Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo

Túlio Marcondes Moreira, Jackson Geraldo de Faria, Pedro O. S. Vaz-de-Melo et al.

In this work, an AI-Driven (autonomous) model representation of the La Rance tidal barrage was developed using novel parametrisation and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) techniques. Our model results were validated with experimental measurements, yielding the first Tidal Range Structure (TRS) model validated against a constructed tidal barrage and made available to academics. In order to proper model La Rance, parametrisation methodologies were developed for simulating (i) turbines (in pumping and power generation modes), (ii) transition ramp functions (for opening and closing hydraulic structures) and (iii) equivalent lagoon wetted area. Furthermore, an updated DRL method was implemented for optimising the operation of the hydraulic structures that compose La Rance. The achieved objective of this work was to verify the capabilities of an AI-Driven TRS model to appropriately predict (i) turbine power and (ii) lagoon water level variations. In addition, the observed operational strategy and yearly energy output of our AI-Driven model appeared to be comparable with those reported for the La Rance tidal barrage. The outcomes of this work (developed methodologies and DRL implementations) are generalisable and can be applied to other TRS projects. Furthermore, this work provided insights which allow for more realistic simulation of TRS operation, enabled through our AI-Driven model.

Túlio Marcondes Moreira, Jackson Geraldo de Faria, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo et al.

Tidal Range Structures (TRS) have been considered for large-scale electricity generation for their potential ability to produce reasonably predictable energy without the emission of greenhouse gases. Once the main forcing components for driving the tides have deterministic dynamics, the available energy in a given TRS has been estimated, through analytical and numerical optimisation routines, as a mostly predictable event. This constraint imposes state-of-art flexible operation methods to rely on tidal predictions to infer best operational strategies for TRS, with the additional cost of requiring to run optimisation routines for every new tide. In this paper, a Deep Reinforcement Learning approach (Proximal Policy Optimisation through Unity ML-Agents) is introduced to perform automatic operation of TRS. For validation, the performance of the proposed method is compared with six different operation optimisation approaches devised from the literature, utilising the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon as a case study. We show that our approach is successful in maximising energy generation through an optimised operational policy of turbines and sluices, yielding competitive results with state-of-art optimisation strategies, with the clear advantages of requiring training once and performing real-time automatic control of TRS with measured ocean data only.

Jeancarlo Campos Leão, Alberto H. F. Laender, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo

Community detection is a key task to further understand the function and the structure of complex networks. Therefore, a strategy used to assess this task must be able to avoid biased and incorrect results that might invalidate further analyses or applications that rely on such communities. Two widely used strategies to assess this task are generally known as structural and functional. The structural strategy basically consists in detecting and assessing such communities by using multiple methods and structural metrics. On the other hand, the functional strategy might be used when ground truth data are available to assess the detected communities. However, the evaluation of communities based on such strategies is usually done in experimental configurations that are largely susceptible to biases, a situation that is inherent to algorithms, metrics and network data used in this task. Furthermore, such strategies are not systematically combined in a way that allows for the identification and mitigation of bias in the algorithms, metrics or network data to converge into more consistent results. In this context, the main contribution of this article is an approach that supports a robust quality evaluation when detecting communities in real-world networks. In our approach, we measure the quality of a community by applying the structural and functional strategies, and the combination of both, to obtain different pieces of evidence. Then, we consider the divergences and the consensus among the pieces of evidence to identify and overcome possible sources of bias in community detection algorithms, evaluation metrics, and network data. Experiments conducted with several real and synthetic networks provided results that show the effectiveness of our approach to obtain more consistent conclusions about the quality of the detected communities.

Niander Assis, Renato Assunção, Pedro O. S. Vaz-De-Melo

Timeout is a short interruption during games used to communicate a change in strategy, to give the players a rest or to stop a negative flow in the game. Whatever the reason, coaches expect an improvement in their team's performance after a timeout. But how effective are these timeouts in doing so? The simple average of the differences between the scores before and after the timeouts has been used as evidence that there is an effect and that it is substantial. We claim that these statistical averages are not proper evidence and a more sound approach is needed. We applied a formal causal framework using a large dataset of official NBA play-by-play tables and drew our assumptions about the data generation process in a causal graph. Using different matching techniques to estimate the causal effect of timeouts, we concluded that timeouts have no effect on teams' performances. Actually, since most timeouts are called when the opposing team is scoring more frequently, the moments that follow resemble an improvement in the team's performance but are just the natural game tendency to return to its average state. This is another example of what statisticians call the regression to the mean phenomenon.

