Alexander Moreno

Maxwell A. Xu, Alexander Moreno, Hui Wei et al.

The success of self-supervised contrastive learning hinges on identifying positive data pairs, such that when they are pushed together in embedding space, the space encodes useful information for subsequent downstream tasks. Constructing positive pairs is non-trivial as the pairing must be similar enough to reflect a shared semantic meaning, but different enough to capture within-class variation. Classical approaches in vision use augmentations to exploit well-established invariances to construct positive pairs, but invariances in the time-series domain are much less obvious. In our work, we propose a novel method of using a learned measure for identifying positive pairs. Our Retrieval-Based Reconstruction (REBAR) measure measures the similarity between two sequences as the reconstruction error that results from reconstructing one sequence with retrieved information from the other. Then, if the two sequences have high REBAR similarity, we label them as a positive pair. Through validation experiments, we show that the REBAR error is a predictor of mutual class membership. Once integrated into a contrastive learning framework, our REBAR method learns an embedding that achieves state-of-the-art performance on downstream tasks across various modalities.

Maxwell A. Xu, Alexander Moreno, Supriya Nagesh et al.

The promise of Mobile Health (mHealth) is the ability to use wearable sensors to monitor participant physiology at high frequencies during daily life to enable temporally-precise health interventions. However, a major challenge is frequent missing data. Despite a rich imputation literature, existing techniques are ineffective for the pulsative signals which comprise many mHealth applications, and a lack of available datasets has stymied progress. We address this gap with PulseImpute, the first large-scale pulsative signal imputation challenge which includes realistic mHealth missingness models, an extensive set of baselines, and clinically-relevant downstream tasks. Our baseline models include a novel transformer-based architecture designed to exploit the structure of pulsative signals. We hope that PulseImpute will enable the ML community to tackle this significant and challenging task.

Zhoujun Cheng, Richard Fan, Shibo Hao et al.

K2-Think is a reasoning system that achieves state-of-the-art performance with a 32B parameter model, matching or surpassing much larger models like GPT-OSS 120B and DeepSeek v3.1. Built on the Qwen2.5 base model, our system shows that smaller models can compete at the highest levels by combining advanced post-training and test-time computation techniques. The approach is based on six key technical pillars: Long Chain-of-thought Supervised Finetuning, Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), Agentic planning prior to reasoning, Test-time Scaling, Speculative Decoding, and Inference-optimized Hardware, all using publicly available open-source datasets. K2-Think excels in mathematical reasoning, achieving state-of-the-art scores on public benchmarks for open-source models, while also performing strongly in other areas such as Code and Science. Our results confirm that a more parameter-efficient model like K2-Think 32B can compete with state-of-the-art systems through an integrated post-training recipe that includes long chain-of-thought training and strategic inference-time enhancements, making open-source reasoning systems more accessible and affordable. K2-Think is freely available at k2think.ai, offering best-in-class inference speeds of over 2,000 tokens per second per request via the Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine.

Kyle R. Chickering, Huijuan Wang, Mengxi Wu et al.

Hyperparameter transfer across model architectures dramatically reduces the amount of compute necessary for tuning large language models (LLMs). The maximal update parameterization (μP) ensures transfer through principled mathematical analysis but can be challenging to derive for new model architectures. Building on the spectral feature-learning view of Yang et al. (2023a), we make two advances. First, we promote spectral norm conditions on the weights from a heuristic to the definition of feature learning, and as a consequence arrive at the Complete-P depth and weight-decay scalings without recourse to lazy-learning. Second, we consider a modified spectral norm that preserves the valid scaling law of network weights when weight matrices are not full rank. This enables (to our knowledge, the first) derivation of μP scalings for grouped-query attention (GQA). We demonstrate the efficacy of our theoretical derivations by showing learning rate transfer across the GQA repetition hyperparameter as well as experiments regarding transfer over weight decay.

K2 Team, Zhengzhong Liu, Liping Tang et al.

We introduce K2-V2, a 360-open LLM built from scratch as a superior base for reasoning adaptation, in addition to functions such as conversation and knowledge retrieval from general LLMs. It stands as the strongest fully open model, rivals open-weight leaders in its size class, outperforms Qwen2.5-72B and approaches the performance of Qwen3-235B. We actively infuse domain knowledge, reasoning, long-context, and tool use throughout the training process. This explicitly prepares the model for complex reasoning tasks. We demonstrate this potential using simple supervised fine-tuning, establishing a strong baseline that indicates significant headroom for advanced alignment. By releasing the full training history and data composition, we maximize the effectiveness of continuous training, a key open source production scenario. We release the model weights and signature LLM360 artifacts, such as complete training data, to empower the community with a capable, reasoning-centric foundation.

