Joanna Hodge

Gricel Vázquez, Calum Imrie, Sepeedeh Shahbeigi et al.

Ensuring reliable performance in situations outside the Operational Design Domain (ODD) remains a primary challenge in devising resilient autonomous systems. We explore this challenge by introducing an approach for adapting probabilistic system models to handle out-of-ODD scenarios while, in parallel, providing quantitative guarantees. Our approach dynamically extends the coverage of existing system situation capabilities, supporting the verification and adaptation of the system's behaviour under unanticipated situations. Preliminary results demonstrate that our approach effectively increases system reliability by adapting its behaviour and providing formal guarantees even under unforeseen out-of-ODD situations.

Yash Deo, Yan Jia, Toni Lassila et al.

Image generative models are known to duplicate images from the training data as part of their outputs, which can lead to privacy concerns when used for medical image generation. We propose a calibrated per-sample metric for detecting memorization and duplication of training data. Our metric uses image features extracted using an MRI foundation model, aggregates multi-layer whitened nearest-neighbor similarities, and maps them to a bounded \emph{Overfit/Novelty Index} (ONI) and \emph{Memorization Index} (MI) scores. Across three MRI datasets with controlled duplication percentages and typical image augmentations, our metric robustly detects duplication and provides more consistent metric values across datasets. At the sample level, our metric achieves near-perfect detection of duplicates.

Adam Katona, Ryan Spick, Victoria Hodge et al.

Esports have become major international sports with hundreds of millions of spectators. Esports games generate massive amounts of telemetry data. Using these to predict the outcome of esports matches has received considerable attention, but micro-predictions, which seek to predict events inside a match, is as yet unknown territory. Micro-predictions are however of perennial interest across esports commentators and audience, because they provide the ability to observe events that might otherwise be missed: esports games are highly complex with fast-moving action where the balance of a game can change in the span of seconds, and where events can happen in multiple areas of the playing field at the same time. Such events can happen rapidly, and it is easy for commentators and viewers alike to miss an event and only observe the following impact of events. In Dota 2, a player hero being killed by the opposing team is a key event of interest to commentators and audience. We present a deep learning network with shared weights which provides accurate death predictions within a five-second window. The network is trained on a vast selection of Dota 2 gameplay features and professional/semi-professional level match dataset. Even though death events are rare within a game (1\% of the data), the model achieves 0.377 precision with 0.725 recall on test data when prompted to predict which of any of the 10 players of either team will die within 5 seconds. An example of the system applied to a Dota 2 match is presented. This model enables real-time micro-predictions of kills in Dota 2, one of the most played esports titles in the world, giving commentators and viewers time to move their attention to these key events.

Victoria J. Hodge, Jim Austin

This paper evaluates algorithms for classification and outlier detection accuracies in temporal data. We focus on algorithms that train and classify rapidly and can be used for systems that need to incorporate new data regularly. Hence, we compare the accuracy of six fast algorithms using a range of well-known time-series datasets. The analyses demonstrate that the choice of algorithm is task and data specific but that we can derive heuristics for choosing. Gradient Boosting Machines are generally best for classification but there is no single winner for outlier detection though Gradient Boosting Machines (again) and Random Forest are better. Hence, we recommend running evaluations of a number of algorithms using our heuristics.

Victoria Hodge, Sam Devlin, Nick Sephton et al.

Esports has emerged as a popular genre for players as well as spectators, supporting a global entertainment industry. Esports analytics has evolved to address the requirement for data-driven feedback, and is focused on cyber-athlete evaluation, strategy and prediction. Towards the latter, previous work has used match data from a variety of player ranks from hobbyist to professional players. However, professional players have been shown to behave differently than lower ranked players. Given the comparatively limited supply of professional data, a key question is thus whether mixed-rank match datasets can be used to create data-driven models which predict winners in professional matches and provide a simple in-game statistic for viewers and broadcasters. Here we show that, although there is a slightly reduced accuracy, mixed-rank datasets can be used to predict the outcome of professional matches, with suitably optimized configurations.