Márcio Silva, Lucas Santos de Oliveira, Athanasios Andreou et al.

The 2016 United States presidential election was marked by the abuse of targeted advertising on Facebook. Concerned with the risk of the same kind of abuse to happen in the 2018 Brazilian elections, we designed and deployed an independent auditing system to monitor political ads on Facebook in Brazil. To do that we first adapted a browser plugin to gather ads from the timeline of volunteers using Facebook. We managed to convince more than 2000 volunteers to help our project and install our tool. Then, we use a Convolution Neural Network (CNN) to detect political Facebook ads using word embeddings. To evaluate our approach, we manually label a data collection of 10k ads as political or non-political and then we provide an in-depth evaluation of proposed approach for identifying political ads by comparing it with classic supervised machine learning methods. Finally, we deployed a real system that shows the ads identified as related to politics. We noticed that not all political ads we detected were present in the Facebook Ad Library for political ads. Our results emphasize the importance of enforcement mechanisms for declaring political ads and the need for independent auditing platforms.

Jeancarlo Campos Leão, Alberto H. F. Laender, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo

Community detection is key to understand the structure of complex networks. However, the lack of appropriate evaluation strategies for this specific task may produce biased and incorrect results that might invalidate further analyses or applications based on such networks. In this context, the main contribution of this paper is an approach that supports a robust quality evaluation when detecting communities in real-world networks. In our approach, we use multiple strategies that capture distinct aspects of the communities. The conclusion on the quality of these communities is based on the consensus among the strategies adopted for the structural evaluation, as well as on the comparison with communities detected by different methods and with their existing ground truths. In this way, our approach allows one to overcome biases in network data, detection algorithms and evaluation metrics, thus providing more consistent conclusions about the quality of the detected communities. Experiments conducted with several real and synthetic networks provided results that show the effectiveness of our approach.

Flavio Figueiredo, Guilherme Borges, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo et al.

We here focus on the task of learning Granger causality matrices for multivariate point processes. In order to accomplish this task, our work is the first to explore the use of Wold processes. By doing so, we are able to develop asymptotically fast MCMC learning algorithms. With $N$ being the total number of events and $K$ the number of processes, our learning algorithm has a $O(N(\,\log(N)\,+\,\log(K)))$ cost per iteration. This is much faster than the $O(N^3\,K^2)$ or $O(K^3)$ for the state of the art. Our approach, called GrangerBusca, is validated on nine datasets. This is an advance in relation to most prior efforts which focus mostly on subsets of the Memetracker data. Regarding accuracy, GrangerBusca is three times more accurate (in Precision@10) than the state of the art for the commonly explored subsets Memetracker. Due to GrangerBusca's much lower training complexity, our approach is the only one able to train models for larger, full, sets of data.

Lucas S. Oliveira, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo, Marcelo S. Amaral et al.

Since June 2013, when Brazil faced the largest and most significant mass protests in a generation, a political crisis is in course. In midst of this crisis, Brazilian politicians use social media to communicate with the electorate in order to retain or to grow their political capital. The problem is that many controversial topics are in course and deputies may prefer to avoid such themes in their messages. To characterize this behavior, we propose a method to accurately identify political and non-political tweets independently of the deputy who posted it and of the time it was posted. Moreover, we collected tweets of all congressmen who were active on Twitter and worked in the Brazilian parliament from October 2013 to October 2017. To evaluate our method, we used word clouds and a topic model to identify the main political and non-political latent topics in parliamentarian tweets. Both results indicate that our proposal is able to accurately distinguish political from non-political tweets. Moreover, our analyses revealed a striking fact: more than half of the messages posted by Brazilian deputies are non-political.

