Qin Luo

Chen Chen, Yuxin He, Hao Wang et al.

Train delays can propagate rapidly throughout the Urban Rail Transit (URT) network under networked operation conditions, posing significant challenges to operational departments. Accurately predicting passenger travel choices under train delays can provide interpretable insights into the redistribution of passenger flow, offering crucial decision support for emergency response and service recovery. However, the diversity of travel choices due to passenger heterogeneity and the sparsity of delay events leads to issues of data sparsity and sample imbalance in the travel choices dataset under metro delays. It is challenging to model this problem using traditional machine learning approaches, which typically rely on large, balanced datasets. Given the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in text processing, understanding, and their capabilities in small-sample and even zero-shot learning, this paper proposes a novel Passenger Travel Choice prediction framework under metro delays with the Large Language Model (DelayPTC-LLM). The well-designed prompting engineering is developed to guide the LLM in making and rationalizing predictions about travel choices, taking into account passenger heterogeneity and features of the delay events. Utilizing real-world data from Shenzhen Metro, including Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data and detailed delay logs, a comparative analysis of DelayPTC-LLM with traditional prediction models demonstrates the superior capability of LLMs in handling complex, sparse datasets commonly encountered under disruption of transportation systems. The results validate the advantages of DelayPTC-LLM in terms of predictive accuracy and its potential to provide actionable insights for big traffic data.

Qiang Li, Yinhan Lin, Qin Luo et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has evolved into a widely investigated technology for the development of smart TSC strategies. However, current RL algorithms necessitate excessive interaction with the environment to learn effective policies, making them impractical for large-scale tasks. The DreamerV3 algorithm presents compelling properties for policy learning. It summarizes general dynamics knowledge about the environment and enables the prediction of future outcomes of potential actions from past experience, reducing the interaction with the environment through imagination training. In this paper, a corridor TSC model is trained using the DreamerV3 algorithm to explore the benefits of world models for TSC strategy learning. In RL environment design, to manage congestion levels effectively, both the state and reward functions are defined based on queue length, and the action is designed to manage queue length efficiently. Using the SUMO simulation platform, the two hyperparameters (training ratio and model size) of the DreamerV3 algorithm were tuned and analyzed across different OD matrix scenarios. We discovered that choosing a smaller model size and initially attempting several medium training ratios can significantly reduce the time spent on hyperparameter tuning. Additionally, we found that the approach is generally applicable as it can solve two TSC task scenarios with the same hyperparameters. Regarding the claimed data-efficiency of the DreamerV3 algorithm, due to the significant fluctuation of the episode reward curve in the early stages of training, it can only be confirmed that larger model sizes exhibit modest data-efficiency, and no evidence was found that increasing the training ratio accelerates convergence.

Qiang Li, Jin Niu, Qin Luo et al.

In the context of global urbanization and motorization, traffic congestion has become a significant issue, severely affecting the quality of life, environment, and economy. This paper puts forward a single-agent reinforcement learning (RL)-based regional traffic signal control (TSC) model. Different from multi - agent systems, this model can coordinate traffic signals across a large area, with the goals of alleviating regional traffic congestion and minimizing the total travel time. The TSC environment is precisely defined through specific state space, action space, and reward functions. The state space consists of the current congestion state, which is represented by the queue lengths of each link, and the current signal phase scheme of intersections. The action space is designed to select an intersection first and then adjust its phase split. Two reward functions are meticulously crafted. One focuses on alleviating congestion and the other aims to minimize the total travel time while considering the congestion level. The experiments are carried out with the SUMO traffic simulation software. The performance of the TSC model is evaluated by comparing it with a base case where no signal-timing adjustments are made. The results show that the model can effectively control congestion. For example, the queuing length is significantly reduced in the scenarios tested. Moreover, when the reward is set to both alleviate congestion and minimize the total travel time, the average travel time is remarkably decreased, which indicates that the model can effectively improve traffic conditions. This research provides a new approach for large-scale regional traffic signal control and offers valuable insights for future urban traffic management.

Ping Huang, Yuxin He, Hao Wang et al.

Accurate short-term forecasts of passenger flow in metro systems under delay conditions are crucial for emergency response and service recovery, which pose significant challenges and are currently under-researched. Due to the rare occurrence of delay events, the limited sample size under delay condictions make it difficult for conventional models to effectively capture the complex impacts of delays on passenger flow, resulting in low forecasting accuracy. Recognizing the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in few-shot learning due to their powerful pre-training, contextual understanding, ability to perform zero-shot and few-shot reasoning, to address the issues that effectively generalize and adapt with minimal data, we propose a passenger flow forecasting framework under delay conditions that synthesizes an LLM with carefully designed prompt engineering. By Refining prompt design, we enable the LLM to understand delay event information and the pattern from historical passenger flow data, thus overcoming the challenges of passenger flow forecasting under delay conditions. The propmpt engineering in the framework consists of two main stages: systematic prompt generation and prompt refinement. In the prompt generation stage, multi-source data is transformed into descriptive texts understandable by the LLM and stored. In the prompt refinement stage, we employ the multidimensional Chain of Thought (CoT) method to refine the prompts. We verify the proposed framework by conducting experiments using real-world datasets specifically targeting passenger flow forecasting under delay conditions of Shenzhen metro in China. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs particularly well in forecasting passenger flow under delay conditions.