Moulik Gupta

Moulik Gupta, Dhruv Kumar, Murari Mandal et al.

Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences. Existing generators fail to resolve this mismatch: prior-based approaches (e.g., CauKer, TimePFN) produce domain-agnostic samples, while data-driven methods (e.g., TimeGAN) treat references as black-box supervision, forfeiting explicit control over periodic structure, local variability, and cross-variable dynamics. We propose ReGeN, a reference-guided generative pipeline that treats observed sequences not as examples to imitate, but as structural scaffolds for controllable synthesis. ReGeN decomposes each reference into three interpretable components: a phase-aligned periodic backbone capturing dominant domain morphology; per-variable stochastic residuals modeled with a deep-kernel Gaussian process; and lag-aware cross-variable dependencies injected through a structural causal model with fitted coupling coefficients. Sampling these components at controllable temperature broadens distributional coverage while preserving domain-grounded structure. We show that ReGeN-generated data consistently substitutes for real sibling data with minimal forecasting degradation, and in strongly periodic domains such as traffic, can outperform the real source itself. We further show that a foundation model pretrained on ReGeN corpora outperforms those pretrained on prior-based and data-driven synthetic alternatives. This suggests that in low-data regimes, how reference data is structurally exploited can matter as much as how much data is available.

Moulik Gupta, Achyut Mani Tripathi

Time series forecasting requires models that can efficiently capture complex temporal dependencies, especially in large-scale and high-dimensional settings. While Transformer-based architectures excel at modeling long-range dependencies, their quadratic computational complexity poses limitations on scalability and adaptability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce DB2-TransF, a novel Transformer-inspired architecture that replaces the self-attention mechanism with a learnable Daubechies wavelet coefficient layer. This wavelet-based module efficiently captures multi-scale local and global patterns and enhances the modeling of correlations across multiple time series for the time series forecasting task. Extensive experiments on 13 standard forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that DB2-TransF achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy to conventional Transformers, while substantially reducing memory usage for the time series forecasting task. The obtained experimental results position DB2-TransF as a scalable and resource-efficient framework for advanced time series forecasting. Our code is available at https://github.com/SteadySurfdom/DB2-TransF