Rossella Arcucci

Che Liu, Sibo Cheng, Miaojing Shi et al.

In the field of medical Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP), significant efforts have been devoted to deriving text and image features from both clinical reports and associated medical images. However, most existing methods may have overlooked the opportunity in leveraging the inherent hierarchical structure of clinical reports, which are generally split into `findings' for descriptive content and `impressions' for conclusive observation. Instead of utilizing this rich, structured format, current medical VLP approaches often simplify the report into either a unified entity or fragmented tokens. In this work, we propose a novel clinical prior guided VLP framework named IMITATE to learn the structure information from medical reports with hierarchical vision-language alignment. The framework derives multi-level visual features from the chest X-ray (CXR) images and separately aligns these features with the descriptive and the conclusive text encoded in the hierarchical medical report. Furthermore, a new clinical-informed contrastive loss is introduced for cross-modal learning, which accounts for clinical prior knowledge in formulating sample correlations in contrastive learning. The proposed model, IMITATE, outperforms baseline VLP methods across six different datasets, spanning five medical imaging downstream tasks. Comprehensive experimental results highlight the advantages of integrating the hierarchical structure of medical reports for vision-language alignment. The code related to this paper is available at https://github.com/cheliu-computation/IMITATE-TMI2024.

Che Liu, Anand Shah, Wenjia Bai et al.

Medical Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP) learns representations jointly from medical images and paired radiology reports. It typically requires large-scale paired image-text datasets to achieve effective pre-training for both the image encoder and text encoder. The advent of text-guided generative models raises a compelling question: Can VLP be implemented solely with synthetic images generated from genuine radiology reports, thereby mitigating the need for extensively pairing and curating image-text datasets? In this work, we scrutinize this very question by examining the feasibility and effectiveness of employing synthetic images for medical VLP. We replace real medical images with their synthetic equivalents, generated from authentic medical reports. Utilizing three state-of-the-art VLP algorithms, we exclusively train on these synthetic samples. Our empirical evaluation across three subsequent tasks, namely image classification, semantic segmentation and object detection, reveals that the performance achieved through synthetic data is on par with or even exceeds that obtained with real images. As a pioneering contribution to this domain, we introduce a large-scale synthetic medical image dataset, paired with anonymized real radiology reports. This alleviates the need of sharing medical images, which are not easy to curate and share in practice. The code and the dataset can be found in \href{https://github.com/cheliu-computation/MedSyn-RepLearn/tree/main}{https://github.com/cheliu-computation/MedSyn-RepLearn/tree/main}.

Jun Li, Che Liu, Sibo Cheng et al.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is one of the most commonly used non-invasive, convenient medical monitoring tools that assist in the clinical diagnosis of heart diseases. Recently, deep learning (DL) techniques, particularly self-supervised learning (SSL), have demonstrated great potential in the classification of ECG. SSL pre-training has achieved competitive performance with only a small amount of annotated data after fine-tuning. However, current SSL methods rely on the availability of annotated data and are unable to predict labels not existing in fine-tuning datasets. To address this challenge, we propose Multimodal ECG-Text Self-supervised pre-training (METS), the first work to utilize the auto-generated clinical reports to guide ECG SSL pre-training. We use a trainable ECG encoder and a frozen language model to embed paired ECG and automatically machine-generated clinical reports separately. The SSL aims to maximize the similarity between paired ECG and auto-generated report while minimize the similarity between ECG and other reports. In downstream classification tasks, METS achieves around 10% improvement in performance without using any annotated data via zero-shot classification, compared to other supervised and SSL baselines that rely on annotated data. Furthermore, METS achieves the highest recall and F1 scores on the MIT-BIH dataset, despite MIT-BIH containing different classes of ECG compared to the pre-trained dataset. The extensive experiments have demonstrated the advantages of using ECG-Text multimodal self-supervised learning in terms of generalizability, effectiveness, and efficiency.

Che Liu, Sibo Cheng, Weiping Ding et al.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signals can be considered as multi-variable time-series. The state-of-the-art ECG data classification approaches, based on either feature engineering or deep learning techniques, treat separately spectral and time domains in machine learning systems. No spectral-time domain communication mechanism inside the classifier model can be found in current approaches, leading to difficulties in identifying complex ECG forms. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning model named Spectral Cross-domain neural network (SCDNN) with a new block called Soft-adaptive threshold spectral enhancement (SATSE), to simultaneously reveal the key information embedded in spectral and time domains inside the neural network. More precisely, the domain-cross information is captured by a general Convolutional neural network (CNN) backbone, and different information sources are merged by a self-adaptive mechanism to mine the connection between time and spectral domains. In SATSE, the knowledge from time and spectral domains is extracted via the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) with soft trainable thresholds in modified Sigmoid functions. The proposed SCDNN is tested with several classification tasks implemented on the public ECG databases \textit{PTB-XL} and \textit{MIT-BIH}. SCDNN outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches with a low computational cost regarding a variety of metrics in all classification tasks on both databases, by finding appropriate domains from the infinite spectral mapping. The convergence of the trainable thresholds in the spectral domain is also numerically investigated in this paper. The robust performance of SCDNN provides a new perspective to exploit knowledge across deep learning models from time and spectral domains. The repository can be found: https://github.com/DL-WG/SCDNN-TS

Sibo Cheng, Cesar Quilodran-Casas, Said Ouala et al.

Data Assimilation (DA) and Uncertainty quantification (UQ) are extensively used in analysing and reducing error propagation in high-dimensional spatial-temporal dynamics. Typical applications span from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to geoscience and climate systems. Recently, much effort has been given in combining DA, UQ and machine learning (ML) techniques. These research efforts seek to address some critical challenges in high-dimensional dynamical systems, including but not limited to dynamical system identification, reduced order surrogate modelling, error covariance specification and model error correction. A large number of developed techniques and methodologies exhibit a broad applicability across numerous domains, resulting in the necessity for a comprehensive guide. This paper provides the first overview of the state-of-the-art researches in this interdisciplinary field, covering a wide range of applications. This review aims at ML scientists who attempt to apply DA and UQ techniques to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of their models, but also at DA and UQ experts who intend to integrate cutting-edge ML approaches to their systems. Therefore, this article has a special focus on how ML methods can overcome the existing limits of DA and UQ, and vice versa. Some exciting perspectives of this rapidly developing research field are also discussed.

