRISPR library design and offering promising applications in genomics research and therapeutic development.

Ebrahim Rasromani, Stella K. Kang, Yanqi Xu et al.

Background: Manual extraction of pancreatic cystic lesion (PCL) features from radiology reports is labor-intensive, limiting large-scale studies needed to advance PCL research. Purpose: To develop and evaluate large language models (LLMs) that automatically extract PCL features from MRI/CT reports and assign risk categories based on guidelines. Materials and Methods: We curated a training dataset of 6,000 abdominal MRI/CT reports (2005-2024) from 5,134 patients that described PCLs. Labels were generated by GPT-4o using chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting to extract PCL and main pancreatic duct features. Two open-source LLMs were fine-tuned using QLoRA on GPT-4o-generated CoT data. Features were mapped to risk categories per institutional guideline based on the 2017 ACR White Paper. Evaluation was performed on 285 held-out human-annotated reports. Model outputs for 100 cases were independently reviewed by three radiologists. Feature extraction was evaluated using exact match accuracy, risk categorization with macro-averaged F1 score, and radiologist-model agreement with Fleiss' Kappa. Results: CoT fine-tuning improved feature extraction accuracy for LLaMA (80% to 97%) and DeepSeek (79% to 98%), matching GPT-4o (97%). Risk categorization F1 scores also improved (LLaMA: 0.95; DeepSeek: 0.94), closely matching GPT-4o (0.97), with no statistically significant differences. Radiologist inter-reader agreement was high (Fleiss' Kappa = 0.888) and showed no statistically significant difference with the addition of DeepSeek-FT-CoT (Fleiss' Kappa = 0.893) or GPT-CoT (Fleiss' Kappa = 0.897), indicating that both models achieved agreement levels on par with radiologists. Conclusion: Fine-tuned open-source LLMs with CoT supervision enable accurate, interpretable, and efficient phenotyping for large-scale PCL research, achieving performance comparable to GPT-4o.

Sheng Liu, Kangning Liu, Weicheng Zhu et al.

Deep learning in the presence of noisy annotations has been studied extensively in classification, but much less in segmentation tasks. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of deep segmentation networks trained on inaccurately-annotated data. We discover a phenomenon that has been previously reported in the context of classification: the networks tend to first fit the clean pixel-level labels during an "early-learning" phase, before eventually memorizing the false annotations. However, in contrast to classification, memorization in segmentation does not arise simultaneously for all semantic categories. Inspired by these findings, we propose a new method for segmentation from noisy annotations with two key elements. First, we detect the beginning of the memorization phase separately for each category during training. This allows us to adaptively correct the noisy annotations in order to exploit early learning. Second, we incorporate a regularization term that enforces consistency across scales to boost robustness against annotation noise. Our method outperforms standard approaches on a medical-imaging segmentation task where noises are synthesized to mimic human annotation errors. It also provides robustness to realistic noisy annotations present in weakly-supervised semantic segmentation, achieving state-of-the-art results on PASCAL VOC 2012. Code is available at https://github.com/Kangningthu/ADELE

Kangning Liu, Yiqiu Shen, Nan Wu et al.

In the last few years, deep learning classifiers have shown promising results in image-based medical diagnosis. However, interpreting the outputs of these models remains a challenge. In cancer diagnosis, interpretability can be achieved by localizing the region of the input image responsible for the output, i.e. the location of a lesion. Alternatively, segmentation or detection models can be trained with pixel-wise annotations indicating the locations of malignant lesions. Unfortunately, acquiring such labels is labor-intensive and requires medical expertise. To overcome this difficulty, weakly-supervised localization can be utilized. These methods allow neural network classifiers to output saliency maps highlighting the regions of the input most relevant to the classification task (e.g. malignant lesions in mammograms) using only image-level labels (e.g. whether the patient has cancer or not) during training. When applied to high-resolution images, existing methods produce low-resolution saliency maps. This is problematic in applications in which suspicious lesions are small in relation to the image size. In this work, we introduce a novel neural network architecture to perform weakly-supervised segmentation of high-resolution images. The proposed model selects regions of interest via coarse-level localization, and then performs fine-grained segmentation of those regions. We apply this model to breast cancer diagnosis with screening mammography, and validate it on a large clinically-realistic dataset. Measured by Dice similarity score, our approach outperforms existing methods by a large margin in terms of localization performance of benign and malignant lesions, relatively improving the performance by 39.6% and 20.0%, respectively. Code and the weights of some of the models are available at https://github.com/nyukat/GLAM

