Christopher J. Earls

Toni J. B. Liu, Baran Zadeoğlu, Nicolas Boullé et al.

Large language models (LLMs) make next-token predictions based on clues present in their context, such as semantic descriptions and in-context examples. Yet, elucidating which prior tokens most strongly influence a given prediction remains challenging due to the proliferation of layers and attention heads in modern architectures. We propose Jacobian Scopes, a suite of gradient-based, token-level causal attribution methods for interpreting LLM predictions. By analyzing the linearized relations of final hidden state with respect to inputs, Jacobian Scopes quantify how input tokens influence a model's prediction. We introduce three variants - Semantic, Fisher, and Temperature Scopes - which respectively target sensitivity of specific logits, the full predictive distribution, and model confidence (inverse temperature). Through case studies spanning instruction understanding, translation and in-context learning (ICL), we uncover interesting findings, such as when Jacobian Scopes point to implicit political biases. We believe that our proposed methods also shed light on recently debated mechanisms underlying in-context time-series forecasting. Our code and interactive demonstrations are publicly available at https://github.com/AntonioLiu97/JacobianScopes.

Toni J. B. Liu, Nicolas Boullé, Raphaël Sarfati et al.

Pretrained large language models (LLMs) are surprisingly effective at performing zero-shot tasks, including time-series forecasting. However, understanding the mechanisms behind such capabilities remains highly challenging due to the complexity of the models. We study LLMs' ability to extrapolate the behavior of dynamical systems whose evolution is governed by principles of physical interest. Our results show that LLaMA 2, a language model trained primarily on texts, achieves accurate predictions of dynamical system time series without fine-tuning or prompt engineering. Moreover, the accuracy of the learned physical rules increases with the length of the input context window, revealing an in-context version of neural scaling law. Along the way, we present a flexible and efficient algorithm for extracting probability density functions of multi-digit numbers directly from LLMs.

Jiajun Bao, Nicolas Boullé, Toni J. B. Liu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated emergent in-context learning (ICL) capabilities across a range of tasks, including zero-shot time-series forecasting. We show that text-trained foundation models can accurately extrapolate spatiotemporal dynamics from discretized partial differential equation (PDE) solutions without fine-tuning or natural language prompting. Predictive accuracy improves with longer temporal contexts but degrades at finer spatial discretizations. In multi-step rollouts, where the model recursively predicts future spatial states over multiple time steps, errors grow algebraically with the time horizon, reminiscent of global error accumulation in classical finite-difference solvers. We interpret these trends as in-context neural scaling laws, where prediction quality varies predictably with both context length and output length. To better understand how LLMs are able to internally process PDE solutions so as to accurately roll them out, we analyze token-level output distributions and uncover a consistent ICL progression: beginning with syntactic pattern imitation, transitioning through an exploratory high-entropy phase, and culminating in confident, numerically grounded predictions.

Christophe Bonneville, Christopher J. Earls

Scientific machine learning has been successfully applied to inverse problems and PDE discovery in computational physics. One caveat concerning current methods is the need for large amounts of ("clean") data, in order to characterize the full system response and discover underlying physical models. Bayesian methods may be particularly promising for overcoming these challenges, as they are naturally less sensitive to the negative effects of sparse and noisy data. In this paper, we propose to use Bayesian neural networks (BNN) in order to: 1) Recover the full system states from measurement data (e.g. temperature, velocity field, etc.). We use Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample the posterior distribution of a deep and dense BNN, and show that it is possible to accurately capture physics of varying complexity, without overfitting. 2) Recover the parameters instantiating the underlying partial differential equation (PDE) governing the physical system. Using the trained BNN, as a surrogate of the system response, we generate datasets of derivatives that are potentially comprising the latent PDE governing the observed system and then perform a sequential threshold Bayesian linear regression (STBLR), between the successive derivatives in space and time, to recover the original PDE parameters. We take advantage of the confidence intervals within the BNN outputs, and introduce the spatial derivatives cumulative variance into the STBLR likelihood, to mitigate the influence of highly uncertain derivative data points; thus allowing for more accurate parameter discovery. We demonstrate our approach on a handful of example, in applied physics and non-linear dynamics.

Nicolas Boullé, Christopher J. Earls, Alex Townsend

There is an opportunity for deep learning to revolutionize science and technology by revealing its findings in a human interpretable manner. To do this, we develop a novel data-driven approach for creating a human-machine partnership to accelerate scientific discovery. By collecting physical system responses under excitations drawn from a Gaussian process, we train rational neural networks to learn Green's functions of hidden linear partial differential equations. These functions reveal human-understandable properties and features, such as linear conservation laws and symmetries, along with shock and singularity locations, boundary effects, and dominant modes. We illustrate the technique on several examples and capture a range of physics, including advection-diffusion, viscous shocks, and Stokes flow in a lid-driven cavity.