Sibo Cheng, Jianhua Chen, Charitos Anastasiou et al.

Reduced-order modelling and low-dimensional surrogate models generated using machine learning algorithms have been widely applied in high-dimensional dynamical systems to improve the algorithmic efficiency. In this paper, we develop a system which combines reduced-order surrogate models with a novel data assimilation (DA) technique used to incorporate real-time observations from different physical spaces. We make use of local smooth surrogate functions which link the space of encoded system variables and the one of current observations to perform variational DA with a low computational cost. The new system, named Generalised Latent Assimilation can benefit both the efficiency provided by the reduced-order modelling and the accuracy of data assimilation. A theoretical analysis of the difference between surrogate and original assimilation cost function is also provided in this paper where an upper bound, depending on the size of the local training set, is given. The new approach is tested on a high-dimensional CFD application of a two-phase liquid flow with non-linear observation operators that current Latent Assimilation methods can not handle. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed assimilation approach can significantly improve the reconstruction and prediction accuracy of the deep learning surrogate model which is nearly 1000 times faster than the CFD simulation.

Che Liu, Sibo Cheng, Chen Chen et al.

Medical vision-language models enable co-learning and integrating features from medical imaging and clinical text. However, these models are not easy to train and the latent representation space can be complex. Here we propose a novel way for pre-training and regularising medical vision-language models. The proposed method, named Medical vision-language pre-training with Frozen language models and Latent spAce Geometry optimization (M-FLAG), leverages a frozen language model for training stability and efficiency and introduces a novel orthogonality loss to harmonize the latent space geometry. We demonstrate the potential of the pre-trained model on three downstream tasks: medical image classification, segmentation, and object detection. Extensive experiments across five public datasets demonstrate that M-FLAG significantly outperforms existing medical vision-language pre-training approaches and reduces the number of parameters by 78\%. Notably, M-FLAG achieves outstanding performance on the segmentation task while using only 1\% of the RSNA dataset, even outperforming ImageNet pre-trained models that have been fine-tuned using 100\% of the data.

Yinda Chen, Che Liu, Wei Huang et al.

Vision-Language Pretraining (VLP) has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in learning visual representations from textual descriptions of images without annotations. Yet, effective VLP demands large-scale image-text pairs, a resource that suffers scarcity in the medical domain. Moreover, conventional VLP is limited to 2D images while medical images encompass diverse modalities, often in 3D, making the learning process more challenging. To address these challenges, we present Generative Text-Guided 3D Vision-Language Pretraining for Unified Medical Image Segmentation (GTGM), a framework that extends of VLP to 3D medical images without relying on paired textual descriptions. Specifically, GTGM utilizes large language models (LLM) to generate medical-style text from 3D medical images. This synthetic text is then used to supervise 3D visual representation learning. Furthermore, a negative-free contrastive learning objective strategy is introduced to cultivate consistent visual representations between augmented 3D medical image patches, which effectively mitigates the biases associated with strict positive-negative sample pairings. We evaluate GTGM on three imaging modalities - Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), and electron microscopy (EM) over 13 datasets. GTGM's superior performance across various medical image segmentation tasks underscores its effectiveness and versatility, by enabling VLP extension into 3D medical imagery while bypassing the need for paired text.

Che Liu, Zhongwei Wan, Sibo Cheng et al.

In the domain of cardiovascular healthcare, the Electrocardiogram (ECG) serves as a critical, non-invasive diagnostic tool. Although recent strides in self-supervised learning (SSL) have been promising for ECG representation learning, these techniques often require annotated samples and struggle with classes not present in the fine-tuning stages. To address these limitations, we introduce ECG-Text Pre-training (ETP), an innovative framework designed to learn cross-modal representations that link ECG signals with textual reports. For the first time, this framework leverages the zero-shot classification task in the ECG domain. ETP employs an ECG encoder along with a pre-trained language model to align ECG signals with their corresponding textual reports. The proposed framework excels in both linear evaluation and zero-shot classification tasks, as demonstrated on the PTB-XL and CPSC2018 datasets, showcasing its ability for robust and generalizable cross-modal ECG feature learning.

Sibo Cheng, Che Liu, Yike Guo et al.

Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has been broadly used in engineering problems for field reconstruction and prediction by performing a weighted combination of multiple sources of noisy data. In recent years, the integration of deep learning (DL) techniques in DA has shown promise in improving the efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional dynamical systems. Nevertheless, existing deep DA approaches face difficulties in dealing with unstructured observation data, especially when the placement and number of sensors are dynamic over time. We introduce a novel variational DA scheme, named Voronoi-tessellation Inverse operator for VariatIonal Data assimilation (VIVID), that incorporates a DL inverse operator into the assimilation objective function. By leveraging the capabilities of the Voronoi-tessellation and convolutional neural networks, VIVID is adept at handling sparse, unstructured, and time-varying sensor data. Furthermore, the incorporation of the DL inverse operator establishes a direct link between observation and state space, leading to a reduction in the number of minimization steps required for DA. Additionally, VIVID can be seamlessly integrated with Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to develop an end-to-end reduced-order DA scheme, which can further expedite field reconstruction. Numerical experiments in a fluid dynamics system demonstrate that VIVID can significantly outperform existing DA and DL algorithms. The robustness of VIVID is also accessed through the application of various levels of prior error, the utilization of varying numbers of sensors, and the misspecification of error covariance in DA.

