Hillary Fairbanks

Sohail Reddy, Hillary Fairbanks

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to acclerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive conditions on the accuracy of the machine learning model to facilitate more efficient hierarchical sampling. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

Jerrad Hampton, Hillary Fairbanks, Akil Narayan et al.

For practical model-based demands, such as design space exploration and uncertainty quantification (UQ), a high-fidelity model that produces accurate outputs often has high computational cost, while a low-fidelity model with less accurate outputs has low computational cost. It is often possible to construct a bi-fidelity model having accuracy comparable with the high-fidelity model and computational cost comparable with the low-fidelity model. This work presents the construction and analysis of a non-intrusive (i.e., sample-based) bi-fidelity model that relies on the low-rank structure of the map between model parameters/uncertain inputs and the solution of interest, if exists. Specifically, we derive a novel, pragmatic estimate for the error committed by this bi-fidelity model. We show that this error bound can be used to determine if a given pair of low- and high-fidelity models will lead to an accurate bi-fidelity approximation. The cost of this error bound is relatively small and depends on the solution rank. The value of this error estimate is demonstrated using two example problems in the context of UQ, involving linear and non-linear partial differential equations.