Surya Dheeshjith, Adam Subel, Alistair Adcroft et al.

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long climate simulations with skill across a range of spatiotemporal scales, a particularly important goal for the ocean. Our work builds a skillful global emulator of the ocean component of a state-of-the-art climate model. We emulate key ocean variables, sea surface height, horizontal velocities, temperature, and salinity, across their full depth. We use a modified ConvNeXt UNet architecture trained on multi-depth levels of ocean data. We show that the ocean emulator - Samudra - which exhibits no drift relative to the truth, can reproduce the depth structure of ocean variables and their interannual variability. Samudra is stable for centuries and 150 times faster than the original ocean model. Samudra struggles to capture the correct magnitude of the forcing trends and simultaneously remain stable, requiring further work.

Lucius E. J. Bynum, Aahlad Manas Puli, Diego Herrero-Quevedo et al.

Causal inference and the estimation of causal effects plays a central role in decision-making across many areas, including healthcare and economics. Estimating causal effects typically requires an estimator that is tailored to each problem of interest. But developing estimators can take significant effort for even a single causal inference setting. For example, algorithms for regression-based estimators, propensity score methods, and doubly robust methods were designed across several decades to handle causal estimation with observed confounders. Similarly, several estimators have been developed to exploit instrumental variables (IVs), including two-stage least-squares (TSLS), control functions, and the method-of-moments. In this work, we instead frame causal inference as a dataset-level prediction problem, offloading algorithm design to the learning process. The approach we introduce, called black box causal inference (BBCI), builds estimators in a black-box manner by learning to predict causal effects from sampled dataset-effect pairs. We demonstrate accurate estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs) and conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) with BBCI across several causal inference problems with known identification, including problems with less developed estimators.

Jan Witowski, Ken G. Zeng, Joseph Cappadona et al.

Treatment selection in breast cancer is guided by molecular subtypes and clinical characteristics. However, current tools including genomic assays lack the accuracy required for optimal clinical decision-making. We developed a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach that integrates digital pathology images with clinical data, providing a more robust and effective method for predicting the risk of cancer recurrence in breast cancer patients. Specifically, we utilized a vision transformer pan-cancer foundation model trained with self-supervised learning to extract features from digitized H&E-stained slides. These features were integrated with clinical data to form a multi-modal AI test predicting cancer recurrence and death. The test was developed and evaluated using data from a total of 8,161 female breast cancer patients across 15 cohorts originating from seven countries. Of these, 3,502 patients from five cohorts were used exclusively for evaluation, while the remaining patients were used for training. Our test accurately predicted our primary endpoint, disease-free interval, in the five evaluation cohorts (C-index: 0.71 [0.68-0.75], HR: 3.63 [3.02-4.37, p<0.001]). In a direct comparison (n=858), the AI test was more accurate than Oncotype DX, the standard-of-care 21-gene assay, achieving a C-index of 0.67 [0.61-0.74] versus 0.61 [0.49-0.73], respectively. Additionally, the AI test added independent prognostic information to Oncotype DX in a multivariate analysis (HR: 3.11 [1.91-5.09, p<0.001)]). The test demonstrated robust accuracy across major molecular breast cancer subtypes, including TNBC (C-index: 0.71 [0.62-0.81], HR: 3.81 [2.35-6.17, p=0.02]), where no diagnostic tools are currently recommended by clinical guidelines. These results suggest that our AI test improves upon the accuracy of existing prognostic tests, while being applicable to a wider range of patients.