Sibo Cheng, Yike Guo, Rossella Arcucci

Recent increase in wildfires worldwide has led to the need for real-time fire nowcasting. Physics-driven models, such as cellular automata and computational fluid dynamics can provide high-fidelity fire spread simulations but they are computationally expensive and time-consuming. Much effort has been put into developing machine learning models for fire prediction. However, these models are often region-specific and require a substantial quantity of simulation data for training purpose. This results in a significant amount of computational effort for different ecoregions. In this work, a generative model is proposed using a three-dimensional Vector-Quantized Variational Autoencoders to generate spatial-temporal sequences of unseen wildfire burned areas in a given ecoregion. The model is tested in the ecoregion of a recent massive wildfire event in California, known as the Chimney fire. Numerical results show that the model succeed in generating coherent and structured fire scenarios, taking into account the impact from geophysical variables, such as vegetation and slope. Generated data are also used to train a surrogate model for predicting wildfire dissemination, which has been tested on both simulation data and the real Chimney fire event.

Sibo Cheng, Jinyang Min, Che Liu et al.

Data assimilation techniques are often confronted with challenges handling complex high dimensional physical systems, because high precision simulation in complex high dimensional physical systems is computationally expensive and the exact observation functions that can be applied in these systems are difficult to obtain. It prompts growing interest in integrating deep learning models within data assimilation workflows, but current software packages for data assimilation cannot handle deep learning models inside. This study presents a novel Python package seamlessly combining data assimilation with deep neural networks to serve as models for state transition and observation functions. The package, named TorchDA, implements Kalman Filter, Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), 3D Variational (3DVar), and 4D Variational (4DVar) algorithms, allowing flexible algorithm selection based on application requirements. Comprehensive experiments conducted on the Lorenz 63 and a two-dimensional shallow water system demonstrate significantly enhanced performance over standalone model predictions without assimilation. The shallow water analysis validates data assimilation capabilities mapping between different physical quantity spaces in either full space or reduced order space. Overall, this innovative software package enables flexible integration of deep learning representations within data assimilation, conferring a versatile tool to tackle complex high dimensional dynamical systems across scientific domains.

Sibo Cheng, Hector Chassagnon, Matthew Kasoar et al.

Global wildfire models play a crucial role in anticipating and responding to changing wildfire regimes. JULES-INFERNO is a global vegetation and fire model simulating wildfire emissions and area burnt on a global scale. However, because of the high data dimensionality and system complexity, JULES-INFERNO's computational costs make it challenging to apply to fire risk forecasting with unseen initial conditions. Typically, running JULES-INFERNO for 30 years of prediction will take several hours on High Performance Computing (HPC) clusters. To tackle this bottleneck, two data-driven models are built in this work based on Deep Learning techniques to surrogate the JULES-INFERNO model and speed up global wildfire forecasting. More precisely, these machine learning models take global temperature, vegetation density, soil moisture and previous forecasts as inputs to predict the subsequent global area burnt on an iterative basis. Average Error per Pixel (AEP) and Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) are used as metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed surrogate models. A fine tuning strategy is also proposed in this work to improve the algorithm performance for unseen scenarios. Numerical results show a strong performance of the proposed models, in terms of both computational efficiency (less than 20 seconds for 30 years of prediction on a laptop CPU) and prediction accuracy (with AEP under 0.3\% and SSIM over 98\% compared to the outputs of JULES-INFERNO).

Sicheng Wang, Che Liu, Rossella Arcucci

Recent advancements in medical vision-language pre-training (MedVLP) have significantly enhanced zero-shot medical vision tasks such as image classification by leveraging large-scale medical image-text pair pre-training. However, the performance of these tasks can be heavily influenced by the variability in textual prompts describing the categories, necessitating robustness in MedVLP models to diverse prompt styles. Yet, this sensitivity remains underexplored. In this work, we are the first to systematically assess the sensitivity of three widely-used MedVLP methods to a variety of prompts across 15 different diseases. To achieve this, we designed six unique prompt styles to mirror real clinical scenarios, which were subsequently ranked by interpretability. Our findings indicate that all MedVLP models evaluated show unstable performance across different prompt styles, suggesting a lack of robustness. Additionally, the models' performance varied with increasing prompt interpretability, revealing difficulties in comprehending complex medical concepts. This study underscores the need for further development in MedVLP methodologies to enhance their robustness to diverse zero-shot prompts.

Romain Molinas, César Quilodrán Casas, Rossella Arcucci et al.

This paper proposes a novel approach to predict epidemiological parameters by integrating new real-time signals from various sources of information, such as novel social media-based population density maps and Air Quality data. We implement an ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) models using various data sources and fusion methodology to build robust predictions and simulate several dynamic parameters that could improve the decision-making process for policymakers. Additionally, we used data assimilation to estimate the state of our system from fused CNN predictions. The combination of meteorological signals and social media-based population density maps improved the performance and flexibility of our prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in London. While the proposed approach outperforms standard models, such as compartmental models traditionally used in disease forecasting (SEIR), generating robust and consistent predictions allows us to increase the stability of our model while increasing its accuracy.

Che Liu, Zhongwei Wan, Cheng Ouyang et al.

Electrocardiograms (ECGs) are non-invasive diagnostic tools crucial for detecting cardiac arrhythmic diseases in clinical practice. While ECG Self-supervised Learning (eSSL) methods show promise in representation learning from unannotated ECG data, they often overlook the clinical knowledge that can be found in reports. This oversight and the requirement for annotated samples for downstream tasks limit eSSL's versatility. In this work, we address these issues with the Multimodal ECG Representation Learning (MERL}) framework. Through multimodal learning on ECG records and associated reports, MERL is capable of performing zero-shot ECG classification with text prompts, eliminating the need for training data in downstream tasks. At test time, we propose the Clinical Knowledge Enhanced Prompt Engineering (CKEPE) approach, which uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to exploit external expert-verified clinical knowledge databases, generating more descriptive prompts and reducing hallucinations in LLM-generated content to boost zero-shot classification. Based on MERL, we perform the first benchmark across six public ECG datasets, showing the superior performance of MERL compared against eSSL methods. Notably, MERL achieves an average AUC score of 75.2% in zero-shot classification (without training data), 3.2% higher than linear probed eSSL methods with 10\% annotated training data, averaged across all six datasets. Code and models are available at https://github.com/cheliu-computation/MERL

Yinda Chen, Che Liu, Xiaoyu Liu et al.

