Benjamin M. Marlin

Maxwell A. Xu, Alexander Moreno, Hui Wei et al.

The success of self-supervised contrastive learning hinges on identifying positive data pairs, such that when they are pushed together in embedding space, the space encodes useful information for subsequent downstream tasks. Constructing positive pairs is non-trivial as the pairing must be similar enough to reflect a shared semantic meaning, but different enough to capture within-class variation. Classical approaches in vision use augmentations to exploit well-established invariances to construct positive pairs, but invariances in the time-series domain are much less obvious. In our work, we propose a novel method of using a learned measure for identifying positive pairs. Our Retrieval-Based Reconstruction (REBAR) measure measures the similarity between two sequences as the reconstruction error that results from reconstructing one sequence with retrieved information from the other. Then, if the two sequences have high REBAR similarity, we label them as a positive pair. Through validation experiments, we show that the REBAR error is a predictor of mutual class membership. Once integrated into a contrastive learning framework, our REBAR method learns an embedding that achieves state-of-the-art performance on downstream tasks across various modalities.

Colin Samplawski, Shiwei Fang, Ziqi Wang et al.

Visual object tracking has seen significant progress in recent years. However, the vast majority of this work focuses on tracking objects within the image plane of a single camera and ignores the uncertainty associated with predicted object locations. In this work, we focus on the geospatial object tracking problem using data from a distributed camera network. The goal is to predict an object's track in geospatial coordinates along with uncertainty over the object's location while respecting communication constraints that prohibit centralizing raw image data. We present a novel single-object geospatial tracking data set that includes high-accuracy ground truth object locations and video data from a network of four cameras. We present a modeling framework for addressing this task including a novel backbone model and explore how uncertainty calibration and fine-tuning through a differentiable tracker affect performance.

Karine Tung, Steven De La Torre, Mohamed El Mistiri et al.

In this paper we present BayesLDM, a system for Bayesian longitudinal data modeling consisting of a high-level modeling language with specific features for modeling complex multivariate time series data coupled with a compiler that can produce optimized probabilistic program code for performing inference in the specified model. BayesLDM supports modeling of Bayesian network models with a specific focus on the efficient, declarative specification of dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The BayesLDM compiler combines a model specification with inspection of available data and outputs code for performing Bayesian inference for unknown model parameters while simultaneously handling missing data. These capabilities have the potential to significantly accelerate iterative modeling workflows in domains that involve the analysis of complex longitudinal data by abstracting away the process of producing computationally efficient probabilistic inference code. We describe the BayesLDM system components, evaluate the efficiency of representation and inference optimizations and provide an illustrative example of the application of the system to analyzing heterogeneous and partially observed mobile health data.

Meet P. Vadera, Adam D. Cobb, Brian Jalaian et al.

While deep learning methods continue to improve in predictive accuracy on a wide range of application domains, significant issues remain with other aspects of their performance including their ability to quantify uncertainty and their robustness. Recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference hold significant promise for addressing these concerns, but the computational scalability of these methods can be problematic when applied to large-scale models. In this paper, we describe initial work on the development ofURSABench(the Uncertainty, Robustness, Scalability, and Accu-racy Benchmark), an open-source suite of bench-marking tools for comprehensive assessment of approximate Bayesian inference methods with a focus on deep learning-based classification tasks

Karine Karine, Benjamin M. Marlin

Reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly being used in the healthcare domain, particularly for the development of personalized health adaptive interventions. Inspired by the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), we are interested in using LLMs to update the RL policy in real time, with the goal of accelerating personalization. We use the text-based user preference to influence the action selection on the fly, in order to immediately incorporate the user preference. We use the term "user preference" as a broad term to refer to a user personal preference, constraint, health status, or a statement expressing like or dislike, etc. Our novel approach is a hybrid method that combines the LLM response and the RL action selection to improve the RL policy. Given an LLM prompt that incorporates the user preference, the LLM acts as a filter in the typical RL action selection. We investigate different prompting strategies and action selection strategies. To evaluate our approach, we implement a simulation environment that generates the text-based user preferences and models the constraints that impact behavioral dynamics. We show that our approach is able to take into account the text-based user preferences, while improving the RL policy, thus improving personalization in adaptive intervention.