James P. C. Duncan, Elynn Wu, Surya Dheeshjith et al. · allen-ai

Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows for distributed development of individual components within a common framework, unified by a coupler that handles translation between realms via spatial or temporal alignment and flux exchange. Following a similar approach adapted for machine learning-based emulators, we present SamudrACE: a coupled global climate model emulator which produces centuries-long simulations at 1-degree horizontal, 6-hourly atmospheric, and 5-daily oceanic resolution, with 145 2D fields spanning 8 atmospheric and 19 oceanic vertical levels, plus sea ice, surface, and top-of-atmosphere variables. SamudrACE is highly stable and has low climate biases comparable to those of its components with prescribed boundary forcing, with realistic variability in coupled climate phenomena such as ENSO that is not possible to simulate in uncoupled mode.

Victor Li, Naveenraj Kamalakannan, Avinash Parnandi et al.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of computer-vision tasks, sparking interest in their potential for digital health applications. Here, we apply VLMs to two fundamental challenges in data-driven stroke rehabilitation: automatic quantification of rehabilitation dose and impairment from videos. We formulate these problems as motion-identification tasks, which can be addressed using VLMs. We evaluate our proposed framework on a cohort of 29 healthy controls and 51 stroke survivors. Our results show that current VLMs lack the fine-grained motion understanding required for precise quantification: dose estimates are comparable to a baseline that excludes visual information, and impairment scores cannot be reliably predicted. Nevertheless, several findings suggest future promise. With optimized prompting and post-processing, VLMs can classify high-level activities from a few frames, detect motion and grasp with moderate accuracy, and approximate dose counts within 25% of ground truth for mildly impaired and healthy participants, all without task-specific training or finetuning. These results highlight both the current limitations and emerging opportunities of VLMs for data-driven stroke rehabilitation and broader clinical video analysis.

Qidong Yang, Weicheng Zhu, Joseph Keslin et al.

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction (instead of just determining the most likely sequence, as in language modeling). In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo framework to estimate probabilities and confidence intervals associated with the distribution of a discrete sequence. Our framework uses a Monte Carlo simulator, implemented as an autoregressively trained neural network, to sample sequences conditioned on an image input. We then use these samples to estimate the probabilities and confidence intervals. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that the framework produces accurate discriminative predictions, but can suffer from miscalibration. In order to address this shortcoming, we propose a time-dependent regularization method, which is shown to produce calibrated predictions.

Avinash Parnandi, Aakash Kaku, Anita Venkatesan et al.

Stroke rehabilitation seeks to increase neuroplasticity through the repeated practice of functional motions, but may have minimal impact on recovery because of insufficient repetitions. The optimal training content and quantity are currently unknown because no practical tools exist to measure them. Here, we present PrimSeq, a pipeline to classify and count functional motions trained in stroke rehabilitation. Our approach integrates wearable sensors to capture upper-body motion, a deep learning model to predict motion sequences, and an algorithm to tally motions. The trained model accurately decomposes rehabilitation activities into component functional motions, outperforming competitive machine learning methods. PrimSeq furthermore quantifies these motions at a fraction of the time and labor costs of human experts. We demonstrate the capabilities of PrimSeq in previously unseen stroke patients with a range of upper extremity motor impairment. We expect that these advances will support the rigorous measurement required for quantitative dosing trials in stroke rehabilitation.

Sheng Liu, Aakash Kaku, Weicheng Zhu et al.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Aakash Kaku, Kangning Liu, Avinash Parnandi et al.