The burgeoning integration of 3D medical imaging into healthcare has led to a substantial increase in the workload of medical professionals. To assist clinicians in their diagnostic processes and alleviate their workload, the development of a robust system for retrieving similar case studies presents a viable solution. While the concept holds great promise, the field of 3D medical text-image retrieval is currently limited by the absence of robust evaluation benchmarks and curated datasets. To remedy this, our study presents a groundbreaking dataset, {BIMCV-R}, which includes an extensive collection of 8,069 3D CT volumes, encompassing over 2 million slices, paired with their respective radiological reports. Expanding upon the foundational work of our dataset, we craft a retrieval strategy, MedFinder. This approach employs a dual-stream network architecture, harnessing the potential of large language models to advance the field of medical image retrieval beyond existing text-image retrieval solutions. It marks our preliminary step towards developing a system capable of facilitating text-to-image, image-to-text, and keyword-based retrieval tasks. Our project is available at \url{https://huggingface.co/datasets/cyd0806/BIMCV-R}.

Zhongwei Wan, Che Liu, Xin Wang et al.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is the primary non-invasive diagnostic tool for monitoring cardiac conditions and is crucial in assisting clinicians. Recent studies have concentrated on classifying cardiac conditions using ECG data but have overlooked ECG report generation, which is time-consuming and requires clinical expertise. To automate ECG report generation and ensure its versatility, we propose the Multimodal ECG Instruction Tuning (MEIT) framework, the first attempt to tackle ECG report generation with LLMs and multimodal instructions. To facilitate future research, we establish a benchmark to evaluate MEIT with various LLMs backbones across two large-scale ECG datasets. Our approach uniquely aligns the representations of the ECG signal and the report, and we conduct extensive experiments to benchmark MEIT with nine open-source LLMs using more than 800,000 ECG reports. MEIT's results underscore the superior performance of instruction-tuned LLMs, showcasing their proficiency in quality report generation, zero-shot capabilities, resilience to signal perturbation, and alignment with human expert evaluation. These findings emphasize the efficacy of MEIT and its potential for real-world clinical application.

Che Liu, Jiazhen Pan, Weixiang Shen et al.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) trained on web-scale corpora excel at natural image tasks and are increasingly repurposed for healthcare; however, their competence in medical tasks remains underexplored. We present a comprehensive evaluation of open-source general-purpose and medically specialised VLMs, ranging from 3B to 72B parameters, across eight benchmarks: MedXpert, OmniMedVQA, PMC-VQA, PathVQA, MMMU, SLAKE, and VQA-RAD. To observe model performance across different aspects, we first separate it into understanding and reasoning components. Three salient findings emerge. First, large general-purpose models already match or surpass medical-specific counterparts on several benchmarks, demonstrating strong zero-shot transfer from natural to medical images. Second, reasoning performance is consistently lower than understanding, highlighting a critical barrier to safe decision support. Third, performance varies widely across benchmarks, reflecting differences in task design, annotation quality, and knowledge demands. No model yet reaches the reliability threshold for clinical deployment, underscoring the need for stronger multimodal alignment and more rigorous, fine-grained evaluation protocols.

Daniel Seal, Rossella Arcucci, Salva Rühling-Cachay et al.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme precipitation events, making weather disasters such as flooding and landslides more likely. The ability to accurately nowcast precipitation is therefore becoming more critical for safeguarding society by providing immediate, accurate information to decision makers. Motivated by the recent success of generative models at precipitation nowcasting, this paper: extends the DYffusion framework to this task and evaluates its performance at forecasting IMERG satellite precipitation data up to a 4-hour horizon; modifies the DYffusion framework to improve its ability to model rainfall data; and introduces a novel loss function that combines MSE, MAE and the LPIPS perceptual score. In a quantitative evaluation of forecasts up to a 4-hour horizon, the modified DYffusion framework trained with the novel loss outperforms four competitor models. It has the highest CSI scores for weak, moderate, and heavy rain thresholds and retains an LPIPS score $<$ 0.2 for the entire roll-out, degrading the least as lead-time increases. The proposed nowcasting model demonstrates visually stable and sharp forecasts up to a 2-hour horizon on a heavy rain case study. Code is available at https://github.com/Dseal95/DYffcast.

Hao Zhou, Sibo Cheng, Rossella Arcucci

Physics-constrained neural networks are commonly employed to enhance prediction robustness compared to purely data-driven models, achieved through the inclusion of physical constraint losses during the model training process. However, one of the major challenges of physics-constrained neural networks consists of the training complexity especially for high-dimensional systems. In fact, conventional physics-constrained models rely on singular-fidelity data necessitating the assessment of physical constraints within high-dimensional fields, which introduces computational difficulties. Furthermore, due to the fixed input size of the neural networks, employing multi-fidelity training data can also be cumbersome. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Scale Physics-Constrained Neural Network (MSPCNN), which offers a novel methodology for incorporating data with different levels of fidelity into a unified latent space through a customised multi-fidelity autoencoder. Additionally, multiple decoders are concurrently trained to map latent representations of inputs into various fidelity physical spaces. As a result, during the training of predictive models, physical constraints can be evaluated within low-fidelity spaces, yielding a trade-off between training efficiency and accuracy. In addition, unlike conventional methods, MSPCNN also manages to employ multi-fidelity data to train the predictive model. We assess the performance of MSPCNN in two fluid dynamics problems, namely a two-dimensional Burgers' system and a shallow water system. Numerical results clearly demonstrate the enhancement of prediction accuracy and noise robustness when introducing physical constraints in low-fidelity fields. On the other hand, as expected, the training complexity can be significantly reduced by computing physical constraint loss in the low-fidelity field rather than the high-fidelity one.

Che Liu, Haozhe Wang, Jiazhen Pan et al.

