Daniele Atzeni

Daniele Atzeni, Federico Errica, Davide Bacciu et al.

We propose an extension of the Contextual Graph Markov Model, a deep and probabilistic machine learning model for graphs, to model the distribution of edge features. Our approach is architectural, as we introduce an additional Bayesian network mapping edge features into discrete states to be used by the original model. In doing so, we are also able to build richer graph representations even in the absence of edge features, which is confirmed by the performance improvements on standard graph classification benchmarks. Moreover, we successfully test our proposal in a graph regression scenario where edge features are of fundamental importance, and we show that the learned edge representation provides substantial performance improvements against the original model on three link prediction tasks. By keeping the computational complexity linear in the number of edges, the proposed model is amenable to large-scale graph processing.

Edoardo Urettini, Daniele Atzeni, Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki et al.

Online continual learning (OCL) methods adapt to changing environments without forgetting past knowledge. Similarly, online time series forecasting (OTSF) is a real-world problem where data evolve in time and success depends on both rapid adaptation and long-term memory. Indeed, time-varying and regime-switching forecasting models have been extensively studied, offering a strong justification for the use of OCL in these settings. Building on recent work that applies OCL to OTSF, this paper aims to strengthen the theoretical and practical connections between time series methods and OCL. First, we reframe neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, showing that natural gradient descent is a score-driven method and proving its information-theoretic optimality. Then, we show that using a Student's t likelihood in addition to natural gradient induces a bounded update, which improves robustness to outliers. Finally, we introduce Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR), which combines our robust optimizer with a replay buffer and a dynamic scale heuristic that improves fast adaptation at regime drifts. Empirical results demonstrate that NatSR achieves stronger forecasting performance than more complex state-of-the-art methods.