Ilker Demirel

Zeshan Hussain, Ming-Chieh Shih, Michael Oberst et al.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT)s are relied upon to assess new treatments, but suffer from limited power to guide personalized treatment decisions. On the other hand, observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies have large and diverse populations, but are prone to various biases (e.g. residual confounding). To safely leverage the strengths of observational studies, we focus on the problem of falsification, whereby RCTs are used to validate causal effect estimates learned from observational data. In particular, we show that, given data from both an RCT and an observational study, assumptions on internal and external validity have an observable, testable implication in the form of a set of Conditional Moment Restrictions (CMRs). Further, we show that expressing these CMRs with respect to the causal effect, or "causal contrast", as opposed to individual counterfactual means, provides a more reliable falsification test. In addition to giving guarantees on the asymptotic properties of our test, we demonstrate superior power and type I error of our approach on semi-synthetic and real world datasets. Our approach is interpretable, allowing a practitioner to visualize which subgroups in the population lead to falsification of an observational study.

Ilker Demirel, Larry Shi, Zeshan Hussain et al.

As real-world datasets become increasingly complex and heterogeneous, supervised learning is often bottlenecked by input representation design. Modeling multimodal data for downstream tasks, such as time-series, free text, and structured records, often requires non-trivial domain-specific engineering. We propose an agentic pipeline to streamline this process. First, an LLM analyzes a small but diverse subset of text-serialized input examples in-context to synthesize a global rubric, which acts as a programmatic specification for extracting and organizing evidence. This rubric is then used to transform naive text-serializations of inputs into a more standardized format for downstream models. We also describe local rubrics, which are task-conditioned summaries generated by an LLM. Across 15 clinical tasks from the EHRSHOT benchmark, our rubric-based approaches significantly outperform traditional count-feature models, naive text-serialization-based LLM baselines, and a clinical foundation model, which is pretrained on orders of magnitude more data. Beyond performance, rubrics offer several advantages for operational healthcare settings such as being easy to audit, cost-effectiveness to deploy at scale, and they can be converted to tabular representations that unlock a swath of machine learning techniques.

Riccardo Cadei, Ilker Demirel, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis et al. · eth-zurich

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on Prediction-Powered Causal Inferences (PPCI), i.e., estimating the treatment effect in an unlabeled target experiment, relying on training data with the same outcome annotated but potentially different treatment or effect modifiers. We first show that conditional calibration guarantees valid PPCI at population level. Then, we introduce a sufficient representation constraint transferring validity across experiments, which we propose to enforce in practice in Deconfounded Empirical Risk Minimization, our new model-agnostic training objective. We validate our method on synthetic and real-world scientific data, solving impossible problem instances for Empirical Risk Minimization even with standard invariance constraints. In particular, for the first time, we achieve valid causal inference on a scientific experiment with complex recording and no human annotations, fine-tuning a foundational model on our similar annotated experiment.

Hyewon Jeong, Sarah Jabbour, Yuzhe Yang et al. · uw

The third ML4H symposium was held in person on December 10, 2023, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. The symposium included research roundtable sessions to foster discussions between participants and senior researchers on timely and relevant topics for the \ac{ML4H} community. Encouraged by the successful virtual roundtables in the previous year, we organized eleven in-person roundtables and four virtual roundtables at ML4H 2022. The organization of the research roundtables at the conference involved 17 Senior Chairs and 19 Junior Chairs across 11 tables. Each roundtable session included invited senior chairs (with substantial experience in the field), junior chairs (responsible for facilitating the discussion), and attendees from diverse backgrounds with interest in the session's topic. Herein we detail the organization process and compile takeaways from these roundtable discussions, including recent advances, applications, and open challenges for each topic. We conclude with a summary and lessons learned across all roundtables. This document serves as a comprehensive review paper, summarizing the recent advancements in machine learning for healthcare as contributed by foremost researchers in the field.

Ilker Demirel, Karan Thakkar, Benjamin Elizalde et al.

Sensor data streams provide valuable information around activities and context for downstream applications, though integrating complementary information can be challenging. We show that large language models (LLMs) can be used for late fusion for activity classification from audio and motion time series data. We curated a subset of data for diverse activity recognition across contexts (e.g., household activities, sports) from the Ego4D dataset. Evaluated LLMs achieved 12-class zero- and one-shot classification F1-scores significantly above chance, with no task-specific training. Zero-shot classification via LLM-based fusion from modality-specific models can enable multimodal temporal applications where there is limited aligned training data for learning a shared embedding space. Additionally, LLM-based fusion can enable model deploying without requiring additional memory and computation for targeted application-specific multimodal models.

Ilker Demirel, Ahmed Alaa, Anthony Philippakis et al.

Causal inferences from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may not pertain to a target population where some effect modifiers have a different distribution. Prior work studies generalizing the results of a trial to a target population with no outcome but covariate data available. We show how the limited size of trials makes generalization a statistically infeasible task, as it requires estimating complex nuisance functions. We develop generalization algorithms that supplement the trial data with a prediction model learned from an additional observational study (OS), without making any assumptions on the OS. We theoretically and empirically show that our methods facilitate better generalization when the OS is high-quality, and remain robust when it is not, and e.g., have unmeasured confounding.

Ilker Demirel, Mehmet Ufuk Ozdemir, Cem Tekin

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) are extensively studied in various settings where the objective is to \textit{maximize} the actions' outcomes (i.e., rewards) over time. Since safety is crucial in many real-world problems, safe versions of MAB algorithms have also garnered considerable interest. In this work, we tackle a different critical task through the lens of \textit{linear stochastic bandits}, where the aim is to keep the actions' outcomes close to a target level while respecting a \textit{two-sided} safety constraint, which we call \textit{leveling}. Such a task is prevalent in numerous domains. Many healthcare problems, for instance, require keeping a physiological variable in a range and preferably close to a target level. The radical change in our objective necessitates a new acquisition strategy, which is at the heart of a MAB algorithm. We propose SALE-LTS: Safe Leveling via Linear Thompson Sampling algorithm, with a novel acquisition strategy to accommodate our task and show that it achieves sublinear regret with the same time and dimension dependence as previous works on the classical reward maximization problem absent any safety constraint. We demonstrate and discuss our algorithm's empirical performance in detail via thorough experiments.

Ilker Demirel, Ahmet Alparslan Celik, Cem Tekin

Finding an optimal individualized treatment regimen is considered one of the most challenging precision medicine problems. Various patient characteristics influence the response to the treatment, and hence, there is no one-size-fits-all regimen. Moreover, the administration of an unsafe dose during the treatment can have adverse effects on health. Therefore, a treatment model must ensure patient \emph{safety} while \emph{efficiently} optimizing the course of therapy. We study a prevalent medical problem where the treatment aims to keep a physiological variable in a safe range and preferably close to a target level, which we refer to as \emph{leveling}. Such a task may be relevant in numerous other domains as well. We propose ESCADA, a novel and generic multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithm tailored for the leveling task, to make safe, personalized, and context-aware dose recommendations. We derive high probability upper bounds on its cumulative regret and safety guarantees. Following ESCADA's design, we also describe its Thompson sampling-based counterpart. We discuss why the straightforward adaptations of the classical MAB algorithms such as GP-UCB may not be a good fit for the leveling task. Finally, we make \emph{in silico} experiments on the bolus-insulin dose allocation problem in type-1 diabetes mellitus disease and compare our algorithms against the famous GP-UCB algorithm, the rule-based dose calculators, and a clinician.