Improving performance on complex tasks and enabling interpretable decision making in large language models (LLMs), especially for clinical applications, requires effective reasoning. Yet this remains challenging without supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on costly chain-of-thought (CoT) data distilled from closed-source models (e.g., GPT-4o). In this work, we present AlphaMed, the first medical LLM to show that reasoning capability can emerge purely through reinforcement learning (RL), using minimalist rule-based rewards on public multiple-choice QA datasets, without relying on SFT or distilled CoT data. AlphaMed achieves state-of-the-art results on six medical QA benchmarks, outperforming models trained with conventional SFT+RL pipelines. On challenging benchmarks (e.g., MedXpert), AlphaMed even surpasses larger or closed-source models such as DeepSeek-V3-671B and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. To understand the factors behind this success, we conduct a comprehensive data-centric analysis guided by three questions: (i) Can minimalist rule-based RL incentivize reasoning without distilled CoT supervision? (ii) How do dataset quantity and diversity impact reasoning? (iii) How does question difficulty shape the emergence and generalization of reasoning? Our findings show that dataset informativeness is a key driver of reasoning performance, and that minimalist RL on informative, multiple-choice QA data is effective at inducing reasoning without CoT supervision. We also observe divergent trends across benchmarks, underscoring limitations in current evaluation and the need for more challenging, reasoning-oriented medical QA benchmarks.

Sibo Cheng, Marc Bocquet, Weiping Ding et al.

Unstructured grid data are essential for modelling complex geometries and dynamics in computational physics. Yet, their inherent irregularity presents significant challenges for conventional machine learning (ML) techniques. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advanced ML methodologies designed to handle unstructured grid data in high-dimensional dynamical systems. Key approaches discussed include graph neural networks, transformer models with spatial attention mechanisms, interpolation-integrated ML methods, and meshless techniques such as physics-informed neural networks. These methodologies have proven effective across diverse fields, including fluid dynamics and environmental simulations. This review is intended as a guidebook for computational scientists seeking to apply ML approaches to unstructured grid data in their domains, as well as for ML researchers looking to address challenges in computational physics. It places special focus on how ML methods can overcome the inherent limitations of traditional numerical techniques and, conversely, how insights from computational physics can inform ML development. To support benchmarking, this review also provides a summary of open-access datasets of unstructured grid data in computational physics. Finally, emerging directions such as generative models with unstructured data, reinforcement learning for mesh generation, and hybrid physics-data-driven paradigms are discussed to inspire future advancements in this evolving field.

Che Liu, Zhongwei Wan, Haozhe Wang et al.

Medical Vision-Language Pre-training (MedVLP) has made significant progress in enabling zero-shot tasks for medical image understanding. However, training MedVLP models typically requires large-scale datasets with paired, high-quality image-text data, which are scarce in the medical domain. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) and diffusion models have made it possible to generate large-scale synthetic image-text pairs. This raises the question: "Can MedVLP succeed using purely synthetic data?" To address this, we use off-the-shelf generative models to create synthetic radiology reports and paired Chest X-ray (CXR) images, and propose an automated pipeline to build a diverse, high-quality synthetic dataset, enabling a rigorous study that isolates model and training settings, focusing entirely from the data perspective. Our results show that MedVLP models trained exclusively on synthetic data outperform those trained on real data by 3.8% in averaged AUC on zero-shot classification. Moreover, using a combination of synthetic and real data leads to a further improvement of 9.07%. Additionally, MedVLP models trained on synthetic or mixed data consistently outperform those trained on real data in zero-shot grounding, as well as in fine-tuned classification and segmentation tasks. Our analysis suggests MedVLP trained on well-designed synthetic data can outperform models trained on real datasets, which may be limited by low-quality samples and long-tailed distributions.

Jiuming Qin, Che Liu, Sibo Cheng et al.

Modern healthcare often utilises radiographic images alongside textual reports for diagnostics, encouraging the use of Vision-Language Self-Supervised Learning (VL-SSL) with large pre-trained models to learn versatile medical vision representations. However, most existing VL-SSL frameworks are trained end-to-end, which is computation-heavy and can lose vital prior information embedded in pre-trained encoders. To address both issues, we introduce the backbone-agnostic Adaptor framework, which preserves medical knowledge in pre-trained image and text encoders by keeping them frozen, and employs a lightweight Adaptor module for cross-modal learning. Experiments on medical image classification and segmentation tasks across three datasets reveal that our framework delivers competitive performance while cutting trainable parameters by over 90% compared to current pre-training approaches. Notably, when fine-tuned with just 1% of data, Adaptor outperforms several Transformer-based methods trained on full datasets in medical image segmentation.

Che Liu, Yinda Chen, Haoyuan Shi et al.

The advent of large-scale vision foundation models, pre-trained on diverse natural images, has marked a paradigm shift in computer vision. However, how the frontier vision foundation models' efficacies transfer to specialized domains remains such as medical imaging remains an open question. This report investigates whether DINOv3, a state-of-the-art self-supervised vision transformer (ViT) that features strong capability in dense prediction tasks, can directly serve as a powerful, unified encoder for medical vision tasks without domain-specific pre-training. To answer this, we benchmark DINOv3 across common medical vision tasks, including 2D/3D classification and segmentation on a wide range of medical imaging modalities. We systematically analyze its scalability by varying model sizes and input image resolutions. Our findings reveal that DINOv3 shows impressive performance and establishes a formidable new baseline. Remarkably, it can even outperform medical-specific foundation models like BiomedCLIP and CT-Net on several tasks, despite being trained solely on natural images. However, we identify clear limitations: The model's features degrade in scenarios requiring deep domain specialization, such as in Whole-Slide Pathological Images (WSIs), Electron Microscopy (EM), and Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Furthermore, we observe that DINOv3 does not consistently obey scaling law in the medical domain; performance does not reliably increase with larger models or finer feature resolutions, showing diverse scaling behaviors across tasks. Ultimately, our work establishes DINOv3 as a strong baseline, whose powerful visual features can serve as a robust prior for multiple complex medical tasks. This opens promising future directions, such as leveraging its features to enforce multiview consistency in 3D reconstruction.

Dayou Chen, Sibo Cheng, Jinwei Hu et al.