Automatic action identification from video and kinematic data is an important machine learning problem with applications ranging from robotics to smart health. Most existing works focus on identifying coarse actions such as running, climbing, or cutting a vegetable, which have relatively long durations. This is an important limitation for applications that require the identification of subtle motions at high temporal resolution. For example, in stroke recovery, quantifying rehabilitation dose requires differentiating motions with sub-second durations. Our goal is to bridge this gap. To this end, we introduce a large-scale, multimodal dataset, StrokeRehab, as a new action-recognition benchmark that includes subtle short-duration actions labeled at a high temporal resolution. These short-duration actions are called functional primitives, and consist of reaches, transports, repositions, stabilizations, and idles. The dataset consists of high-quality Inertial Measurement Unit sensors and video data of 41 stroke-impaired patients performing activities of daily living like feeding, brushing teeth, etc. We show that current state-of-the-art models based on segmentation produce noisy predictions when applied to these data, which often leads to overcounting of actions. To address this, we propose a novel approach for high-resolution action identification, inspired by speech-recognition techniques, which is based on a sequence-to-sequence model that directly predicts the sequence of actions. This approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods on the StrokeRehab dataset, as well as on the standard benchmark datasets 50Salads, Breakfast, and Jigsaws.

Xiaoxia Zhang, Quentin Duchemin, Kangning Liu et al.

Neural networks are increasingly used to estimate parameters in quantitative MRI, in particular in magnetic resonance fingerprinting. Their advantages over the gold standard non-linear least square fitting are their superior speed and their immunity to the non-convexity of many fitting problems. We find, however, that in heterogeneous parameter spaces, i.e. in spaces in which the variance of the estimated parameters varies considerably, good performance is hard to achieve and requires arduous tweaking of the loss function, hyper parameters, and the distribution of the training data in parameter space. Here, we address these issues with a theoretically well-founded loss function: the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) provides a theoretical lower bound for the variance of an unbiased estimator and we propose to normalize the squared error with respective CRB. With this normalization, we balance the contributions of hard-to-estimate and not-so-hard-to-estimate parameters and areas in parameter space, and avoid a dominance of the former in the overall training loss. Further, the CRB-based loss function equals one for a maximally-efficient unbiased estimator, which we consider the ideal estimator. Hence, the proposed CRB-based loss function provides an absolute evaluation metric. We compare a network trained with the CRB-based loss with a network trained with the commonly used means squared error loss and demonstrate the advantages of the former in numerical, phantom, and in vivo experiments.

Sreyas Mohan, Joshua L. Vincent, Ramon Manzorro et al.

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for image denoising are usually trained on large datasets. These models achieve the current state of the art, but they have difficulties generalizing when applied to data that deviate from the training distribution. Recent work has shown that it is possible to train denoisers on a single noisy image. These models adapt to the features of the test image, but their performance is limited by the small amount of information used to train them. Here we propose "GainTuning", in which CNN models pre-trained on large datasets are adaptively and selectively adjusted for individual test images. To avoid overfitting, GainTuning optimizes a single multiplicative scaling parameter (the "Gain") of each channel in the convolutional layers of the CNN. We show that GainTuning improves state-of-the-art CNNs on standard image-denoising benchmarks, boosting their denoising performance on nearly every image in a held-out test set. These adaptive improvements are even more substantial for test images differing systematically from the training data, either in noise level or image type. We illustrate the potential of adaptive denoising in a scientific application, in which a CNN is trained on synthetic data, and tested on real transmission-electron-microscope images. In contrast to the existing methodology, GainTuning is able to faithfully reconstruct the structure of catalytic nanoparticles from these data at extremely low signal-to-noise ratios.

Sheng Liu, Xiao Li, Yuexiang Zhai et al.

