John A. Miller

Mohammadreza Iman, John A. Miller, Khaled Rasheed et al.

Deep transfer learning techniques try to tackle the limitations of deep learning, the dependency on extensive training data and the training costs, by reusing obtained knowledge. However, the current DTL techniques suffer from either catastrophic forgetting dilemma (losing the previously obtained knowledge) or overly biased pre-trained models (harder to adapt to target data) in finetuning pre-trained models or freezing a part of the pre-trained model, respectively. Progressive learning, a sub-category of DTL, reduces the effect of the overly biased model in the case of freezing earlier layers by adding a new layer to the end of a frozen pre-trained model. Even though it has been successful in many cases, it cannot yet handle distant source and target data. We propose a new continual/progressive learning approach for deep transfer learning to tackle these limitations. To avoid both catastrophic forgetting and overly biased-model problems, we expand the pre-trained model by expanding pre-trained layers (adding new nodes to each layer) in the model instead of only adding new layers. Hence the method is named EXPANSE. Our experimental results confirm that we can tackle distant source and target data using this technique. At the same time, the final model is still valid on the source data, achieving a promising deep continual learning approach. Moreover, we offer a new way of training deep learning models inspired by the human education system. We termed this two-step training: learning basics first, then adding complexities and uncertainties. The evaluation implies that the two-step training extracts more meaningful features and a finer basin on the error surface since it can achieve better accuracy in comparison to regular training. EXPANSE (model expansion and two-step training) is a systematic continual learning approach applicable to different problems and DL models.

Rediet Abebe, Moritz Hardt, Angela Jin et al.

The U.S. criminal legal system increasingly relies on software output to convict and incarcerate people. In a large number of cases each year, the government makes these consequential decisions based on evidence from statistical software -- such as probabilistic genotyping, environmental audio detection, and toolmark analysis tools -- that defense counsel cannot fully cross-examine or scrutinize. This undermines the commitments of the adversarial criminal legal system, which relies on the defense's ability to probe and test the prosecution's case to safeguard individual rights. Responding to this need to adversarially scrutinize output from such software, we propose robust adversarial testing as an audit framework to examine the validity of evidentiary statistical software. We define and operationalize this notion of robust adversarial testing for defense use by drawing on a large body of recent work in robust machine learning and algorithmic fairness. We demonstrate how this framework both standardizes the process for scrutinizing such tools and empowers defense lawyers to examine their validity for instances most relevant to the case at hand. We further discuss existing structural and institutional challenges within the U.S. criminal legal system that may create barriers for implementing this and other such audit frameworks and close with a discussion on policy changes that could help address these concerns.

Sahar Voghoei, James Byars, John A Miller et al.

This paper proposes a model to predict the levels (e.g., Bachelor, Master, etc.) of postsecondary degree awards that have been ambiguously expressed in the student tracking reports of the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). The model will be the hybrid of two modules. The first module interprets the relevant abbreviatory elements embedded in NSC reports by referring to a comprehensive database that we have made of nearly 950 abbreviations for degree titles used by American postsecondary educators. The second module is a combination of feature classification and text mining modeled with CNN-BiLSTM, which is preceded by several steps of heavy pre-processing. The model proposed in this paper was trained with four multi-label datasets of different grades of resolution and returned 97.83\% accuracy with the most sophisticated dataset. Such a thorough classification of degree levels will provide insights into the modeling patterns of student success and mobility. To date, such a classification strategy has not been attempted except using manual methods and simple text parsing logic.

Frances Ding, Moritz Hardt, John Miller et al.

Although the fairness community has recognized the importance of data, researchers in the area primarily rely on UCI Adult when it comes to tabular data. Derived from a 1994 US Census survey, this dataset has appeared in hundreds of research papers where it served as the basis for the development and comparison of many algorithmic fairness interventions. We reconstruct a superset of the UCI Adult data from available US Census sources and reveal idiosyncrasies of the UCI Adult dataset that limit its external validity. Our primary contribution is a suite of new datasets derived from US Census surveys that extend the existing data ecosystem for research on fair machine learning. We create prediction tasks relating to income, employment, health, transportation, and housing. The data span multiple years and all states of the United States, allowing researchers to study temporal shift and geographic variation. We highlight a broad initial sweep of new empirical insights relating to trade-offs between fairness criteria, performance of algorithmic interventions, and the role of distribution shift based on our new datasets. Our findings inform ongoing debates, challenge some existing narratives, and point to future research directions. Our datasets are available at https://github.com/zykls/folktables.

Khalifeh AlJadda, Rene Ranzinger, Melody Porterfield et al.