Karine Karine, Benjamin M. Marlin

The use of reinforcement learning (RL) to learn policies for just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) is of significant interest in many behavioral intervention domains including improving levels of physical activity. In a messaging-based physical activity JITAI, a mobile health app is typically used to send messages to a participant to encourage engagement in physical activity. In this setting, RL methods can be used to learn what intervention options to provide to a participant in different contexts. However, deploying RL methods in real physical activity adaptive interventions comes with challenges: the cost and time constraints of real intervention studies result in limited data to learn adaptive intervention policies. Further, commonly used RL simulation environments have dynamics that are of limited relevance to physical activity adaptive interventions and thus shed little light on what RL methods may be optimal for this challenging application domain. In this paper, we introduce StepCountJITAI, an RL environment designed to foster research on RL methods that address the significant challenges of policy learning for adaptive behavioral interventions.

Karine Karine, Susan A. Murphy, Benjamin M. Marlin

In settings where the application of reinforcement learning (RL) requires running real-world trials, including the optimization of adaptive health interventions, the number of episodes available for learning can be severely limited due to cost or time constraints. In this setting, the bias-variance trade-off of contextual bandit methods can be significantly better than that of more complex full RL methods. However, Thompson sampling bandits are limited to selecting actions based on distributions of immediate rewards. In this paper, we extend the linear Thompson sampling bandit to select actions based on a state-action utility function consisting of the Thompson sampler's estimate of the expected immediate reward combined with an action bias term. We use batch Bayesian optimization over episodes to learn the action bias terms with the goal of maximizing the expected return of the extended Thompson sampler. The proposed approach is able to learn optimal policies for a strictly broader class of Markov decision processes (MDPs) than standard Thompson sampling. Using an adaptive intervention simulation environment that captures key aspects of behavioral dynamics, we show that the proposed method can significantly out-perform standard Thompson sampling in terms of total return, while requiring significantly fewer episodes than standard value function and policy gradient methods.

Oliver Daniels, Stuart Armstrong, Alexandre Maranhão et al.

Deep neural networks are notoriously sensitive to spurious correlations - where a model learns a shortcut that fails out-of-distribution. Existing work on spurious correlations has often focused on incomplete correlations,leveraging access to labeled instances that break the correlation. But in cases where the spurious correlations are complete, the correct generalization is fundamentally \textit{underspecified}. To resolve this underspecification, we propose learning a set of concepts that are consistent with training data but make distinct predictions on a subset of novel unlabeled inputs. Using a self-training approach that encourages \textit{confident} and \textit{selective} disagreement, our method ACE matches or outperforms existing methods on a suite of complete-spurious correlation benchmarks, while remaining robust to incomplete spurious correlations. ACE is also more configurable than prior approaches, allowing for straight-forward encoding of prior knowledge and principled unsupervised model selection. In an early application to language-model alignment, we find that ACE achieves competitive performance on the measurement tampering detection benchmark \textit{without} access to untrusted measurements. While still subject to important limitations, ACE represents significant progress towards overcoming underspecification.

Asim H. Gazi, Bhanu Teja Gullapalli, Daiqi Gao et al.

Timely decision making is critical to the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) interventions. At predefined timepoints called "decision points," intelligent mHealth systems such as just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) estimate an individual's biobehavioral context from sensor or survey data and determine whether and how to intervene. For interventions targeting habitual behavior (e.g., oral hygiene), effectiveness often hinges on delivering support shortly before the target behavior is likely to occur. Current practice schedules decision points at a fixed interval (e.g., one hour) before user-provided behavior times, and the fixed interval is kept the same for all individuals. However, this one-size-fits-all approach performs poorly for individuals with irregular routines, often scheduling decision points after the target behavior has already occurred, rendering interventions ineffective. In this paper, we propose SigmaScheduling, a method to dynamically schedule decision points based on uncertainty in predicted behavior times. When behavior timing is more predictable, SigmaScheduling schedules decision points closer to the predicted behavior time; when timing is less certain, SigmaScheduling schedules decision points earlier, increasing the likelihood of timely intervention. We evaluated SigmaScheduling using real-world data from 68 participants in a 10-week trial of Oralytics, a JITAI designed to improve daily toothbrushing. SigmaScheduling increased the likelihood that decision points preceded brushing events in at least 70% of cases, preserving opportunities to intervene and impact behavior. Our results indicate that SigmaScheduling can advance precision mHealth, particularly for JITAIs targeting time-sensitive, habitual behaviors such as oral hygiene or dietary habits.