Normalization techniques have become a basic component in modern convolutional neural networks (ConvNets). In particular, many recent works demonstrate that promoting the orthogonality of the weights helps train deep models and improve robustness. For ConvNets, most existing methods are based on penalizing or normalizing weight matrices derived from concatenating or flattening the convolutional kernels. These methods often destroy or ignore the benign convolutional structure of the kernels; therefore, they are often expensive or impractical for deep ConvNets. In contrast, we introduce a simple and efficient "Convolutional Normalization" (ConvNorm) method that can fully exploit the convolutional structure in the Fourier domain and serve as a simple plug-and-play module to be conveniently incorporated into any ConvNets. Our method is inspired by recent work on preconditioning methods for convolutional sparse coding and can effectively promote each layer's channel-wise isometry. Furthermore, we show that our ConvNorm can reduce the layerwise spectral norm of the weight matrices and hence improve the Lipschitzness of the network, leading to easier training and improved robustness for deep ConvNets. Applied to classification under noise corruptions and generative adversarial network (GAN), we show that the ConvNorm improves the robustness of common ConvNets such as ResNet and the performance of GAN. We verify our findings via numerical experiments on CIFAR and ImageNet.

Dev Yashpal Sheth, Sreyas Mohan, Joshua L. Vincent et al.

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for video denoising are typically trained with supervision, assuming the availability of clean videos. However, in many applications, such as microscopy, noiseless videos are not available. To address this, we propose an Unsupervised Deep Video Denoiser (UDVD), a CNN architecture designed to be trained exclusively with noisy data. The performance of UDVD is comparable to the supervised state-of-the-art, even when trained only on a single short noisy video. We demonstrate the promise of our approach in real-world imaging applications by denoising raw video, fluorescence-microscopy and electron-microscopy data. In contrast to many current approaches to video denoising, UDVD does not require explicit motion compensation. This is advantageous because motion compensation is computationally expensive, and can be unreliable when the input data are noisy. A gradient-based analysis reveals that UDVD automatically adapts to local motion in the input noisy videos. Thus, the network learns to perform implicit motion compensation, even though it is only trained for denoising.

Sreyas Mohan, Ramon Manzorro, Joshua L. Vincent et al.

Denoising is a fundamental challenge in scientific imaging. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide the current state of the art in denoising natural images, where they produce impressive results. However, their potential has barely been explored in the context of scientific imaging. Denoising CNNs are typically trained on real natural images artificially corrupted with simulated noise. In contrast, in scientific applications, noiseless ground-truth images are usually not available. To address this issue, we propose a simulation-based denoising (SBD) framework, in which CNNs are trained on simulated images. We test the framework on data obtained from transmission electron microscopy (TEM), an imaging technique with widespread applications in material science, biology, and medicine. SBD outperforms existing techniques by a wide margin on a simulated benchmark dataset, as well as on real data. Apart from the denoised images, SBD generates likelihood maps to visualize the agreement between the structure of the denoised image and the observed data. Our results reveal shortcomings of state-of-the-art denoising architectures, such as their small field-of-view: substantially increasing the field-of-view of the CNNs allows them to exploit non-local periodic patterns in the data, which is crucial at high noise levels. In addition, we analyze the generalization capability of SBD, demonstrating that the trained networks are robust to variations of imaging parameters and of the underlying signal structure. Finally, we release the first publicly available benchmark dataset of TEM images, containing 18,000 examples.

Farah E. Shamout, Yiqiu Shen, Nan Wu et al.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, rapid and accurate triage of patients at the emergency department is critical to inform decision-making. We propose a data-driven approach for automatic prediction of deterioration risk using a deep neural network that learns from chest X-ray images and a gradient boosting model that learns from routine clinical variables. Our AI prognosis system, trained using data from 3,661 patients, achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.786 (95% CI: 0.745-0.830) when predicting deterioration within 96 hours. The deep neural network extracts informative areas of chest X-ray images to assist clinicians in interpreting the predictions and performs comparably to two radiologists in a reader study. In order to verify performance in a real clinical setting, we silently deployed a preliminary version of the deep neural network at New York University Langone Health during the first wave of the pandemic, which produced accurate predictions in real-time. In summary, our findings demonstrate the potential of the proposed system for assisting front-line physicians in the triage of COVID-19 patients.

Sheng Liu, Jonathan Niles-Weed, Narges Razavian et al.

