David Rohde

Otmane Sakhi, David Rohde, Nicolas Chopin

An increasingly important building block of large scale machine learning systems is based on returning slates; an ordered lists of items given a query. Applications of this technology include: search, information retrieval and recommender systems. When the action space is large, decision systems are restricted to a particular structure to complete online queries quickly. This paper addresses the optimization of these large scale decision systems given an arbitrary reward function. We cast this learning problem in a policy optimization framework and propose a new class of policies, born from a novel relaxation of decision functions. This results in a simple, yet efficient learning algorithm that scales to massive action spaces. We compare our method to the commonly adopted Plackett-Luce policy class and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on problems with action space sizes in the order of millions.

Alexandre Gilotte, Ahmed Ben Yahmed, David Rohde

Aggregating a dataset, then injecting some noise, is a simple and common way to release differentially private data.However, aggregated data -- even without noise -- is not an appropriate input for machine learning classifiers.In this work, we show how a new model, similar to a logistic regression, may be learned from aggregated data only by approximating the unobserved feature distribution with a maximum entropy hypothesis. The resulting model is a Markov Random Field (MRF), and we detail how to apply, modify and scale a MRF training algorithm to our setting. Finally we present empirical evidence on several public datasets that the model learned this way can achieve performances comparable to those of a logistic model trained with the full unaggregated data.

Imad Aouali, Victor-Emmanuel Brunel, David Rohde et al.

In interactive systems, actions are often correlated, presenting an opportunity for more sample-efficient off-policy evaluation (OPE) and learning (OPL) in large action spaces. We introduce a unified Bayesian framework to capture these correlations through structured and informative priors. In this framework, we propose sDM, a generic Bayesian approach for OPE and OPL, grounded in both algorithmic and theoretical foundations. Notably, sDM leverages action correlations without compromising computational efficiency. Moreover, inspired by online Bayesian bandits, we introduce Bayesian metrics that assess the average performance of algorithms across multiple problem instances, deviating from the conventional worst-case assessments. We analyze sDM in OPE and OPL, highlighting the benefits of leveraging action correlations. Empirical evidence showcases the strong performance of sDM.

Imad Aouali, Victor-Emmanuel Brunel, David Rohde et al.

Off-policy learning (OPL) often involves minimizing a risk estimator based on importance weighting to correct bias from the logging policy used to collect data. However, this method can produce an estimator with a high variance. A common solution is to regularize the importance weights and learn the policy by minimizing an estimator with penalties derived from generalization bounds specific to the estimator. This approach, known as pessimism, has gained recent attention but lacks a unified framework for analysis. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive PAC-Bayesian framework to examine pessimism with regularized importance weighting. We derive a tractable PAC-Bayesian generalization bound that universally applies to common importance weight regularizations, enabling their comparison within a single framework. Our empirical results challenge common understanding, demonstrating the effectiveness of standard IW regularization techniques.

David Rohde

Applied recommender systems research is in a curious position. While there is a very rigorous protocol for measuring performance by A/B testing, best practice for finding a `B' to test does not explicitly target performance but rather targets a proxy measure. The success or failure of a given A/B test then depends entirely on if the proposed proxy is better correlated to performance than the previous proxy. No principle exists to identify if one proxy is better than another offline, leaving the practitioners shooting in the dark. The purpose of this position paper is to question this anti-Utopian thinking and argue that a non-standard use of the deep learning stacks actually has the potential to unlock reward optimizing recommendation.

Imad Aouali, Sergey Ivanov, Mike Gartrell et al.

We consider the problem of slate recommendation, where the recommender system presents a user with a collection or slate composed of K recommended items at once. If the user finds the recommended items appealing then the user may click and the recommender system receives some feedback. Two pieces of information are available to the recommender system: was the slate clicked? (the reward), and if the slate was clicked, which item was clicked? (rank). In this paper, we formulate several Bayesian models that incorporate the reward signal (Reward model), the rank signal (Rank model), or both (Full model), for non-personalized slate recommendation. In our experiments, we analyze performance gains of the Full model and show that it achieves significantly lower error as the number of products in the catalog grows or as the slate size increases.

Philomène Chagniot, Flavian Vasile, David Rohde

Recommender systems are often optimised for short-term reward: a recommendation is considered successful if a reward (e.g. a click) can be observed immediately after the recommendation. The advantage of this framework is that with some reasonable (although questionable) assumptions, it allows familiar supervised learning tools to be used for the recommendation task. However, it means that long-term business metrics, e.g. sales or retention are ignored. In this paper we introduce a framework for modeling long-term rewards in the RecoGym simulation environment. We use this newly introduced functionality to showcase problems introduced by the last-click attribution scheme in the case of conversion-optimized recommendations and propose a simple extension that leads to state-of-the-art results.