Wildfire prediction has become increasingly crucial due to the escalating impacts of climate change. Traditional CNN-based wildfire prediction models struggle with handling missing oceanic data and addressing the long-range dependencies across distant regions in meteorological data. In this paper, we introduce an innovative Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based model for global wildfire prediction. We propose a hybrid model that combines the spatial prowess of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with the temporal depth of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our approach uniquely transforms global climate and wildfire data into a graph representation, addressing challenges such as null oceanic data locations and long-range dependencies inherent in traditional models. Benchmarking against established architectures using an unseen ensemble of JULES-INFERNO simulations, our model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we emphasise the model's explainability, unveiling potential wildfire correlation clusters through community detection and elucidating feature importance via Integrated Gradient analysis. Our findings not only advance the methodological domain of wildfire prediction but also underscore the importance of model transparency, offering valuable insights for stakeholders in wildfire management.

Jun Li, Che Liu, Wenjia Bai et al.

Visual Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in visual grounding tasks. However, their effectiveness in the medical domain, particularly for abnormality detection and localization within medical images, remains underexplored. A major challenge is the complex and abstract nature of medical terminology, which makes it difficult to directly associate pathological anomaly terms with their corresponding visual features. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to enhance VLM performance in medical abnormality detection and localization by leveraging decomposed medical knowledge. Instead of directly prompting models to recognize specific abnormalities, we focus on breaking down medical concepts into fundamental attributes and common visual patterns. This strategy promotes a stronger alignment between textual descriptions and visual features, improving both the recognition and localization of abnormalities in medical images.We evaluate our method on the 0.23B Florence-2 base model and demonstrate that it achieves comparable performance in abnormality grounding to significantly larger 7B LLaVA-based medical VLMs, despite being trained on only 1.5% of the data used for such models. Experimental results also demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in both known and previously unseen abnormalities, suggesting its strong generalization capabilities.

Che Liu, Cheng Ouyang, Zhongwei Wan et al.

Recent advances in multimodal ECG representation learning center on aligning ECG signals with paired free-text reports. However, suboptimal alignment persists due to the complexity of medical language and the reliance on a full 12-lead setup, which is often unavailable in under-resourced settings. To tackle these issues, we propose **K-MERL**, a knowledge-enhanced multimodal ECG representation learning framework. **K-MERL** leverages large language models to extract structured knowledge from free-text reports and employs a lead-aware ECG encoder with dynamic lead masking to accommodate arbitrary lead inputs. Evaluations on six external ECG datasets show that **K-MERL** achieves state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot classification and linear probing tasks, while delivering an average **16%** AUC improvement over existing methods in partial-lead zero-shot classification.

Bo Pang, Sibo Cheng, Yuhan Huang et al.

Predicting the extent of massive wildfires once ignited is essential to reduce the subsequent socioeconomic losses and environmental damage, but challenging because of the complexity of fire behaviour. Existing physics-based models are limited in predicting large or long-duration wildfire events. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based predictive model, Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN), that uses spatial features derived from both near real-time and reanalysis data on the environmental and meteorological drivers of wildfire. We trained and tested this model using more than 300 individual wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2019 in the western US. In contrast to existing models, the performance of FIDN does not degrade with fire size or duration. Furthermore, it predicts final burnt area accurately even in very heterogeneous landscapes in terms of fuel density and flammability. The FIDN model showed higher accuracy, with a mean squared error (MSE) about 82% and 67% lower than those of the predictive models based on cellular automata (CA) and the minimum travel time (MTT) approaches, respectively. Its structural similarity index measure (SSIM) averages 97%, outperforming the CA and FlamMap MTT models by 6% and 2%, respectively. Additionally, FIDN is approximately three orders of magnitude faster than both CA and MTT models. The enhanced computational efficiency and accuracy advancements offer vital insights for strategic planning and resource allocation for firefighting operations.

Wenbo Yu, Anirbit Ghosh, Tobias Sebastian Finn et al.

Thanks to recent advances in generative AI, computers can now simulate realistic and complex natural processes. We apply this capability to predict how wildfires spread, a task made difficult by the unpredictable nature of fire and the variety of environmental conditions it depends on. In this study, We present the first denoising diffusion model for predicting wildfire spread, a new kind of AI framework that learns to simulate fires not just as one fixed outcome, but as a range of possible scenarios. By doing so, it accounts for the inherent uncertainty of wildfire dynamics, a feature that traditional models typically fail to represent. Unlike deterministic approaches that generate a single prediction, our model produces ensembles of forecasts that reflect physically meaningful distributions of where fire might go next. This technology could help us develop smarter, faster, and more reliable tools for anticipating wildfire behavior, aiding decision-makers in fire risk assessment and response planning.

Mingsheng Cai, Jiuming Jiang, Wenhao Huang et al.

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is critical for diagnosing and monitoring cardiac health, but obtaining large-scale annotated ECG datasets is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Recent ECG Self-Supervised Learning (eSSL) methods mitigate this by learning features without extensive labels but fail to capture fine-grained clinical semantics and require extensive task-specific fine-tuning. To address these challenges, we propose $\textbf{SuPreME}$, a $\textbf{Su}$pervised $\textbf{Pre}$-training framework for $\textbf{M}$ultimodal $\textbf{E}$CG representation learning. SuPreME is pre-trained using structured diagnostic labels derived from ECG report entities through a one-time offline extraction with Large Language Models (LLMs), which help denoise, standardize cardiac concepts, and improve clinical representation learning. By fusing ECG signals with textual cardiac queries instead of fixed labels, SuPreME enables zero-shot classification of unseen conditions without further fine-tuning. We evaluate SuPreME on six downstream datasets covering 106 cardiac conditions, achieving superior zero-shot AUC performance of $77.20\%$, surpassing state-of-the-art eSSLs by $4.98\%$. Results demonstrate SuPreME's effectiveness in leveraging structured, clinically relevant knowledge for high-quality ECG representations.

Jun Li, Che Liu, Wenjia Bai et al.