Several algorithms and tools have been developed to (semi) automate the process of glycan identification by interpreting Mass Spectrometric data. However, each has limitations when annotating MSn data with thousands of MS spectra using uncurated public databases. Moreover, the existing tools are not designed to manage MSn data where n > 2. We propose a novel software package to automate the annotation of tandem MS data. This software consists of two major components. The first, is a free, semi-automated MSn data interpreter called the Glycomic Elucidation and Annotation Tool (GELATO). This tool extends and automates the functionality of existing open source projects, namely, GlycoWorkbench (GWB) and GlycomeDB. The second is a machine learning model called Smart Anotation Enhancement Graph (SAGE), which learns the behavior of glycoanalysts to select annotations generated by GELATO that emulate human interpretation of the spectra.

John A. Miller, Mohammed Aldosari, Farah Saeed et al.

Deep Learning has been successfully applied to many application domains, yet its advantages have been slow to emerge for time series forecasting. For example, in the well-known Makridakis (M) Competitions, hybrids of traditional statistical or machine learning techniques have only recently become the top performers. With the recent architectural advances in deep learning being applied to time series forecasting (e.g., encoder-decoders with attention, transformers, and graph neural networks), deep learning has begun to show significant advantages. Still, in the area of pandemic prediction, there remain challenges for deep learning models: the time series is not long enough for effective training, unawareness of accumulated scientific knowledge, and interpretability of the model. To this end, the development of foundation models (large deep learning models with extensive pre-training) allows models to understand patterns and acquire knowledge that can be applied to new related problems before extensive training data becomes available. Furthermore, there is a vast amount of knowledge available that deep learning models can tap into, including Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models fine-tuned with scientific domain knowledge. There is ongoing research examining how to utilize or inject such knowledge into deep learning models. In this survey, several state-of-the-art modeling techniques are reviewed, and suggestions for further work are provided.

Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, Xiaochuan Li, Yogesh Chaudhari et al.

In this work, we study the pandemic course in the United States by considering national and state levels data. We propose and compare multiple time-series prediction techniques which incorporate auxiliary variables. One type of approach is based on spatio-temporal graph neural networks which forecast the pandemic course by utilizing a hybrid deep learning architecture and human mobility data. Nodes in this graph represent the state-level deaths due to COVID-19, edges represent the human mobility trend and temporal edges correspond to node attributes across time. The second approach is based on a statistical technique for COVID-19 mortality prediction in the United States that uses the SARIMA model and eXogenous variables. We evaluate these techniques on both state and national levels COVID-19 data in the United States and claim that the SARIMA and MCP models generated forecast values by the eXogenous variables can enrich the underlying model to capture complexity in respectively national and state levels data. We demonstrate significant enhancement in the forecasting accuracy for a COVID-19 dataset, with a maximum improvement in forecasting accuracy by 64.58% and 59.18% (on average) over the GCN-LSTM model in the national level data, and 58.79% and 52.40% (on average) over the GCN-LSTM model in the state level data. Additionally, our proposed model outperforms a parallel study (AUG-NN) by 27.35% improvement of accuracy on average.

Indrajeet Y. Javeri, Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, Ismailcem B. Arpinar et al.

Statistical methods such as the Box-Jenkins method for time-series forecasting have been prominent since their development in 1970. Many researchers rely on such models as they can be efficiently estimated and also provide interpretability. However, advances in machine learning research indicate that neural networks can be powerful data modeling techniques, as they can give higher accuracy for a plethora of learning problems and datasets. In the past, they have been tried on time-series forecasting as well, but their overall results have not been significantly better than the statistical models especially for intermediate length times series data. Their modeling capacities are limited in cases where enough data may not be available to estimate the large number of parameters that these non-linear models require. This paper presents an easy to implement data augmentation method to significantly improve the performance of such networks. Our method, Augmented-Neural-Network, which involves using forecasts from statistical models, can help unlock the power of neural networks on intermediate length time-series and produces competitive results. It shows that data augmentation, when paired with Automated Machine Learning techniques such as Neural Architecture Search, can help to find the best neural architecture for a given time-series. Using the combination of these, demonstrates significant enhancement in the forecasting accuracy of three neural network-based models for a COVID-19 dataset, with a maximum improvement in forecasting accuracy by 21.41%, 24.29%, and 16.42%, respectively, over the neural networks that do not use augmented data.

John Miller, Juan C. Perdomo, Tijana Zrnic

In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points of repeated retraining. However, stable solutions can be far from optimal when evaluated in terms of the performative risk, the loss experienced by the decision maker when deploying a model. In this paper, we shift attention beyond performative stability and focus on optimizing the performative risk directly. We identify a natural set of properties of the loss function and model-induced distribution shift under which the performative risk is convex, a property which does not follow from convexity of the loss alone. Furthermore, we develop algorithms that leverage our structural assumptions to optimize the performative risk with better sample efficiency than generic methods for derivative-free convex optimization.

Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, John Miller

We propose a new framework for 2-D interpreting (features and samples) black-box machine learning models via a metamodeling technique, by which we study the output and input relationships of the underlying machine learning model. The metamodel can be estimated from data generated via a trained complex model by running the computer experiment on samples of data in the region of interest. We utilize a Gaussian process as a surrogate to capture the response surface of a complex model, in which we incorporate two parts in the process: interpolated values that are modeled by a stationary Gaussian process Z governed by a prior covariance function, and a mean function mu that captures the known trends in the underlying model. The optimization procedure for the variable importance parameter theta is to maximize the likelihood function. This theta corresponds to the correlation of individual variables with the target response. There is no need for any pre-assumed models since it depends on empirical observations. Experiments demonstrate the potential of the interpretable model through quantitative assessment of the predicted samples.

Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, Abbas Keshavarzi, Abolfazl Farahani et al.

We propose a novel application of Transfer Learning to classify video-frame sequences over multiple classes. This is a pre-weighted model that does not require to train a fresh CNN. This representation is achieved with the advent of "deep neural network" (DNN), which is being studied these days by many researchers. We utilize the classical approaches for video classification task using object detection techniques for comparison, such as "Google Video Intelligence API" and this study will run experiments as to how those architectures would perform in foggy or rainy weather conditions. Experimental evaluation on video collections shows that the new proposed classifier achieves superior performance over existing solutions.

Mohammadhossein Toutiaee, Soheyla Amirian, John A. Miller et al.

Equal Opportunity and Fairness are receiving increasing attention in artificial intelligence. Stereotyping is another source of discrimination, which yet has been unstudied in literature. GAN-made faces would be exposed to such discrimination, if they are classified by human perception. It is possible to eliminate the human impact on fictitious faces classification task by the use of statistical approaches. We present a novel approach through penalized regression to label stereotype-free GAN-generated synthetic unlabeled images. The proposed approach aids labeling new data (fictitious output images) by minimizing a penalized version of the least squares cost function between realistic pictures and target pictures.

John Miller, Smitha Milli, Moritz Hardt

Consequential decision-making incentivizes individuals to strategically adapt their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. While a long line of work has viewed strategic adaptation as gaming and attempted to mitigate its effects, recent work has instead sought to design classifiers that incentivize individuals to improve a desired quality. Key to both accounts is a cost function that dictates which adaptations are rational to undertake. In this work, we develop a causal framework for strategic adaptation. Our causal perspective clearly distinguishes between gaming and improvement and reveals an important obstacle to incentive design. We prove any procedure for designing classifiers that incentivize improvement must inevitably solve a non-trivial causal inference problem. Moreover, we show a similar result holds for designing cost functions that satisfy the requirements of previous work. With the benefit of hindsight, our results show much of the prior work on strategic classification is causal modeling in disguise.

Khalifeh AlJadda, Mohammed Korayem, Camilo Ortiz et al.

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in machine learning and data mining, demonstrates this limitation when the training data consists of random variables, each of them has a large set of possible values. In the big data era, one would expect new extensions to the existing PGMs to handle the massive amount of data produced these days by computers, sensors and other electronic devices. With hierarchical data - data that is arranged in a treelike structure with several levels - one would expect to see hundreds of thousands or millions of values distributed over even just a small number of levels. When modeling this kind of hierarchical data across large data sets, Bayesian Networks become infeasible for representing the probability distributions. In this paper we introduce an extension to Bayesian Networks to handle massive sets of hierarchical data in a reasonable amount of time and space. The proposed model achieves perfect precision of 1.0 and high recall of 0.93 when it is used as multi-label classifier for the annotation of mass spectrometry data. On another data set of 1.5 billion search logs provided by CareerBuilder.com the model was able to predict latent semantic relationships between search keywords with accuracy up to 0.80.

Khalifeh AlJadda, Mohammed Korayem, Camilo Ortiz et al.

In the big data era, scalability has become a crucial requirement for any useful computational model. Probabilistic graphical models are very useful for mining and discovering data insights, but they are not scalable enough to be suitable for big data problems. Bayesian Networks particularly demonstrate this limitation when their data is represented using few random variables while each random variable has a massive set of values. With hierarchical data - data that is arranged in a treelike structure with several levels - one would expect to see hundreds of thousands or millions of values distributed over even just a small number of levels. When modeling this kind of hierarchical data across large data sets, Bayesian networks become infeasible for representing the probability distributions for the following reasons: i) Each level represents a single random variable with hundreds of thousands of values, ii) The number of levels is usually small, so there are also few random variables, and iii) The structure of the network is predefined since the dependency is modeled top-down from each parent to each of its child nodes, so the network would contain a single linear path for the random variables from each parent to each child node. In this paper we present a scalable probabilistic graphical model to overcome these limitations for massive hierarchical data. We believe the proposed model will lead to an easily-scalable, more readable, and expressive implementation for problems that require probabilistic-based solutions for massive amounts of hierarchical data. We successfully applied this model to solve two different challenging probabilistic-based problems on massive hierarchical data sets for different domains, namely, bioinformatics and latent semantic discovery over search logs.