Raquel YS Aoki, Renato M Assuncao, Pedro OS Vaz de Melo

Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of skill. This indicates the relative presence of luck and skill. We collected and analyzed all games from 198 sports leagues comprising 1503 seasons from 84 countries of 4 different sports: basketball, soccer, volleyball and handball. We measured the competitiveness by countries and sports. We also identify in each season which teams, if removed from its league, result in a completely random tournament. Surprisingly, not many of them are needed. As another contribution of this paper, we propose a probabilistic graphical model to learn about the teams' skills and to decompose the relative weights of luck and skill in each game. We break down the skill component into factors associated with the teams' characteristics. The model also allows to estimate as 0.36 the probability that an underdog team wins in the NBA league, with a home advantage adding 0.09 to this probability. As shown in the first part of the paper, luck is substantially present even in the most competitive championships, which partially explains why sophisticated and complex feature-based models hardly beat simple models in the task of forecasting sports' outcomes.

Rodrigo A S Alves, Renato Assunção, Pedro O S Vaz de Melo

The problem to accurately and parsimoniously characterize random series of events (RSEs) present in the Web, such as e-mail conversations or Twitter hashtags, is not trivial. Reports found in the literature reveal two apparent conflicting visions of how RSEs should be modeled. From one side, the Poissonian processes, of which consecutive events follow each other at a relatively regular time and should not be correlated. On the other side, the self-exciting processes, which are able to generate bursts of correlated events and periods of inactivities. The existence of many and sometimes conflicting approaches to model RSEs is a consequence of the unpredictability of the aggregated dynamics of our individual and routine activities, which sometimes show simple patterns, but sometimes results in irregular rising and falling trends. In this paper we propose a highly parsimonious way to characterize general RSEs, namely the Burstiness Scale (BuSca) model. BuSca views each RSE as a mix of two independent process: a Poissonian and a self-exciting one. Here we describe a fast method to extract the two parameters of BuSca that, together, gives the burstyness scale, which represents how much of the RSE is due to bursty and viral effects. We validated our method in eight diverse and large datasets containing real random series of events seen in Twitter, Yelp, e-mail conversations, Digg, and online forums. Results showed that, even using only two parameters, BuSca is able to accurately describe RSEs seen in these diverse systems, what can leverage many applications.

Julio Reis, Fabrıcio Benevenuto, Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo et al.

A growing number of people are changing the way they consume news, replacing the traditional physical newspapers and magazines by their virtual online versions or/and weblogs. The interactivity and immediacy present in online news are changing the way news are being produced and exposed by media corporations. News websites have to create effective strategies to catch people's attention and attract their clicks. In this paper we investigate possible strategies used by online news corporations in the design of their news headlines. We analyze the content of 69,907 headlines produced by four major global media corporations during a minimum of eight consecutive months in 2014. In order to discover strategies that could be used to attract clicks, we extracted features from the text of the news headlines related to the sentiment polarity of the headline. We discovered that the sentiment of the headline is strongly related to the popularity of the news and also with the dynamics of the posted comments on that particular news.

Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo, Christos Faloutsos, Renato Assunção et al.

With the advancement of information systems, means of communications are becoming cheaper, faster and more available. Today, millions of people carrying smart-phones or tablets are able to communicate at practically any time and anywhere they want. Among others, they can access their e-mails, comment on weblogs, watch and post comments on videos, make phone calls or text messages almost ubiquitously. Given this scenario, in this paper we tackle a fundamental aspect of this new era of communication: how the time intervals between communication events behave for different technologies and means of communications? Are there universal patterns for the inter-event time distribution (IED)? In which ways inter-event times behave differently among particular technologies? To answer these questions, we analyze eight different datasets from real and modern communication data and we found four well defined patterns that are seen in all the eight datasets. Moreover, we propose the use of the Self-Feeding Process (SFP) to generate inter-event times between communications. The SFP is extremely parsimonious point process that requires at most two parameters and is able to generate inter-event times with all the universal properties we observed in the data. We show the potential application of SFP by proposing a framework to generate a synthetic dataset containing realistic communication events of any one of the analyzed means of communications (e.g. phone calls, e-mails, comments on blogs) and an algorithm to detect anomalies.