We propose a novel framework to perform classification via deep learning in the presence of noisy annotations. When trained on noisy labels, deep neural networks have been observed to first fit the training data with clean labels during an "early learning" phase, before eventually memorizing the examples with false labels. We prove that early learning and memorization are fundamental phenomena in high-dimensional classification tasks, even in simple linear models, and give a theoretical explanation in this setting. Motivated by these findings, we develop a new technique for noisy classification tasks, which exploits the progress of the early learning phase. In contrast with existing approaches, which use the model output during early learning to detect the examples with clean labels, and either ignore or attempt to correct the false labels, we take a different route and instead capitalize on early learning via regularization. There are two key elements to our approach. First, we leverage semi-supervised learning techniques to produce target probabilities based on the model outputs. Second, we design a regularization term that steers the model towards these targets, implicitly preventing memorization of the false labels. The resulting framework is shown to provide robustness to noisy annotations on several standard benchmarks and real-world datasets, where it achieves results comparable to the state of the art.

Aakash Kaku, Avinash Parnandi, Anita Venkatesan et al.

Recovery after stroke is often incomplete, but rehabilitation training may potentiate recovery by engaging endogenous neuroplasticity. In preclinical models of stroke, high doses of rehabilitation training are required to restore functional movement to the affected limbs of animals. In humans, however, the necessary dose of training to potentiate recovery is not known. This ignorance stems from the lack of objective, pragmatic approaches for measuring training doses in rehabilitation activities. Here, to develop a measurement approach, we took the critical first step of automatically identifying functional primitives, the basic building block of activities. Forty-eight individuals with chronic stroke performed a variety of rehabilitation activities while wearing inertial measurement units (IMUs) to capture upper body motion. Primitives were identified by human labelers, who labeled and segmented the associated IMU data. We performed automatic classification of these primitives using machine learning. We designed a convolutional neural network model that outperformed existing methods. The model includes an initial module to compute separate embeddings of different physical quantities in the sensor data. In addition, it replaces batch normalization (which performs normalization based on statistics computed from the training data) with instance normalization (which uses statistics computed from the test data). This increases robustness to possible distributional shifts when applying the method to new patients. With this approach, we attained an average classification accuracy of 70%. Thus, using a combination of IMU-based motion capture and deep learning, we were able to identify primitives automatically. This approach builds towards objectively-measured rehabilitation training, enabling the identification and counting of functional primitives that accrues to a training dose.

Aakash Kaku, Sreyas Mohan, Avinash Parnandi et al.

Extraneous variables are variables that are irrelevant for a certain task, but heavily affect the distribution of the available data. In this work, we show that the presence of such variables can degrade the performance of deep-learning models. We study three datasets where there is a strong influence of known extraneous variables: classification of upper-body movements in stroke patients, annotation of surgical activities, and recognition of corrupted images. Models trained with batch normalization learn features that are highly dependent on the extraneous variables. In batch normalization, the statistics used to normalize the features are learned from the training set and fixed at test time, which produces a mismatch in the presence of varying extraneous variables. We demonstrate that estimating the feature statistics adaptively during inference, as in instance normalization, addresses this issue, producing normalized features that are more robust to changes in the extraneous variables. This results in a significant gain in performance for different network architectures and choices of feature statistics.

Sheng Liu, Chhavi Yadav, Carlos Fernandez-Granda et al.

Early detection is a crucial goal in the study of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). In this work, we describe several techniques to boost the performance of 3D deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained to detect AD using structural brain MRI scans. Specifically, we provide evidence that (1) instance normalization outperforms batch normalization, (2) early spatial downsampling negatively affects performance, (3) widening the model brings consistent gains while increasing the depth does not, and (4) incorporating age information yields moderate improvement. Together, these insights yield an increment of approximately 14% in test accuracy over existing models when distinguishing between patients with AD, mild cognitive impairment, and controls in the ADNI dataset. Similar performance is achieved on an independent dataset.