Finnian Lattimore, David Rohde

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explicitly model our assumptions on the impact of intervening in a system, provided we do so, estimating causal effects can be done entirely within the standard Bayesian paradigm. The invariance assumptions underlying causal graphical models can be encoded in ordinary Probabilistic graphical models, allowing causal estimation with Bayesian statistics, equivalent to the do-calculus.

Otmane Sakhi, Stephen Bonner, David Rohde et al.

The combination of the re-parameterization trick with the use of variational auto-encoders has caused a sensation in Bayesian deep learning, allowing the training of realistic generative models of images and has considerably increased our ability to use scalable latent variable models. The re-parameterization trick is necessary for models in which no analytical variational bound is available and allows noisy gradients to be computed for arbitrary models. However, for certain standard output layers of a neural network, analytical bounds are available and the variational auto-encoder may be used both without the re-parameterization trick or the need for any Monte Carlo approximation. In this work, we show that using Jaakola and Jordan bound, we can produce a binary classification layer that allows a Bayesian output layer to be trained, using the standard stochastic gradient descent algorithm. We further demonstrate that a latent variable model utilizing the Bouchard bound for multi-class classification allows for fast training of a fully probabilistic latent factor model, even when the number of classes is very large.

Olivier Jeunen, Dmytro Mykhaylov, David Rohde et al.

In machine learning we often try to optimise a decision rule that would have worked well over a historical dataset; this is the so called empirical risk minimisation principle. In the context of learning from recommender system logs, applying this principle becomes a problem because we do not have available the reward of decisions we did not do. In order to handle this "bandit-feedback" setting, several Counterfactual Risk Minimisation (CRM) methods have been proposed in recent years, that attempt to estimate the performance of different policies on historical data. Through importance sampling and various variance reduction techniques, these methods allow more robust learning and inference than classical approaches. It is difficult to accurately estimate the performance of policies that frequently perform actions that were infrequently done in the past and a number of different types of estimators have been proposed. In this paper, we review several methods, based on different off-policy estimators, for learning from bandit feedback. We discuss key differences and commonalities among existing approaches, and compare their empirical performance on the RecoGym simulation environment. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first comparison study for bandit algorithms in a recommender system setting.

Nhan Nguyen-Thanh, Dana Marinca, Kinda Khawam et al.

In this paper, the method UCB-RS, which resorts to recommendation system (RS) for enhancing the upper-confidence bound algorithm UCB, is presented. The proposed method is used for dealing with non-stationary and large-state spaces multi-armed bandit problems. The proposed method has been targeted to the problem of the product recommendation in the online advertising. Through extensive testing with RecoGym, an OpenAI Gym-based reinforcement learning environment for the product recommendation in online advertising, the proposed method outperforms the widespread reinforcement learning schemes such as $ε$-Greedy, Upper Confidence (UCB1) and Exponential Weights for Exploration and Exploitation (EXP3).

Olivier Jeunen, David Rohde, Flavian Vasile

In academic literature, recommender systems are often evaluated on the task of next-item prediction. The procedure aims to give an answer to the question: "Given the natural sequence of user-item interactions up to time t, can we predict which item the user will interact with at time t+1?". Evaluation results obtained through said methodology are then used as a proxy to predict which system will perform better in an online setting. The online setting, however, poses a subtly different question: "Given the natural sequence of user-item interactions up to time t, can we get the user to interact with a recommended item at time t+1?". From a causal perspective, the system performs an intervention, and we want to measure its effect. Next-item prediction is often used as a fall-back objective when information about interventions and their effects (shown recommendations and whether they received a click) is unavailable. When this type of data is available, however, it can provide great value for reliably estimating online recommender system performance. Through a series of simulated experiments with the RecoGym environment, we show where traditional offline evaluation schemes fall short. Additionally, we show how so-called bandit feedback can be exploited for effective offline evaluation that more accurately reflects online performance.