Karine Karine, Benjamin M. Marlin

The use of reinforcement learning (RL) methods to support health behavior change via personalized and just-in-time adaptive interventions is of significant interest to health and behavioral science researchers focused on problems such as smoking cessation support and physical activity promotion. However, RL methods are often applied to these domains using a small collection of context variables to mitigate the significant data scarcity issues that arise from practical limitations on the design of adaptive intervention trials. In this paper, we explore an approach to significantly expanding the state space of an adaptive intervention without impacting data efficiency. The proposed approach enables intervention participants to provide natural language descriptions of aspects of their current state. It then leverages inference with pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to better align the policy of a base RL method with these state descriptions. To evaluate our method, we develop a novel physical activity intervention simulation environment that generates text-based state descriptions conditioned on latent state variables using an auxiliary LLM. We show that this approach has the potential to significantly improve the performance of online policy learning methods.

Hui Wei, Maxwell A. Xu, Colin Samplawski et al.

Wearable sensors enable health researchers to continuously collect data pertaining to the physiological state of individuals in real-world settings. However, such data can be subject to extensive missingness due to a complex combination of factors. In this work, we study the problem of imputation of missing step count data, one of the most ubiquitous forms of wearable sensor data. We construct a novel and large scale data set consisting of a training set with over 3 million hourly step count observations and a test set with over 2.5 million hourly step count observations. We propose a domain knowledge-informed sparse self-attention model for this task that captures the temporal multi-scale nature of step-count data. We assess the performance of the model relative to baselines and conduct ablation studies to verify our specific model designs.

Karine Karine, Predrag Klasnja, Susan A. Murphy et al.

Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions (JITAIs) are a class of personalized health interventions developed within the behavioral science community. JITAIs aim to provide the right type and amount of support by iteratively selecting a sequence of intervention options from a pre-defined set of components in response to each individual's time varying state. In this work, we explore the application of reinforcement learning methods to the problem of learning intervention option selection policies. We study the effect of context inference error and partial observability on the ability to learn effective policies. Our results show that the propagation of uncertainty from context inferences is critical to improving intervention efficacy as context uncertainty increases, while policy gradient algorithms can provide remarkable robustness to partially observed behavioral state information.

Meet P. Vadera, Adam D. Cobb, Brian Jalaian et al.

Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods for deep neural networks, building on both the variational Bayesian and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) frameworks. A fundamental issue with MCMC methods is that the improvements they enable are obtained at the expense of increased computation time and model storage costs. In this paper, we investigate the potential of sparse network structures to flexibly trade-off model storage costs and inference run time against predictive performance and uncertainty quantification ability. We use stochastic gradient MCMC methods as the core Bayesian inference method and consider a variety of approaches for selecting sparse network structures. Surprisingly, our results show that certain classes of randomly selected substructures can perform as well as substructures derived from state-of-the-art iterative pruning methods while drastically reducing model training times.

Meet P. Vadera, Benjamin M. Marlin

Approximate Bayesian deep learning methods hold significant promise for addressing several issues that occur when deploying deep learning components in intelligent systems, including mitigating the occurrence of over-confident errors and providing enhanced robustness to out of distribution examples. However, the computational requirements of existing approximate Bayesian inference methods can make them ill-suited for deployment in intelligent IoT systems that include lower-powered edge devices. In this paper, we present a range of approximate Bayesian inference methods for supervised deep learning and highlight the challenges and opportunities when applying these methods on current edge hardware. We highlight several potential solutions to decreasing model storage requirements and improving computational scalability, including model pruning and distillation methods.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

Irregularly sampled time series commonly occur in several domains where they present a significant challenge to standard deep learning models. In this paper, we propose a new deep learning framework for probabilistic interpolation of irregularly sampled time series that we call the Heteroscedastic Temporal Variational Autoencoder (HeTVAE). HeTVAE includes a novel input layer to encode information about input observation sparsity, a temporal VAE architecture to propagate uncertainty due to input sparsity, and a heteroscedastic output layer to enable variable uncertainty in output interpolations. Our results show that the proposed architecture is better able to reflect variable uncertainty through time due to sparse and irregular sampling than a range of baseline and traditional models, as well as recently proposed deep latent variable models that use homoscedastic output layers.