In this work, we address the problem of grounding abnormalities in medical images, where the goal is to localize clinical findings based on textual descriptions. While generalist Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel in natural grounding tasks, they often struggle in the medical domain due to rare, compositional, and domain-specific terms that are poorly aligned with visual patterns. Specialized medical VLMs address this challenge via large-scale domain pretraining, but at the cost of substantial annotation and computational resources. To overcome these limitations, we propose \textbf{Knowledge to Sight (K2Sight)}, a framework that introduces structured semantic supervision by decomposing clinical concepts into interpretable visual attributes, such as shape, density, and anatomical location. These attributes are distilled from domain ontologies and encoded into concise instruction-style prompts, which guide region-text alignment during training. Unlike conventional report-level supervision, our approach explicitly bridges domain knowledge and spatial structure, enabling data-efficient training of compact models. We train compact models with 0.23B and 2B parameters using only 1.5\% of the data required by state-of-the-art medical VLMs. Despite their small size and limited training data, these models achieve performance on par with or better than 7B+ medical VLMs, with up to 9.82\% improvement in $mAP_{50}$. Code and models: \href{https://lijunrio.github.io/K2Sight/}{\textcolor{SOTAPink}{https://lijunrio.github.io/K2Sight/}}.

Zhihua Liu, Lei Tong, Xilin He et al.

Existed echocardiography segmentation methods often suffer from anatomical inconsistency challenge caused by shape variation, partial observation and region ambiguity with similar intensity across 2D echocardiographic sequences, resulting in false positive segmentation with anatomical defeated structures in challenging low signal-to-noise ratio conditions. To provide a strong anatomical guarantee across different echocardiographic frames, we propose a novel segmentation framework named BOTM (Bi-directional Optimal Token Matching) that performs echocardiography segmentation and optimal anatomy transportation simultaneously. Given paired echocardiographic images, BOTM learns to match two sets of discrete image tokens by finding optimal correspondences from a novel anatomical transportation perspective. We further extend the token matching into a bi-directional cross-transport attention proxy to regulate the preserved anatomical consistency within the cardiac cyclic deformation in temporal domain. Extensive experimental results show that BOTM can generate stable and accurate segmentation outcomes (e.g. -1.917 HD on CAMUS2H LV, +1.9% Dice on TED), and provide a better matching interpretation with anatomical consistency guarantee.

Che Liu, Zhongwei Wan, Yuqi Wang et al.

Automatic radiology report generation holds significant potential to streamline the labor-intensive process of report writing by radiologists, particularly for 3D radiographs such as CT scans. While CT scans are critical for clinical diagnostics, they remain less explored compared to 2D radiographs. To date, there has been no comprehensive benchmark for 3D radiograph report generation (3DRRG), nor sufficient investigation into the optimal training strategies for Vision Language Models (VLMs) in this context, particularly with respect to vision encoder choices, visual token compression, and model scaling. In this work, we make three key contributions. We curate **CT-3DRRG**, the largest **publicly** available 3D CT-report dataset, establishing a robust and diverse benchmark for evaluating VLM performance on 3DRRG. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive training recipe for building high-performing VLMs for 3DRRG, exploring key factors such as vision encoder pretraining strategies, visual token compression, and the impact of data & model scale. Guided by these findings, we introduce **Argus**, a state-of-the-art family of VLMs that achieve superior performance across different model sizes and input 3D medical image resolutions, efficiently processing high-resolution 3D images up to $512 \times 512 \times 256$[^1].

Robert Platt, Rossella Arcucci, Cédric M. John

Hyperspectral data acquired by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) have allowed for unparalleled mapping of the surface mineralogy of Mars. Due to sensor degradation over time, a significant portion of the recently acquired data is considered unusable. Here a new data-driven model architecture, Noise2Noise4Mars (N2N4M), is introduced to remove noise from CRISM images. Our model is self-supervised and does not require zero-noise target data, making it well suited for use in Planetary Science applications where high quality labelled data is scarce. We demonstrate its strong performance on synthetic-noise data and CRISM images, and its impact on downstream classification performance, outperforming benchmark methods on most metrics. This allows for detailed analysis for critical sites of interest on the Martian surface, including proposed lander sites.

Wenqi Wang, Jacob Bieker, Rossella Arcucci et al.

In recent years, the convergence of data-driven machine learning models with Data Assimilation (DA) offers a promising avenue for enhancing weather forecasting. This study delves into this emerging trend, presenting our methodologies and outcomes. We harnessed the UK's local ERA5 850 hPa temperature data and refined the U-STN12 global weather forecasting model, tailoring its predictions to the UK's climate nuances. From the ASOS network, we sourced T2m data, representing ground observations across the UK. We employed the advanced kriging method with a polynomial drift term for consistent spatial resolution. Furthermore, Gaussian noise was superimposed on the ERA5 T850 data, setting the stage for ensuing multi-time step synthetic observations. Probing into the assimilation impacts, the ASOS T2m data was integrated with the ERA5 T850 dataset. Our insights reveal that while global forecast models can adapt to specific regions, incorporating atmospheric data in DA significantly bolsters model accuracy. Conversely, the direct assimilation of surface temperature data tends to mitigate this enhancement, tempering the model's predictive prowess.

Zhongwei Wan, Che Liu, Mi Zhang et al.

The scarcity of data presents a critical obstacle to the efficacy of medical visionlanguage pre-training (VLP). A potential solution lies in the combination of datasets from various language communities. Nevertheless, the main challenge stems from the complexity of integrating diverse syntax and semantics, language-specific medical terminology, and culture-specific implicit knowledge. Therefore, one crucial aspect to consider is the presence of community bias caused by different languages. This paper presents a novel framework named Unifying Cross-Lingual Medical Vision-Language Pre-Training (Med-UniC), designed to integrate multimodal medical data from the two most prevalent languages, English and Spanish. Specifically, we propose Cross-lingual Text Alignment Regularization (CTR) to explicitly unify cross-lingual semantic representations of medical reports originating from diverse language communities. CTR is optimized through latent language disentanglement, rendering our optimization objective to not depend on negative samples, thereby significantly mitigating the bias from determining positive-negative sample pairs within analogous medical reports. Furthermore, it ensures that the cross-lingual representation is not biased toward any specific language community. Med-UniC reaches superior performance across 5 medical image tasks and 10 datasets encompassing over 30 diseases, offering a versatile framework for unifying multi-modal medical data within diverse linguistic communities. The experimental outcomes highlight the presence of community bias in cross-lingual VLP. Reducing this bias enhances the performance not only in vision-language tasks but also in uni-modal visual tasks.