Kevin Gao, Maxwell A. Xu, James M. Rehg et al.

We introduce PyPulse, a Python package for imputation of biosignals in both clinical and wearable sensor settings. Missingness is commonplace in these settings and can arise from multiple causes, such as insecure sensor attachment or data transmission loss. PyPulse's framework provides a modular and extendable framework with high ease-of-use for a broad userbase, including non-machine-learning bioresearchers. Specifically, its new capabilities include using pre-trained imputation methods out-of-the-box on custom datasets, running the full workflow of training or testing a baseline method with a single line of code, and comparing baseline methods in an interactive visualization tool. We released PyPulse under the MIT License on Github and PyPI. The source code can be found at: https://github.com/rehg-lab/pulseimpute.

Easton K. Huch, Jieru Shi, Madeline R. Abbott et al.

Mobile health leverages personalized and contextually tailored interventions optimized through bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms. In practice, however, challenges such as participant heterogeneity, nonstationarity, and nonlinear relationships hinder algorithm performance. We propose RoME, a Robust Mixed-Effects contextual bandit algorithm that simultaneously addresses these challenges via (1) modeling the differential reward with user- and time-specific random effects, (2) network cohesion penalties, and (3) debiased machine learning for flexible estimation of baseline rewards. We establish a high-probability regret bound that depends solely on the dimension of the differential-reward model, enabling us to achieve robust regret bounds even when the baseline reward is highly complex. We demonstrate the superior performance of the RoME algorithm in a simulation and two off-policy evaluation studies.

Alexander Moreno, Justin Xiao, Jonathan Mei

Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) (Wilson et al. 2015) helps scale Gaussian Processes (GPs) by approximating the kernel matrix via interpolation at inducing points, achieving linear computational complexity. However, it lacks rigorous theoretical error analysis. This paper bridges the gap: we prove error bounds for the SKI Gram matrix and examine the error's effect on hyperparameter estimation and posterior inference. We further provide a practical guide to selecting the number of inducing points under convolutional cubic interpolation: they should grow as $n^{d/3}$ for error control. Crucially, we identify two dimensionality regimes governing the trade-off between SKI Gram matrix spectral norm error and computational complexity. For $d \leq 3$, any error tolerance can achieve linear time for sufficiently large sample size. For $d > 3$, the error must increase with sample size to maintain linear time. Our analysis provides key insights into SKI's scalability-accuracy trade-offs, establishing precise conditions for achieving linear-time GP inference with controlled approximation error.

Jonathan Mei, Alexander Moreno, Luke Walters

Second order stochastic optimizers allow parameter update step size and direction to adapt to loss curvature, but have traditionally required too much memory and compute for deep learning. Recently, Shampoo [Gupta et al., 2018] introduced a Kronecker factored preconditioner to reduce these requirements: it is used for large deep models [Anil et al., 2020] and in production [Anil et al., 2022]. However, it takes inverse matrix roots of ill-conditioned matrices. This requires 64-bit precision, imposing strong hardware constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel factorization, Kronecker Approximation-Domination (KrAD). Using KrAD, we update a matrix that directly approximates the inverse empirical Fisher matrix (like full matrix AdaGrad), avoiding inversion and hence 64-bit precision. We then propose KrADagrad$^\star$, with similar computational costs to Shampoo and the same regret. Synthetic ill-conditioned experiments show improved performance over Shampoo for 32-bit precision, while for several real datasets we have comparable or better generalization.

Alexander Moreno, Jonathan Mei, Luke Walters

Toeplitz Neural Networks (TNNs) (Qin et. al. 2023) are a recent sequence model with impressive results. They require O(n log n) computational complexity and O(n) relative positional encoder (RPE) multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and decay bias calls. We aim to reduce both. We first note that the RPE is a non-SPD (symmetric positive definite) kernel and the Toeplitz matrices are pseudo-Gram matrices. Further 1) the learned kernels display spiky behavior near the main diagonals with otherwise smooth behavior; 2) the RPE MLP is slow. For bidirectional models, this motivates a sparse plus low-rank Toeplitz matrix decomposition. For the sparse component's action, we do a small 1D convolution. For the low rank component, we replace the RPE MLP with linear interpolation and use asymmetric Structured Kernel Interpolation (SKI) (Wilson et. al. 2015) for O(n) complexity: we provide rigorous error analysis. For causal models, "fast" causal masking (Katharopoulos et. al. 2020) negates SKI's benefits. Working in the frequency domain, we avoid an explicit decay bias. To enforce causality, we represent the kernel via the real part of its frequency response using the RPE and compute the imaginary part via a Hilbert transform. This maintains O(n log n) complexity but achieves an absolute speedup. Modeling the frequency response directly is also competitive for bidirectional training, using one fewer FFT. We set a speed state of the art on Long Range Arena (Tay et. al. 2020) with minimal score degradation.