Meet P. Vadera, Soumya Ghosh, Kenney Ng et al.

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are approximated with, potentially crude, surrogates. This difficulty has engendered loss-calibrated techniques that aim to learn posterior approximations that favor high-utility decisions. In this paper, focusing on Bayesian neural networks, we develop methods for correcting approximate posterior predictive distributions encouraging them to prefer high-utility decisions. In contrast to previous work, our approach is agnostic to the choice of the approximate inference algorithm, allows for efficient test time decision making through amortization, and empirically produces higher quality decisions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through controlled experiments spanning a diversity of tasks and datasets.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

Irregular sampling occurs in many time series modeling applications where it presents a significant challenge to standard deep learning models. This work is motivated by the analysis of physiological time series data in electronic health records, which are sparse, irregularly sampled, and multivariate. In this paper, we propose a new deep learning framework for this setting that we call Multi-Time Attention Networks. Multi-Time Attention Networks learn an embedding of continuous-time values and use an attention mechanism to produce a fixed-length representation of a time series containing a variable number of observations. We investigate the performance of this framework on interpolation and classification tasks using multiple datasets. Our results show that the proposed approach performs as well or better than a range of baseline and recently proposed models while offering significantly faster training times than current state-of-the-art methods.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Steven Cheng-Xian Li, Benjamin M. Marlin

Irregularly-sampled time series occur in many domains including healthcare. They can be challenging to model because they do not naturally yield a fixed-dimensional representation as required by many standard machine learning models. In this paper, we consider irregular sampling from the perspective of missing data. We model observed irregularly-sampled time series data as a sequence of index-value pairs sampled from a continuous but unobserved function. We introduce an encoder-decoder framework for learning from such generic indexed sequences. We propose learning methods for this framework based on variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks. For continuous irregularly-sampled time series, we introduce continuous convolutional layers that can efficiently interface with existing neural network architectures. Experiments show that our models are able to achieve competitive or better classification results on irregularly-sampled multivariate time series compared to recent RNN models while offering significantly faster training times.

Meet P. Vadera, Brian Jalaian, Benjamin M. Marlin

In this paper, we present a general framework for distilling expectations with respect to the Bayesian posterior distribution of a deep neural network classifier, extending prior work on the Bayesian Dark Knowledge framework. The proposed framework takes as input "teacher" and student model architectures and a general posterior expectation of interest. The distillation method performs an online compression of the selected posterior expectation using iteratively generated Monte Carlo samples. We focus on the posterior predictive distribution and expected entropy as distillation targets. We investigate several aspects of this framework including the impact of uncertainty and the choice of student model architecture. We study methods for student model architecture search from a speed-storage-accuracy perspective and evaluate down-stream tasks leveraging entropy distillation including uncertainty ranking and out-of-distribution detection.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

Intensive Care Unit Electronic Health Records (ICU EHRs) store multimodal data about patients including clinical notes, sparse and irregularly sampled physiological time series, lab results, and more. To date, most methods designed to learn predictive models from ICU EHR data have focused on a single modality. In this paper, we leverage the recently proposed interpolation-prediction deep learning architecture(Shukla and Marlin 2019) as a basis for exploring how physiological time series data and clinical notes can be integrated into a unified mortality prediction model. We study both early and late fusion approaches and demonstrate how the relative predictive value of clinical text and physiological data change over time. Our results show that a late fusion approach can provide a statistically significant improvement in mortality prediction performance over using individual modalities in isolation.

Meet P. Vadera, Satya Narayan Shukla, Brian Jalaian et al.