David Rohde

It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous causal effects can be inferred. Given this phenomenon it is common practice to include as many covariates as possible, however such advice comes unstuck in the presence of M-bias. M-Bias is a problem in causal inference where the correct estimation of treatment effects requires that certain variables are not adjusted for i.e. are simply neglected from inclusion in the model. This issue caused a storm of controversy in 2009 when Rubin, Pearl and others disagreed about if it could be problematic to include additional variables in models when inferring causal effects. This paper makes two contributions to this issue. Firstly we provide a Bayesian solution to the M-Bias problem. The solution replicates Pearl's solution, but consistent with Rubin's advice we condition on all variables. Secondly the fact that we are able to offer a solution to this problem in Bayesian terms shows that it is indeed possible to represent causal relationships within the Bayesian paradigm, albeit in an extended space. We make several remarks on the similarities and differences between causal graphical models which implement the do-calculus and probabilistic graphical models which enable Bayesian statistics. We hope this work will stimulate more research on unifying Pearl's causal calculus using causal graphical models with traditional Bayesian statistics and probabilistic graphical models.

Finnian Lattimore, David Rohde

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do calculus is required has been hotly debated, e.g. Pearl (2001) states "the building blocks of our scientific and everyday knowledge are elementary facts such as "mud does not cause rain" and "symptoms do not cause disease" and those facts, strangely enough, cannot be expressed in the vocabulary of probability calculus". This has lead to a dichotomy between advocates of causal graphical modeling and the do calculus, and researchers applying Bayesian methods. In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explicitly model our assumptions on the impact of intervening in a system, provided we do so, estimating causal effects can be done entirely within the standard Bayesian paradigm. The invariance assumptions underlying causal graphical models can be encoded in ordinary Probabilistic graphical models, allowing causal estimation with Bayesian statistics, equivalent to the do calculus. Elucidating the connections between these approaches is a key step toward enabling the insights provided by each to be combined to solve real problems.

Dmytro Mykhaylov, David Rohde, Flavian Vasile et al.

There are three quite distinct ways to train a machine learning model on recommender system logs. The first method is to model the reward prediction for each possible recommendation to the user, at the scoring time the best recommendation is found by computing an argmax over the personalized recommendations. This method obeys principles such as the conditionality principle and the likelihood principle. A second method is useful when the model does not fit reality and underfits. In this case, we can use the fact that we know the distribution of historical recommendations (concentrated on previously identified good actions with some exploration) to adjust the errors in the fit to be evenly distributed over all actions. Finally, the inverse propensity score can be used to produce an estimate of the decision rules expected performance. The latter two methods violate the conditionality and likelihood principle but are shown to have good performance in certain settings. In this paper we review the literature around this fundamental, yet often overlooked choice and do some experiments using the RecoGym simulation environment.

David Rohde, Stephen Bonner

Session based recommendation provides an attractive alternative to the traditional feature engineering approach to recommendation. Feature engineering approaches require hand tuned features of the users history to be created to produce a context vector. In contrast a session based approach is able to dynamically model the users state as they act. We present a probabilistic framework for session based recommendation. A latent variable for the user state is updated as the user views more items and we learn more about their interests. The latent variable model is conceptually simple and elegant; yet requires sophisticated computational technique to approximate the integral over the latent variable. We provide computational solutions using both the re-parameterization trick and also using the Bouchard bound for the softmax function, we further explore employing a variational auto-encoder and a variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm for tightening the variational bound. The model performs well against a number of baselines. The intuitive nature of the model allows an elegant formulation combining correlations between items and their popularity and that sheds light on other popular recommendation methods. An attractive feature of the latent variable approach is that, as the user continues to act, the posterior on the user's state tightens reflecting the recommender system's increased knowledge about that user.

David Rohde, Stephen Bonner, Travis Dunlop et al.

Recommender Systems are becoming ubiquitous in many settings and take many forms, from product recommendation in e-commerce stores, to query suggestions in search engines, to friend recommendation in social networks. Current research directions which are largely based upon supervised learning from historical data appear to be showing diminishing returns with a lot of practitioners report a discrepancy between improvements in offline metrics for supervised learning and the online performance of the newly proposed models. One possible reason is that we are using the wrong paradigm: when looking at the long-term cycle of collecting historical performance data, creating a new version of the recommendation model, A/B testing it and then rolling it out. We see that there a lot of commonalities with the reinforcement learning (RL) setup, where the agent observes the environment and acts upon it in order to change its state towards better states (states with higher rewards). To this end we introduce RecoGym, an RL environment for recommendation, which is defined by a model of user traffic patterns on e-commerce and the users response to recommendations on the publisher websites. We believe that this is an important step forward for the field of recommendation systems research, that could open up an avenue of collaboration between the recommender systems and reinforcement learning communities and lead to better alignment between offline and online performance metrics.