João Paulo Nogueira

João Paulo Nogueira, Wentao Sun, Alonso Silva et al.

The rise of large reasoning language models (LRLMs) has unlocked new potential for solving complex tasks. These models operate with a thinking budget, that is, a predefined number of reasoning tokens used to arrive at a solution. We propose a novel approach, inspired by the generator/discriminator framework in generative adversarial networks, in which a critic model periodically probes its own reasoning to assess whether it has reached a confident conclusion. If not, reasoning continues until a target certainty threshold is met. This mechanism adaptively balances efficiency and reliability by allowing early termination when confidence is high, while encouraging further reasoning when uncertainty persists. Through experiments on the AIME2024 and AIME2025 datasets, we show that Certainty-Guided Reasoning (CGR) improves baseline accuracy while reducing token usage. Importantly, extended multi-seed evaluations over 64 runs demonstrate that CGR is stable, reducing variance across seeds and improving exam-like performance under penalty-based grading. Additionally, our token savings analysis shows that CGR can eliminate millions of tokens in aggregate, with tunable trade-offs between certainty thresholds and efficiency. Together, these findings highlight certainty as a powerful signal for reasoning sufficiency. By integrating confidence into the reasoning process, CGR makes large reasoning language models more adaptive, trustworthy, and resource efficient, paving the way for practical deployment in domains where both accuracy and computational cost matter.

Wentao Sun, João Paulo Nogueira, Alonso Silva

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.