Thomas Zollo

Thomas Zollo, Jimmy Wang, Richard Zemel

Reasoning language models can solve increasingly complex tasks, but struggle to produce the calibrated confidence estimates necessary for reliable deployment. Existing calibration methods usually depend on labels or repeated sampling at inference time, making them impractical in many settings. We introduce a method for unsupervised confidence calibration of reasoning LLMs when only a single generation is available at inference time. Our approach uses offline sampling on unlabeled data to derive a self-consistency-based proxy target, then distills this signal into a lightweight deployment-time confidence predictor. In a broad evaluation across 5 math and question-answering tasks using 9 reasoning models, our method substantially outperforms baselines, including under distribution shift, and improves downstream performance in selective prediction and simulated downstream decision-making.

Jimmy Wang, Thomas Zollo, Richard Zemel et al.

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

Nikita Rajaneesh, Thomas Zollo, Richard Zemel

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) hold great promise for advanced reasoning at the intersection of text and images, yet they have not fully realized this potential. MLLMs typically integrate an LLM, a vision encoder, and a connector that maps the vision encoder's embeddings into the LLM's text embedding space. Although each component is pretrained on massive datasets with billions of samples, the entire multimodal model is typically trained on only thousands (or a few million) samples, which can result in weak performance on complex reasoning tasks. To address these shortcomings, instead of relying on extensive labeled datasets for fine-tuning, we propose a Test-Time Warmup method that adapts the MLLM per test instance by leveraging data from weakly supervised auxiliary tasks. With our approach, we observe a relative performance improvement of 4.03% on MMMU, 5.28% on VQA-Rad, and 1.63% on GQA on the Llama-Vision-Instruct model. Our method demonstrates that 'warming up' before inference can enhance MLLMs' robustness across diverse reasoning tasks.