Sreyas Mohan, Zahra Kadkhodaie, Eero P. Simoncelli et al.

Deep convolutional networks often append additive constant ("bias") terms to their convolution operations, enabling a richer repertoire of functional mappings. Biases are also used to facilitate training, by subtracting mean response over batches of training images (a component of "batch normalization"). Recent state-of-the-art blind denoising methods (e.g., DnCNN) seem to require these terms for their success. Here, however, we show that these networks systematically overfit the noise levels for which they are trained: when deployed at noise levels outside the training range, performance degrades dramatically. In contrast, a bias-free architecture -- obtained by removing the constant terms in every layer of the network, including those used for batch normalization-- generalizes robustly across noise levels, while preserving state-of-the-art performance within the training range. Locally, the bias-free network acts linearly on the noisy image, enabling direct analysis of network behavior via standard linear-algebraic tools. These analyses provide interpretations of network functionality in terms of nonlinear adaptive filtering, and projection onto a union of low-dimensional subspaces, connecting the learning-based method to more traditional denoising methodology.

Gautier Izacard, Sreyas Mohan, Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Frequency estimation is a fundamental problem in signal processing, with applications in radar imaging, underwater acoustics, seismic imaging, and spectroscopy. The goal is to estimate the frequency of each component in a multisinusoidal signal from a finite number of noisy samples. A recent machine-learning approach uses a neural network to output a learned representation with local maxima at the position of the frequency estimates. In this work, we propose a novel neural-network architecture that produces a significantly more accurate representation, and combine it with an additional neural-network module trained to detect the number of frequencies. This yields a fast, fully-automatic method for frequency estimation that achieves state-of-the-art results. In particular, it outperforms existing techniques by a substantial margin at medium-to-high noise levels.

Sheng Liu, Mark Cheng, Hayley Brooks et al.

We propose a nonparametric model for time series with missing data based on low-rank matrix factorization. The model expresses each instance in a set of time series as a linear combination of a small number of shared basis functions. Constraining the functions and the corresponding coefficients to be nonnegative yields an interpretable low-dimensional representation of the data. A time-smoothing regularization term ensures that the model captures meaningful trends in the data, instead of overfitting short-term fluctuations. The low-dimensional representation makes it possible to detect outliers and cluster the time series according to the interpretable features extracted by the model, and also to perform forecasting via kernel regression. We apply our methodology to a large real-world dataset of infant-sleep data gathered by caregivers with a mobile-phone app. Our analysis automatically extracts daily-sleep patterns consistent with the existing literature. This allows us to compute sleep-development trends for the cohort, which characterize the emergence of circadian sleep and different napping habits. We apply our methodology to detect anomalous individuals, to cluster the cohort into groups with different sleeping tendencies, and to obtain improved predictions of future sleep behavior.

Gautier Izacard, Brett Bernstein, Carlos Fernandez-Granda

We propose a learning-based approach for estimating the spectrum of a multisinusoidal signal from a finite number of samples. A neural-network is trained to approximate the spectra of such signals on simulated data. The proposed methodology is very flexible: adapting to different signal and noise models only requires modifying the training data accordingly. Numerical experiments show that the approach performs competitively with classical methods designed for additive Gaussian noise at a range of noise levels, and is also effective in the presence of impulsive noise.

Carlos Fernandez-Granda

We consider the problem of recovering a signal consisting of a superposition of point sources from low-resolution data with a cut-off frequency f. If the distance between the sources is under 1/f, this problem is not well posed in the sense that the low-pass data corresponding to two different signals may be practically the same. We show that minimizing a continuous version of the l1 norm achieves exact recovery as long as the sources are separated by at least 1.26/f. The proof is based on the construction of a dual certificate for the optimization problem, which can be used to establish that the procedure is stable to noise. Finally, we illustrate the flexibility of our optimization-based framework by describing extensions to the demixing of sines and spikes and to the estimation of point sources that share a common support.