In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing the adversarial robustness of deep neural network models under both Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Bayesian Dark Knowledge (BDK) inference approximations. We characterize the robustness of each method to two types of adversarial attacks: the fast gradient sign method (FGSM) and projected gradient descent (PGD). We show that full MCMC-based inference has excellent robustness, significantly outperforming standard point estimation-based learning. On the other hand, BDK provides marginal improvements. As an additional contribution, we present a storage-efficient approach to computing adversarial examples for large Monte Carlo ensembles using both the FGSM and PGD attacks.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

In this paper, we present a new deep learning architecture for addressing the problem of supervised learning with sparse and irregularly sampled multivariate time series. The architecture is based on the use of a semi-parametric interpolation network followed by the application of a prediction network. The interpolation network allows for information to be shared across multiple dimensions of a multivariate time series during the interpolation stage, while any standard deep learning model can be used for the prediction network. This work is motivated by the analysis of physiological time series data in electronic health records, which are sparse, irregularly sampled, and multivariate. We investigate the performance of this architecture on both classification and regression tasks, showing that our approach outperforms a range of baseline and recently proposed models.

Meet P. Vadera, Benjamin M. Marlin

Bayesian Dark Knowledge is a method for compressing the posterior predictive distribution of a neural network model into a more compact form. Specifically, the method attempts to compress a Monte Carlo approximation to the parameter posterior into a single network representing the posterior predictive distribution. Further, the authors show that this approach is successful in the classification setting using a student network whose architecture matches that of a single network in the teacher ensemble. In this work, we examine the robustness of Bayesian Dark Knowledge to higher levels of posterior uncertainty. We show that using a student network that matches the teacher architecture may fail to yield acceptable performance. We study an approach to close the resulting performance gap by increasing student model capacity.

Colin Samplawski, Heesung Kwon, Erik Learned-Miller et al.

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) is one of the most extreme forms of learning from scarce labeled data. It enables predicting that images belong to classes for which no labeled training instances are available. In this paper, we present a new ZSL framework that leverages both label attribute side information and a semantic label hierarchy. We present two methods, lifted zero-shot prediction and a custom conditional random field (CRF) model, that integrate both forms of side information. We propose benchmark tasks for this framework that focus on making predictions across a range of semantic levels. We show that lifted zero-shot prediction can dramatically outperform baseline methods when making predictions within specified semantic levels, and that the probability distribution provided by the CRF model can be leveraged to yield further performance improvements when making unconstrained predictions over the hierarchy.

Satya Narayan Shukla, Benjamin M. Marlin

While the volume of electronic health records (EHR) data continues to grow, it remains rare for hospital systems to capture dense physiological data streams, even in the data-rich intensive care unit setting. Instead, typical EHR records consist of sparse and irregularly observed multivariate time series, which are well understood to present particularly challenging problems for machine learning methods. In this paper, we present a new deep learning architecture for addressing this problem based on the use of a semi-parametric interpolation network followed by the application of a prediction network. The interpolation network allows for information to be shared across multiple dimensions during the interpolation stage, while any standard deep learning model can be used for the prediction network. We investigate the performance of this architecture on the problems of mortality and length of stay prediction.

Roy J. Adams, Benjamin M. Marlin

In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class events. Such temporally imprecise labels commonly occur in areas like mobile health research where human annotators are tasked with labeling the occurrence of very short duration events. We propose a general learning framework for this problem that can accommodate different base classifiers and noise models. We present results on real mobile health data showing that the proposed framework significantly outperforms a number of alternatives including assuming that the label time stamps are noise-free, transforming the problem into the multiple instance learning framework, and learning on labels that were manually re-aligned.

Hamid Dadkhahi, Benjamin M. Marlin

In this paper, we present a new approach to learning cascaded classifiers for use in computing environments that involve networks of heterogeneous and resource-constrained, low-power embedded compute and sensing nodes. We present a generalization of the classical linear detection cascade to the case of tree-structured cascades where different branches of the tree execute on different physical compute nodes in the network. Different nodes have access to different features, as well as access to potentially different computation and energy resources. We concentrate on the problem of jointly learning the parameters for all of the classifiers in the cascade given a fixed cascade architecture and a known set of costs required to carry out the computation at each node.To accomplish the objective of joint learning of all detectors, we propose a novel approach to combining classifier outputs during training that better matches the hard cascade setting in which the learned system will be deployed. This work is motivated by research in the area of mobile health where energy efficient real time detectors integrating information from multiple wireless on-body sensors and a smart phone are needed for real-time monitoring and delivering just- in-time adaptive interventions. We apply our framework to two activity recognition datasets as well as the problem of cigarette smoking detection from a combination of wrist-worn actigraphy data and respiration chest band data.