Pierre Browne, Aranildo Lima, Rossella Arcucci et al.

Starting from the Kaya identity, we used a Neural ODE model to predict the evolution of several indicators related to carbon emissions, on a country-level: population, GDP per capita, energy intensity of GDP, carbon intensity of energy. We compared the model with a baseline statistical model - VAR - and obtained good performances. We conclude that this machine-learning approach can be used to produce a wide range of results and give relevant insight to policymakers

Pratha Khandelwal, Philip Nadler, Rossella Arcucci et al.

The nature of available economic data has changed fundamentally in the last decade due to the economy's digitisation. With the prevalence of often black box data-driven machine learning methods, there is a necessity to develop interpretable machine learning methods that can conduct econometric inference, helping policymakers leverage the new nature of economic data. We therefore present a novel Variational Bayesian Inference approach to incorporate a time-varying parameter auto-regressive model which is scalable for big data. Our model is applied to a large blockchain dataset containing prices, transactions of individual actors, analyzing transactional flows and price movements on a very granular level. The model is extendable to any dataset which can be modelled as a dynamical system. We further improve the simple state-space modelling by introducing non-linearities in the forward model with the help of machine learning architectures.

Robin Hendrickx, Rossella Arcucci, Julio Amador Dıaz Lopez et al.

Measuring public opinion is a key focus during democratic elections, enabling candidates to gauge their popularity and alter their campaign strategies accordingly. Traditional survey polling remains the most popular estimation technique, despite its cost and time intensity, measurement errors, lack of real-time capabilities and lagged representation of public opinion. In recent years, Twitter opinion mining has attempted to combat these issues. Despite achieving promising results, it experiences its own set of shortcomings such as an unrepresentative sample population and a lack of long term stability. This paper aims to merge data from both these techniques using Bayesian data assimilation to arrive at a more accurate estimate of true public opinion for the Brexit referendum. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach using Twitter opinion data and survey data from trusted pollsters. Firstly, the possible existence of a time gap of 16 days between the two data sets is identified. This gap is subsequently incorporated into a proposed assimilation architecture. This method was found to adequately incorporate information from both sources and measure a strong upward trend in Leave support leading up to the Brexit referendum. The proposed technique provides useful estimates of true opinion, which is essential to future opinion measurement and forecasting research.

César Quilodrán-Casas, Rossella Arcucci, Laetitia Mottet et al.

This paper presents an approach to improve the forecast of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of urban air pollution using deep learning, and most specifically adversarial training. This adversarial approach aims to reduce the divergence of the forecasts from the underlying physical model. Our two-step method integrates a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) based adversarial autoencoder (PC-AAE) with adversarial Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Once the reduced-order model (ROM) of the CFD solution is obtained via PCA, an adversarial autoencoder is used on the principal components time series. Subsequentially, a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) is adversarially trained on the latent space produced by the PC-AAE to make forecasts. Once trained, the adversarially trained LSTM outperforms a LSTM trained in a classical way. The study area is in South London, including three-dimensional velocity vectors in a busy traffic junction.

César Quilodrán-Casas, Vinicius Santos Silva, Rossella Arcucci et al.

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout the globe infecting over 150 million people and causing the death of over 3.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of epidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseases spread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recent advances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks with the ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computational costs. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to an idealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatial variation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virus spreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from a data-corrected Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network and a predictive Generative Adversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accurate when compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworks are data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UK or in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRS model, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.

Julian Mack, Rossella Arcucci, Miguel Molina-Solana et al.

We propose a new 'Bi-Reduced Space' approach to solving 3D Variational Data Assimilation using Convolutional Autoencoders. We prove that our approach has the same solution as previous methods but has significantly lower computational complexity; in other words, we reduce the computational cost without affecting the data assimilation accuracy. We tested the new method with data from a real-world application: a pollution model of a site in Elephant and Castle, London and found that we could reduce the size of the background covariance matrix representation by O(10^3) and, at the same time, increase our data assimilation accuracy with respect to existing reduced space methods.

César Quilodrán-Casas, Rossella Arcucci, Christopher Pain et al.

This paper presents an approach to improve computational fluid dynamics simulations forecasts of air pollution using deep learning. Our method, which integrates Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and adversarial training, is a way to improve the forecast skill of reduced order models obtained from the original model solution. Once the reduced-order model (ROM) is obtained via PCA, a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) is adversarially trained on the ROM to make forecasts. Once trained, the adversarially trained LSTM outperforms a LSTM trained in a classical way. The study area is in London, including velocities and a concentration tracer that replicates a busy traffic junction. This adversarially trained LSTM-based approach is used on the ROM in order to produce faster forecasts of the air pollution tracer.

Maddalena Amendola, Rossella Arcucci, Laetitia Mottet et al.

There is an urgent need to build models to tackle Indoor Air Quality issue. Since the model should be accurate and fast, Reduced Order Modelling technique is used to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. The accuracy of the model, that represent a dynamic system, is improved integrating real data coming from sensors using Data Assimilation techniques. In this paper, we formulate a new methodology called Latent Assimilation that combines Data Assimilation and Machine Learning. We use a Convolutional neural network to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, a Long-Short-Term-Memory to build a surrogate model of the dynamic system and an Optimal Interpolated Kalman Filter to incorporate real data. Experimental results are provided for CO2 concentration within an indoor space. This methodology can be used for example to predict in real-time the load of virus, such as the SARS-COV-2, in the air by linking it to the concentration of CO2.

Philip Nadler, Shuo Wang, Rossella Arcucci et al.

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation which incorporates new data in real-time through variational data assimilation. We analyze and discuss infection rates in China, the US and Italy. In particular, we develop a custom compartmental SIR model fit to variables related to the epidemic in Chinese cities, named SITR model. We compare and discuss model results which conducts updates as new observations become available. A hybrid data assimilation approach is applied to make results robust to initial conditions. We use the model to do inference on infection numbers as well as parameters such as the disease transmissibility rate or the rate of recovery. The parameterisation of the model is parsimonious and extendable, allowing for the incorporation of additional data and parameters of interest. This allows for scalability and the extension of the model to other locations or the adaption of novel data sources.