Alexander Moreno, Supriya Nagesh, Zhenke Wu et al.

Attention mechanisms take an expectation of a data representation with respect to probability weights. This creates summary statistics that focus on important features. Recently, (Martins et al. 2020, 2021) proposed continuous attention mechanisms, focusing on unimodal attention densities from the exponential and deformed exponential families: the latter has sparse support. (Farinhas et al. 2021) extended this to use Gaussian mixture attention densities, which are a flexible class with dense support. In this paper, we extend this to two general flexible classes: kernel exponential families and our new sparse counterpart kernel deformed exponential families. Theoretically, we show new existence results for both kernel exponential and deformed exponential families, and that the deformed case has similar approximation capabilities to kernel exponential families. Experiments show that kernel deformed exponential families can attend to multiple compact regions of the data domain.

Supriya Nagesh, Alexander Moreno, Stephanie M. Carpenter et al.

Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMAs) are an important psychological data source for measuring current cognitive states, affect, behavior, and environmental factors from participants in mobile health (mHealth) studies and treatment programs. Non-response, in which participants fail to respond to EMA prompts, is an endemic problem. The ability to accurately predict non-response could be utilized to improve EMA delivery and develop compliance interventions. Prior work has explored classical machine learning models for predicting non-response. However, as increasingly large EMA datasets become available, there is the potential to leverage deep learning models that have been effective in other fields. Recently, transformer models have shown state-of-the-art performance in NLP and other domains. This work is the first to explore the use of transformers for EMA data analysis. We address three key questions in applying transformers to EMA data: 1. Input representation, 2. encoding temporal information, 3. utility of pre-training on improving downstream prediction task performance. The transformer model achieves a non-response prediction AUC of 0.77 and is significantly better than classical ML and LSTM-based deep learning models. We will make our a predictive model trained on a corpus of 40K EMA samples freely-available to the research community, in order to facilitate the development of future transformer-based EMA analysis works.

Yu-Ying Liu, Alexander Moreno, Maxwell A. Xu et al.

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models, as well as the first solution to decoding the optimal state transition sequence and the corresponding state dwelling time. We show that EM-based learning consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem as an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three distinct approaches from the continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) literature to the CT-HMM domain. Additionally, we further improve the efficiency of the most efficient method by a factor of the number of states. Then, for decoding, we incorporate a state-of-the-art method from the (CTMC) literature, and extend the end-state conditioned optimal state sequence decoding to the CT-HMM case with the computation of the expected state dwelling time. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer's disease dataset, and to decode and visualize the most probable state transition trajectory for individuals on the glaucoma dataset, which helps to identify progressing phenotypes in a comprehensive way. Finally, we apply the CT-HMM modeling and decoding strategy to investigate the progression of language acquisition and development.

Alexander Moreno, Zhenke Wu, Jamie Yap et al.

Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count data collected via multiple self reports, for example, about frequencies of smoking using in-the-moment surveys on mobile devices. However, missing reports are common and present a major barrier to downstream statistical learning. As a first step, under a missing completely at random assumption (MCAR), we propose a simple yet widely applicable functional EM algorithm to estimate the counting process mean function, which is of central interest to behavioral scientists. The proposed approach wraps several popular panel count inference methods, seamlessly deals with incomplete counts and is robust to misspecification of the Poisson process assumption. Theoretical analysis of the proposed algorithm provides finite-sample guarantees by expanding parametric EM theory to our general non-parametric setting. We illustrate the utility of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments and an analysis of smoking cessation data. We also discuss useful extensions to address deviations from the MCAR assumption and covariate effects.

Alexander Moreno, Tameem Adel, Edward Meeds et al.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient estimators, and this problem is exacerbated by approximating the likelihood. We draw upon recent advances in variance reduction for SV and likelihood-free inference using deterministic simulations to produce low variance gradient estimators of the variational lower-bound. By then exploiting automatic differentiation libraries we can avoid nearly all model-specific derivations. We demonstrate performance on three problems and compare to existing SVI algorithms. Our results demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of our algorithm.